Civil Space 2013 Critical Challenges: Safety, Mission Assurance, and Risk Mitigation

1. Civil Space 2013Critical Challenges: Safety, Mission Assurance, and Risk Mitigation Jeff Patton 13 February 2013

2. Atlas & Delta Capabilities to Support Human Spaceflight • Atlas & Delta heritage flying crew dates back to Mercury/Atlas and Gemini/Titan • Atlas & Delta systems have evolved to provide reliable assured access for critical NASA, Air Force and NRO missions • In 2002 NASA selected Atlas V and Delta IV to launch the crewed Orbital Space Plane • Atlas V selected by Boeing and Sierra Nevada to launch their Commercial Crew spacecraft • NASA selected the Delta IV Cryogenic Upper Stage for SLS Existing, flight proven launch vehicles and stages can meet Human Space Flight Needs

3. Atlas and Delta On-Going Launch Operations 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Record of continuous Mission Success • Atlas II, IIAS, III, V – 108 • Atlas V - 37 • Delta II - 97 • Delta IV - 21

4. ULA Experience with Human Certification • Involved with NASA and commercial human rating launch studies over the past 10 years • Involved with NASA human certification requirements development and assessment (8705.2A, 2B, 1100-Series) • Operational tempo and flight experience key to human certification • Detailed understanding of system behavior and environments • System margins and risks • Precise abort criteria for Emergency Detection System (EDS) • Non-crewed missions retire risk prior to first crewed mission Human Certification Is The Interaction Between Requirements And In-depth Systems Knowledge Best Gained With Flight Experience

5. Human Launch Services Focus • Partnership with NASA • Leverage Mission Success Heritage to Create World-Class Safety Culture 100% Human Spaceflight Safety Expanding Our Mission Success Ethic to Embrace Crew Safety as the Highest Value

6. System-Level Crew Safety • Emergency Detection • Monitor Critical Systems Using Independent Fault-tolerant Failure Sensing System • Abort Commands • Fly Instrumentation on All Missions • Already Know Our Envts & In-family Characteristics for Developing EDS • Reliability • Demonstrated Reliability • Experienced People & Proven Management Systems • Single Fault-tolerant Systems • Robust Vehicle Design • Vehicle Characterization • Rigorous, Closed-loopTest-as-you Fly Processes LV Emergency Detection LV Reliability Commercial Crew Spaceflight Approach Intact Abort Capability • Intact Abort Capability • Catastrophic LV Failures Minimized • Benign Abort Environments • Black Zones Eliminated Common Sense System-Level Approach to Achieve Crew Safety

7. NASA Launch Vehicle Certification as Foundation for Crew Launch Certification • Provides a rigorous, documented, and consistent process to mitigate risk • Nuclear Safety Launch Approval Process provides an additional level of safety and government insight for spacecraft carrying radioactive material NASA HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT CERTIFICATION TO GO NUCLEAR LAUNCH APPROVAL NASA CERTIFICATION BODY OF EVIDENCE COMPLETE FLIGHT DATA AND VERIFICATION DATABASE Atlas V & Delta II are the world’s only NASA Category 3 certified vehicles; Atlas V is the only LV with nuclear launch approval

8. ULA Human Spaceflight Certification • Risk Oriented Path • Requirements Oriented Path • Hazard Analysis • Meets-IntentAssessment(DER) • Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) • Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) • Integrated Abort Analysis • Flight History Certification Rationale ULA’s Certification Plan Exercises Both Technical Risk Retirement and Requirements Implementation

9. Requirements Oriented Path • Atlas V Design Equivalency Review (“DER”) Evaluated Existing Atlas V System Relative to NASA 1130/1140 Requirements Documents • Delta Cryogenic Upper Stage Design Requirements Compliance Relative to NASA SLS Specifications DCSS Disposition Count – 1/24/13 3 47 17 217 50

10. Risk Oriented Path Heritage LV Body of Knowledge • Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) • Top down analysis that identifies single-point failures and critical combinations of failure modes for all flight and ground systems • Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) • Systematic, comprehensive discipline that uses a combination of logic and probabilistic modeling tools to quantify risk drivers that affect the crew and mission • Hazard Analysis • The identification, mitigation, and verification of catastrophic hazards on the launch vehicle that can lead to loss of mission/loss of crew Probabilistic Safety Analysis Fault Tree Analysis Crew Safety Hazard Analysis LV System Monitoring/ Sensor List Emergency Detection System Design Thorough Knowledge of Vehicle Characteristics, Anchored in Flight Data, is Crucial to Designing EDS

11. Certification Summary • ULA is Expanding our Mission Success ethic to embrace crew safety as the highest value • ULA is developing the critical safety engineering products to support Human Spaceflight Certification for Commercial Crew and SLS • Human certification is the interaction between requirements and in-depth systems knowledge best gained with flight experience