1 / 11

Main Press Conference EXPO REAL 2009

Main Press Conference EXPO REAL 2009. Claus-Jürgen Cohausz Member of the Management Board, Westdeutsche ImmobilienBank AG. Crisis in the financial markets: What happened?.

Télécharger la présentation

Main Press Conference EXPO REAL 2009

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Main Press Conference EXPO REAL 2009 Claus-Jürgen CohauszMember of the Management Board, Westdeutsche ImmobilienBank AG

  2. Crisis in the financial markets: What happened? • Low interest rates in the US mortgage market and rising property prices led to many mortgages being granted to customers with much lower credit ratings • Loans transformed into tradable securities (globalisation: marketed worldwide) • Restrictive monetary policies of the Federal Reserve caused a rise in interest rates • Payment defaults, compulsory auctions • Property prices fell • Decreasing trust in the quality of securitised property loans • Summer 2007: Securities market collapses • High losses and refinancing difficulties on the part of banks that were involved in the US mortgage market (IKB, SachsenLB, Goldman Sachs, Northern Rock, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, HRE) • September 2008: Bankruptcy of the fourth largest bank in the US: Lehman Brothers • Loss of trust and lack of transparency between the banks: interbank trade comes to a halt • Banks have considerable difficulty in refinancing themselves, which then impacts on lending

  3. Collapse of the main pillars in refinancing • The urgent need of companies and banks to obtain finance/refinance coincides with a shortage of liquidity on the capital markets • Interbank market impaired by the loss of trust • Liquidity available only at a high mark-up • Securities market stalls • Sales of mortgage bonds cease • Refinancing to deadlines is virtually impossible • Limited new business opportunities for the banks

  4. Spread 3M-Euribor vs. 3M-EONIA Swap

  5. CMBS emissions volumes Europe and USA Europe USA in € bn in USD bn 0 0

  6. Transaction volumes in the main German cities drop significantly in € mill. n/a Quelle: Atisreal/BNP Paribas Real Estate

  7. New business: Real-estate finance 1st half 2008 and 1st half 2009 In € bn -42% -82% +3% -41% -46% -57% +29% -21% First-half 2008 First-half 2009

  8. Impact on investors • Higher refinancing costs lead to tougher credit conditions • Expansion of the usual test criteria of: • Property location • Current and possible alternative uses • Sustainability and stability of cash flow • Value development and potential for further enhancement to include • Special consideration of a balanced risk/yield structure • Special consideration of the actual cash flow • Stronger consideration of risks relating to the individual property • Investor required to put in a higher level of equity capital • More hedging of cash-flow risks necessary (equity capital reserves, liabilities) • Shorter credit periods (3-5 years) • Advantages for investors with high capital reserves and a long-term investment horizon • Opportunistic, leverage-oriented investors no longer active in the market

  9. Sales of mortgage bonds in Q2 2009 much improved • At the end of 2008 sales had almost halted entirely (could only be presented at the ECB) • Significant rise in issues in Q2 2009 • July / August are generally weak months because of the summer break Mortage bond sales in € mill. Source: vdp

  10. Mortgage-bond spreads continue to narrow, but still at a higher level • Spread of 10-year mortgage bonds to the 10-year swap (in bps) • Other covered bonds (Spain, UK, etc.) still had much wider spreads • Slight improvement in Q2, helped by the ECB´s buying programme. Sorce: Reuters

  11. Outlook: Situation improving on the markets • Improvement in sentiment is reflected in the figures: order intake, production and export rise in Germany • Company reporting on Q2 leads to growing euphoria about the economy in the share markets; significant rise in share prices worldwide; its sustainability, however, is questionable • Positive outlook for the economy – stabilisation in the global economy, but coupled with expectations of rising inflation • Measures take effect: since Q2 2009 increasing stabilisation in the banking system and rising trust among the players in the capital markets – spreads narrowed, uncovered refinancing tools can be placed again

More Related