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Using Esco in skills demand and skills mismatch research

This project aims to analyze skills demand and mismatches in Poland by examining online job offers, labor supply, and educational mismatches. By utilizing a new measurement method, the research will assess the institutional background of educational mismatches, propose policy recommendations, and suggest a continuous monitoring approach. The importance of vacancies in understanding labor market trends will be highlighted, focusing on skills, qualifications, and competences. Existing research and methods will be explored to provide a comprehensive analysis for future policy considerations.

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Using Esco in skills demand and skills mismatch research

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  1. Using Escoin skillsdemandand skillsmismatchresearch Robert Pater

  2. HorizontalEducationalMismatch:a newmethod of measurement with application to Poland • Motivation and goals of the project • Measurementframework and the role of ESCO • Online joboffers and textanalysis • Results

  3. Project objectives • Analysefirms’ demand for: occupations, qualifications,and skills/competence, that occur in vacancies by analysis of online job offers, their detailed structure and changes in time • Analyse labour supply according to their occupation, qualifications, andskills/competencesand other characteristics • Investigate horizontal educational mismatch between potential job seekers and employers offering work

  4. Project objectives • Assessthe institutional background of the educational mismatch and make policy recommendations • Proposea method of continuous monitoring of skillsdemand and educational mismatch; formulatepolicy recommendations for labour market and educationinstitutions as to the measurement of the laboursupplytraits (e.g. skills)

  5. Hypotheses • Online job offers can provide detailed structural information about firms’ demand for new workers • Qualificationsand competences help better measure horizontal educational mismatch than occupations and skills • Structuralunemployment in Poland is to the highest extent connected to the field of education and competence mismatch • Choiceof educational pathway in Poland is not well motivated, and leads to educational mismatch

  6. Importance of vacancies Part of the demand for labour, which includes non-employed workersThe measure of unmetdemand A labour market leadingindicatorVariable in search and matching models / mismatchesindices Difficulties in employing / measure of structural unemploymentMeasure of the specific structure of demand for labour: across skills / competences, qualifications, occupations

  7. motivation • Thereare not manyresearch on the vacancy market, and theirresultsheavilydepend on the definition of a vacancy • Representativesurveys on the vacancy market lack details, such as informationaboutskills • Althoughonline job offers can be asupportfor surveys as a data source on vacancy market, the literature lacks methods and analyses of the contents of job offers • Growingneed for disagregateanalysis on the labour market, likeskills, especiallyskillsdemand

  8. Relatedresearch • Chevalier (2011) shows that the gap in mean salaries between studied fields is smaller than within them • Boudarbat and Chernoff (2012) show that good university grades (as a proxy of work-related competences) decrease horizontal mismatch • Sgobbi and Suleman (2013) argue that general measures of mismatch cannot fully capture the multi-dimensional and job specific nature of skill mismatch • Hershbein and Kahn (2017) suggestlooking at the skill requirements in job offersto document the evolution in skill requirements for this occupation over time

  9. Methods of previousresearch • Horizontaleducationalmismatch isusuallycomputed using subjective measures • Hard to obtaincontinuous information on the demand, and the supply of workers’ skills or, more generally, competences and qualifications • Previous online joboffersanalysesusedsubjectiveclassifications, e.g. most frequentkeywords (Deming and Kahn 2017), job title (Marinescu and Wolthoff 2016) • On a very detailed scale (individual skillsorcompetences) firms’ demand and mismatch hasbeenmeasured only from microeconomic perspective (Winterton et al. 2006, Modestino et al. 2016)

  10. GenericSkillsclassifications • General groupings: KSAO, Spencer and Spencer (1993), Winterton et al. (2006), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (2002) • PIAAC and PISA: not for demand • ISCO-08: proxy of skillslevels • O*Net: six categories, coveringbetween one and 11 skills (35 skills) https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/browse/Skills/ • Human Capital Study: 11 categories … but whichsocialskillsareimporant?

  11. Ourframework • ISCO-08 classification of occupations;testingrepresentativeness • International Standard Classification of Education. Fields of Education and Training ISCED-F 2013, which classifies education horizontallycomparinglabour market and education • Adetailed ESCO European Commission typology of skills/competencesdictionary of skills, detaileddescriptiondemand and supply • Linkingclassificationsdescribe a joboffer from alleducationaldimensions

  12. Gatheringjoboffers • At first, at the end of a month, thanks to a computer script • Now, joboffertitles „continuously”, jobofferstexts as many as possible • Joboffers are downloaded and saved on a server in HTML format • The data were converted into plain text (parsing) • We eliminatevery „similar” joboffersbetweenportals

  13. Analysingjoboffers • Lemmatization of the offer text to the basic form using Morfologik-stemming-1.9.0 • Dictionaries for search (skills/competences, qualifications, occupations) and their groups with synonyms and exceptions, also lemmatized; important proper selection of classification – in some cases, few alternatives • Polish and English dictionary

  14. Job offerexample

  15. Representativeness

  16. Fastest developing branches • Construction (36) • Transportationand logistics (6-10) • Production (4-5, 18-20, 25 and 28-33) • Printing, photographyand advertising (13) • Engineering (34 and 38) • Artistic and audio-visual (2 and 3) • Protection and security of persons and property and installation (23 and 35) • Economyand administration(11)

  17. transversal skillsper job offer

  18. Most demandedtransversalskills

  19. Correlationbetweenskilltrends

  20. Escorole • Detailedclassification (as detailed as companiesneed) • Linkingalldimensions of education (comparinglabour market and educationparticipants) • Officialclassification (can be merged with other data sources) • Can be usedunconditionally to alltypes of jobs • Can, will, and shouldchange! We can monitor the development of occupations, theirqualificationalrequirements and skillstheyuse

  21. Application • Forecasting the business cycle • Measuringstructuralchange • OECD SkillsStrategy • NationalQualificationsStrategy • Supportinglabour market institutions • Media: Barometr Ofert Pracy

  22. Thankyou Presenter: Robert Pater Institution: Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania w Rzeszowie Instytut Badań Edukacyjnych w Warszawie e-mail: rpater@wsiz.rzeszow.pl r.pater@ibe.edu.pl

  23. REFERENces • Boudarbat, B., & Chernoff, V. (2012). Education–job match among recent Canadian university graduates. Applied Economics Letters ,19(18), 1923–1926, doi:10.1080/13504851.2012.676730. • Chevalier, A. (2011). Subject Choice and Earnings of UK Graduates. Economics of Education Review, 30(6), 1187–1201. • Deming, D., & Kahn, L. (2017). Skill requirements across firms and labor markets: evidence from job postings for professionals. NBER Working Paper 23328. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23328. Accessed 20 June 2018. • Hershbein, B., & Kahn, L. (2017). Do recessions accelerate routine-biased technological change? Evidence from vacancy posting. Employment Research, 24(4), 1-4. • Marinescu, I., & Wolthoff, R. (2016). Opening the Black Box of the Matching Function: the Power of Words. NBER Working Paper 22508. http://www.nber.org/papers/w22508.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2018. • Modestino, A., Shoag, D., & Ballance, J. (2016). Downskilling: Changes in Employer Skill Requirements Over the Business Cycle. Labour Economics, 41, 333–347. • Sgobbi, F., Suleman, F. (2013). A Methodological Contribution to Measuring Skill (Mis)Match. The Manchester School, 81(3), 420–39. • Spencer, L. M., Spencer, S. M. (1993). Competence at Work. Models for Superior Performance. New York: John Wiley & Sons. • United Nations Industrial Development Organization (2002). Competencies. Part 1.Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/fileadmin/media/documents/pdf/Employment/UNIDO-CompetencyModel-Part1.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2018. • Winterton, J., Delamare Le Deist, F., & Stringfellow, E. (2006). Typology of knowledge, skills and competences: clarification of the concept and prototype. Cedefop Reference Series 64. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/3048. Accessed 20 June 2018.

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