1. October 26th 2009, KIHASA, Seoul Family policies in an ageing society. FranceSeminar on Policies Responding to Low FertilitySharing Korean and European Experiences Julien Damon Associate Professor, Sciences-Po (Paris) www.julien-damon.com

2. Population (thousands)Constant-fertility variant- 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

3. Total fertility (children per woman)Medium variant - 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

4. Population aged 65+ (%) Medium variant - 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

5. The many objectives of the French familiy policy Support to fertility- Protect the family (preserve the traditional model)- Protect the children (support for their education)- Struggle against inequality and poverty- Support to the work-family balance- Promote gender equality

6. Public spending on family benefits in cash, services and tax measures, in per cent of GDP, 2005 Source : OECD

7. French social policies The Post-War Management Scheme Extras PROVISION FOR THE FUTURE Social Security INSURANCE Social Assistance ASSISTANCE • Optional and compulsory protection • Mutual associations, insurance companies, contingency fund organizations • 1945 goal:progressive reduction of the need for contingency mechanisms • Risk coverage for “social assistance” beneficiaries • Principally financed through contributions • Mainly horizontal redistribution • Divided into different programs • 1945 goal:universality • The various social insurance programs provide four-fifths of the benefits • Needs-based risk coverage • Principally financed through taxation • Mainly vertical redistribution • 1945 goal:assistance expected to become residual

8. Bird's-eye View (1) • French social policies have met many of the goals they were designed to achieve... • providing coverage for the whole population • achieving one of the highest fertility rates in the Western world • significantly improving the overall health of the population • fulfilling a role as an effective, Keynesian-inspired, economic stabilizer • reducing poverty, particularly among seniors

9. Bird's-eye View (2) • ... they have, however, been hindered by substantial difficulties arising from economic and social change • persistently high unemployment, resulting in lost revenue and increased social expenditures • structural deficits that create a burden for future generations • aging population • poor, insufficient, or incomplete coverage of new risks (dependency in old age, exclusion, immigrant integration, etc.) • changes to the family structure that challenge the “male breadwinner” concept

10. The “Structure” of Social Risk Management By broad risk area, 2007 Old age Health Family Employment Housing Poverty • Four “social risks”... • Occupational injuries • Old age • Illness • Family • ... that grew to eleven! • Maternity • Unemployment • Work transitions • Survivors • Disability • Housing • Poverty

11. But what does it mean? • Four “social risks”... • Occupational injuries • Old age • Illness • Family • ... that grew to eleven! • Maternity • Unemployment • Work transitions • Survivors • Disability • Housing • Poverty These are the Social Security “branches” established in 1945 Accounting terms used to describe social assistance benefits The French debate concerns the creation of a “fifth risk”...  A highly ambiguous situation

12. How will “Retirement” and “Family” Risks evolve? Dependency or early childhood? Financing requirements of old age insurance plans (billions of Euros) Number of day care spaces per 100 children under 3 years of age

13. Families are not the same as they used to be (1) Changes to the number of births and the proportion of extramarital births in France Extra-marital Births Source:INED

14. Families are not the same as they used to be (2) The “work/family balance” revolution Cross-country relation between female employment rates and total fertility rates Source:OECD

15. Work and life balance : insatisfation Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008

16. Work and life balance : the solution ? Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008

17. OECD countries by family policy

18. Pre-primary education

19. Childcare …

20. Childcare in the EU. French are among the least satisfied… Source : Eurobaromètre, 2005

21. Parental leaveAny relationship with fertily? Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

22. A big issue: how many children do women desire? Source : Eurobaromètre, 2006

23. A very big issue: women in modern lifeFemale Managers Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide work force of female managers that work there. Source : www.worldmapper.org

24. Another important relationship: share of births outside marriage and fertility rate, 1970, 2005 Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

25. The last (French?) big issue: migrationAfter the brain drain, the care drain?

26. The more you spend, the more you have children? NOThe easier it is to work and to divorce, the more you have children? PROBABLYA new european idea:social investmentThank you for your attention