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Sensitivity of European Local Response to NAO Phases

Study on the impact of extreme NAO phases on Europe, focusing on model representation and ocean flux effect. Initial findings suggest accurate representation of NAO-type patterns. Further analysis recommended.

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Sensitivity of European Local Response to NAO Phases

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  1. Group 5 • Bojariu, Roxana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania • Srnec, Lidija Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia • Velea, Liliana National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bucharest, Romania

  2. Sensitivity of the local response over Europe to extreme NAO phases

  3. Motivation • NAO • It’s a dominant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter. • It’s a source of predictability for the European regions. • It has socio-economic impacts (e.g. power and water management, marine ecosystem resources, agriculture)

  4. Questions: • Does the model represent the NAO signal? • What is the effect of ocean flux parameterization scheme on the simulated NAO signal?

  5. Experiment design • Domain: 80x70x18 46N,8E • Period of simulations: January 1995 (CRU NAO index=+2.7) January 1996 (CRU NAO index=-3.71) • Data: ECMWF NCEP2 CRU • Ocean flux scheme: Zeng BATS

  6. PRECIPITATION 1995CRU ECMWF NCEP2

  7. TEMPERATURE Jan 1995CRU ECMWF NCEP2

  8. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996CRU ECMWF NCEP2

  9. TEMPERATURE JAN 1996CRU ECMWF NCEP2

  10. DIFFERENCE PRECIPITATION (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2

  11. DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE (COMPOSITES) 95-96(NCEP2)CRU NCEP2

  12. PRECIPITATION Jan 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

  13. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

  14. PRECIPITATION JAN 1996 (NCEP2) CRU Zeng BATS

  15. TEMPERATURE JAN 1995(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

  16. TEMPERATURE JAN 1996(ECMWF) CRU Zeng BATS

  17. Preliminary conclusions • Local features of the NAO-type patterns are well represented. • Relevant local responses due to topography are identified. • Zeng ocean flux parameterization scheme seems to be more realistic in precipitation field, but the differences are not pronounced.

  18. Follow up • Extended simulation interval • More analysis methods

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