1 / 60

CIVITAS PLUS Evaluation of mobility and social inclusion Dr Laurie Pickup

CIVITAS PLUS Evaluation of mobility and social inclusion Dr Laurie Pickup Regional Director for Europe WYG Environment, Planning and transport Venue : Coimbra, Portugal Date: 22nd/23° March 2012. The scope of this session.

suchin
Télécharger la présentation

CIVITAS PLUS Evaluation of mobility and social inclusion Dr Laurie Pickup

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. CIVITAS PLUS Evaluation of mobility and social inclusion Dr Laurie Pickup Regional Director for Europe WYG Environment, Planning and transport Venue : Coimbra, Portugal Date: 22nd/23° March 2012

  2. The scope of this session • The nature of mobility and social disadvantage – defining the scope of our evaluation? • Setting out your evaluation - the baseline expectations, objectives, target groups, success criteria • Understanding the mobility behaviour of different social groups and attitudes – what are the key variables to evaluate? • Measuring and analysing mobility and inclusion situations and response to change - Qualitative assessment - Quantitative surveys • Conclusions Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  3. Part 1 • The nature of mobility and social disadvantage – defining the scope of our evaluation? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  4. Mobility is Freedom One of the strongest freedoms we possess Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  5. Mobility is not just a transport phenomenon • Spatial/temporal mobility - horizontal • Social mobility - vertical • (Virtual mobility) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  6. Barriers to mobility 1/2 • Ability - Physical access to transport facilities and services in terms of vehicle and system design, waiting and interchange facilities and information services; • Opportunity - Spatial and temporal distribution of transport services and their connectivity with key activities; • Affordability - cost of transport services and its relation to incomes; Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  7. Barriers to mobility 2/2 • Cognitive and psychological factors - such as ability of users to understand and navigate the system, perceptions of personal safety and fear of crime; • Cultural and social factors - regarding acceptability of the services which are provided, including safety, comfort but also attitudes and social norms. Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  8. Social Exclusion: What are we actually measuring? • The concept of ‘social exclusion’ is contested, and has multiple meanings. These meanings are being continually redefined over time and have different policy implications. • (World Health Organisation review 2008) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  9. Social exclusion is a myth? • ‘’Exclusion” is not a concept rooted in the social sciences, but an empty box given by the French state to the social sciences in the late 1980s as a subject to study… The empty box has since been filled with a huge number of pages, treatises and pictures, varying degrees academic, popular, original and valuable’. (Murard, 2002) • ‘The excluded made up one tenth of the French population: the mentally and the physically handicapped, suicidal people, aged invalids, abused children, drug addicts, delinquents, single parents, multi-problem households, marginal, asocial persons, and other social misfits’ (Lenoir) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  10. Definition of social exclusion • ‘A shorthand for what can happen when people or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime environments, bad health and family breakdown’(UK, Social Exclusion Unit, 1997) • So what are we evaluating? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  11. Parameters of mobility disadvantage • Frailty • Dependency (young and very old) • Disability (physical, sensory, learning capacity) • Low income • Gender role • Ethnicity • In most cases of exclusion, these aspects arise in combination Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  12. Table of mobility disadvantage Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  13. Part 2 • Setting out your evaluation - the baseline expectations, objectives, target groups, success criteria Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  14. What is the focus of your evaluation? • A specific initiative dedicated to addressing mobility and exclusion/inclusion issues (e.g. Mobility and poverty in Liverpool) • An initiative primarily with a sustainable mobility focus – but which may have social impacts (e.g Mobility policy in Perugia) • An initiative where the social dimension of the issue is to be evaluated, but not specifically for its inclusion components (Most CIVITAS CITIES) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  15. LIVERPOOL – October 1986 • Study of impact of bus privatisation on the poor • Bus fare increase of 300% on privatisation • The start of ‘Community links’ • Followed by ‘Travel safe’ Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012 Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  16. Birmingham - 2012 Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  17. Evaluation life-cycle • What stage of the process are you addressing? • Identification of needs and requirements of marginalised groups • Identification of behavioural responses to a change in provision for marginalised groups • Both Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  18. An example evaluation life cycle • Systematically assess the accessibility needs; • Generate accessibility strategies that are fully inclusive to all social groups, based on both state of the art experience and local needs; • Generate individual measurement options that integrate to meet the strategy objectives; • Conduct pre-implementation assessment of options on the benefits to different social groups, including economic assessment; • Generate a chosen strategy; • Implementation guidelines; • Scheme monitoring and quality evaluation (social and economic evaluation, but also mobility efficiency and sustainability criteria); • Feedback and strategy revision, input to standards and protocols; and • Reporting and intelligence sharing. Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  19. Defining your target group(s) • Mobility exclusion among: • - specific age groups or gender e.g. Elderly/frail • - income groups e.g poverty definitions • - specific personal mobility disadvantaged groups e.g sensory impaired people • - poor access to specific activities (e.g employment) • - overall mobility in specific types of regions (city centres, peripheral suburbs, rural areas) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  20. Taking a cross sector approach • Social exclusion is a cross-sector issue about restricted life-style • The evaluation has to include this perspective • In 1998, the Government’s Social Exclusion Unit found that mobility services in the UK covered the decisions of 11 ministries. • Assess the link between mobility policy and social policy (including employment etc.) • Work with other sectors in the evaluation • The best solution may not be a transport one Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  21. What indicators will you measure? • Hard indicators to measure needs and/or impacts (quantitative) • Soft indicators to measure needs and/or impacts (qualitative) • Only mobility indicators? • Indicators of social inclusion? • What level of aggregation are you addressing? • What indicators will define success? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  22. Indicators (1) • Mobility indicators • Use the wide interpretation of accessibility • Accessibility models of varying complexity • Reviews of accessibility indicators • - increased number of activity opportunities (e.g. Jobs) • - increased number of public transport services (routes, frequency) • - increased patronage of public transport services by the target group • - increased satisfaction scores with access to different facilities Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  23. Inclusion indicators National Action Plans 11 primary indicators, 3 secondary indicators and 11 context indicators; these are known as the streamlined indicators Examples • Primary - Early school leavers not in education or training, total • Secondary - Persons with low educational attainment Aged 25-64 • Context - Self-reported limitations in daily activities by income quintiles (Eurostat) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  24. A simple approach to planning your evaluation • 4 dimensions: • Target group(s) – e.g. Young unemployed • Type of measure – e.g. • -Policy: Achieving equal access to employment • - Strategy: Improve access to job interviews • - Method: Ticket subsidy • Type of disadvantage - e.g. Low income, restricted residential mobility • Type of mobility – e.g. public transport modes Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  25. Part 3 • Understanding mobility behaviour and attitudes as part of lifestyle – what are the key variables? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  26. “To change travel behaviour, you first have to fully understand what motivates it” Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  27. Transport Planning Follow-the-leader model / optimal velocity model : Newell ; headway ; relaxation time, ; Optimal velocity function Intelligent driver model : Treiber et al. (PRE 2000) relative velocity Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  28. Time and Cost • Cost to driver made up of time, distance and other costs (such as tolls) • Cost = (A x t) + (60 x B x d) + (C x p) where • A = time coefficients • t = travel time in minutes • B = distance coefficient in minutes per mile • d = link length in miles • C = toll coefficient in minutes per monetary cost • p = price of the toll in monetary cost units Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  29. Disaggregated Models • Could you put a value on a person’s time? • Are travel decisions simply a matter of trading time and cost? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  30. Disadvantaged Groups • growing mobility problems of the poor, of women in traditional households, of the disabled, of children and of the old and frail • Policies began to greatly emphasize the need to encourage public transport use • car pooling schemes emerged Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  31. Stated Preferences- Imposed choices? Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  32. Time-geographic/activity approaches • the chances to travel are dictated by the periods of time and the spatial opportunities available • Emphasis on ‘accessibility’ rather than ‘mobility’ • policies should be targeted at travel reduction and access improvement Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  33. Life-cycle and habit • travel patterns showed similarities within household types at different life-cycle stages • ‘Life shocks’ experience • Short term travel behaviour is dominated by habit • the actual numbers of trips have not changed greatly over the years • the distances people travel changed Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  34. Realistic Choices • one third of households’ trips could not be changed for various reasons • ‘realistic choice theory’ • ‘individualised marketing’ • ‘Personalised Travel Planning’ Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  35. Evaluating travel behaviour • people make travel decisions based on time and cost • travel behaviour is influenced by habitual behaviour • providing information and support to produce the changes in behaviour • expenditure on travel remains stable except in lower income households • More focus on mobility mind-sets Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  36. Part4 • Measuring impacts and understanding why they occurred: impact and process evaluation Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  37. Measurement methods • Qualitative research • Quantitative research • - Non-statistical surveys • - Statistical surveys of samples to predict population parameters • - Sample selection (random/non-random) • - Survey type • - Statistical error and sample disaggregation • Analysis • - Single variable, bi-variate, multi-variate Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  38. Qualitative evaluation methods (1) • To understand the types of issues arising and the nature of processes and change • Good for social exclusion/inclusion evaluation • Small samples, semi-structured using topic guides, recording, skilled moderator • Focus groups • One to one interviews • Use of mentoring intermediaries for ‘hard to reach groups’ Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  39. Qualitative research (2) • Qualitative analysis • Record and transcribe the interviews word for word (ensure good microphone positioning) • Unless intermediaries are necessary, try to interview yourself • Analyse ranges and avoid numbers. • Quote ranges of opinions and arguments • Use the results for design of quantitative survey Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  40. Survey objectives (1) • Identify features of (and changes to) behaviour and attitudes - in the ‘population’ - in a statistical sense – through measuring the ‘variables’ we define. • Qualitative research and quantitative surveys • Identify through variable measurement, the factors that shape attitudes – how this relates to behaviour patterns • Importance – satisfaction – expectations – prejudice • - measurement of the ‘scale’ of the variable • - measurement of the relative imoportance or ‘ranking’ between variables Southampton (UK), 20/03/2009 Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  41. Survey approaches Randomly sample ‘a defined population’ Survey the sample in the ‘change’ area and in potential ‘transfer’ sites to infer results Use of ‘experimental and control samples’ Single random sample surveys at a point in time (retrospective – e.g short term after survey) Repeat surveys of random samples from the same population (Before and after, periodic monitoring) Repeat interviews with the same sample subjects (Panels) Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  42. Statistical error – designing your sample size Percentile error of sample percentages Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  43. Ex-post car Driver Survey Sample 2000

  44. Survey methods • Household surveys • Doorstep surveys • In-street/at stop/roadside/on vehicle surveys • Hall tests • Postal surveys • Telephone surveys • Internet surveys Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  45. Household surveys (1) Pre-arranged interviews (initial screening) All household members? (Use of incentives) Interviewer administered – 30 to 40 minutes Fully structured questionnaire? (show cards) Possible use of travel/activity diaries Piloting essential Interviewer training and monitoring important Random sampling – assess non-response bias Expensive Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  46. Household surveys (2) Achieve a full picture of household mobility A picture of trip generation and distribution by mode/ time of day/ day of week etc. The attitudes of household members to their mobility issues The primary variables of the mode choices of household members Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  47. Doorstep surveys Shorter interviews – maximum 10 minutes Screening for target group Only one person (spokesperson) from the household Diaries are sometimes left for collection/posting Careful piloting and interviewer training Structured questionnaires (show cards) Random address/walk /random person (repeat visits – sampling with/without replacement) Assess pattern of non-response Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  48. In-street/at stop/roadside/in vehicle surveys Random sampling at chosen/random sampling points/ passing vehicles/ on PT vehicles (specify the population to be sampled) Possible screening questions for target groups Interview individuals/maximum 4/5 minutes 10 key questions – design well to avoid uncompleted forms Careful piloting and interviewer training Structured questionnaires (show cards) Common use of automatic data recorders Assess pattern of non-response Less cost Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  49. Hall tests Random sampling at chosen sampling points (specify the population to be sampled) Usual in-street screening questions for certain target groups Respondents invited into a ‘hall’ to complete a more detailed questionnaire. Halls provide the opportunity to show plans, demonstrations, stated preference exercises etc. Careful piloting and interviewer training Structured questionnaires (show cards) Possible use of automatic data recorders or computers Assess pattern of refusals to attend the hall test Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

  50. Telephone surveys Specialist Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing sysems (CATI) Structured questionnaire (piloted) Screening questions for certain target groups? Telephone panel surveys Low respondent tolerance with telephone interviewing Only useful for short interviews/well defined issue Possible bias in sampling Used as an initial screening stage for household interviews Used for ‘follow-up’ interviews Less cost Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

More Related