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Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders

Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders. Presentation to the Sentencing Guidelines Commission October 12, 2007. Elizabeth K. Drake Washington State Institute for Public Policy (360) 586-2767 ekdrake@wsipp.wa.gov www.wsipp.wa.gov. History of Development.

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Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders

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  1. Risk and Needs Assessments for Adult Felony Offenders Presentation to the Sentencing Guidelines Commission October 12, 2007 Elizabeth K. Drake Washington State Institute for Public Policy (360) 586-2767 ekdrake@wsipp.wa.gov www.wsipp.wa.gov

  2. History of Development • The Institute was directed to study the impact of OAA on recidivism. • 2003 report on validity of DOC’s risk instrument (LSI-R) found it predicted moderately well. • The Institute found that the predictive accuracy of the LSI-R could be strengthened. • DOC asked the Institute to develop a new risk instrument and a needs assessment.

  3. Advantages Over the LSI-R • Primary Advantages: • Increased predictive accuracy. • Prediction of three types of high risk offenders: drug, property, and violent. • Decreased costs (time and fees). • Additional Benefits: • Objective demographics and criminal history. • Recording of criminal history, computerized scoring: • Reduces counting errors - verifiable. • Includes out-of-state, juvenile, felony, and misdemeanor convictions.

  4. Two Assessments Developed 1. Actuarially-based “static” risk for reoffense: • Offenders are grouped into risk levels where each group has a different recidivism rate. 2. “Needs” assessment: • Captures risk and protective factors. • Supplements the static risk level for programming decisions.

  5. 3-Year Recidivism Rates for Each Risk Level Validation SampleN=51,648 80% Misdemeanor and Felony Felony 70% Felony Drug 60% Felony Property Violent Felony 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low (32%) Moderate (24%) High Drug (9%) High Property (19%) High Violent (16%)

  6. Percentage Distribution of Risk Level for Each Offense Group Sentenced to Prison: 2000 to 2005 OffenseLowModerateHighHighHighTotalDrugPropertyViolent Total 22% 11% 12% 27% 30% 100% Drug 60% 7% 26% 4% 4% 100% Property 8% 10% 11% 56% 15% 100% Assault 12% 11% 8% 16% 54% 100% Robbery/Kidnap 10% 16% 6% 22% 45% 100% Sex 45% 14% 5% 12% 24% 100% Homicide 57% 13% 5% 8% 18% 100%

  7. How Well Does the Adult Static Assessment Work for Sub-populations? Works just as well for: • Females • Minorities • Different Types of Offenders (drug, property, sex, and violent) • Sex offenders; predicts violent recidivism but not sexual re-offending See: R. Barnoski & E. Drake. (2007). Washington’s Offender Accountability Act: Department of Corrections’ Static Risk Assessment. Olympia: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.

  8. Adult Felony Offender “Needs” Assessment for Programming Decisions • “Needs” are factors that may influence whether the offender recidivates. • Risk (negative) and protective (positive) • Dynamic and static. • Requires a motivational interview. • Software makes task easier.

  9. Ten Domains of Needs Assessment • Education • Community Employment • Friends • Residence • Family • Alcohol / Drug Use • Mental Health • Aggression • Attitudes / Behaviors • Coping Skills

  10. What’s next… The Institute could evaluate how well the static risk and needs assessments are working for DOC.

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