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Understanding Predator-Prey Dynamics in Small Rodents: An ALMaSS Model Approach

Investigating population cycles in small rodents and the impact of predator composition and environmental factors using the ALMaSS model. Explore theoretical population ecology scenarios and preliminary results to shed light on predator-prey interactions.

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Understanding Predator-Prey Dynamics in Small Rodents: An ALMaSS Model Approach

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  1. Predator-Prey Interactions in an Individual Based Model Ditte Katrine Hendrichsen NERI / University of Copenhagen, Denmark

  2. Population Cycles in Small Rodents • Ecological background • The aim of this project • Methods - ALMaSS • Preliminary results

  3. Background • Population cycles are known in a number of species • The population cycles of small rodents in Fenno-Scandia show a characteristic north-south gradient • Several theories proposed to explain the cycles • One these is the Specialist-Generalist Predation Hypothesis or the Predation Theory

  4. The Predation Theory • The composition of predator species • Primarily specialists in north • Stoat (Mustela erminea) and Weasel (M. nivalis) • Greater diversity of predators towards south including more generalist species • Tawny Owl (Strix aluco)

  5. The Predation Theory • The composition of predator species • The presence of snow cover • Landscape heterogeneity

  6. What Do I Want to Know? • Can we generate cycles just by adding and changing predators? • What are the effects in the prey dynamics when different scenarios are run? • simulations with and without predators and different ratios of generalists and specialist predators • simulations with different spatial characteristics

  7. Methods • Model: ALMaSS • Landscape model • Animal model • Model species: Field vole (Microtus agrestris)

  8. The Predator Elements in ALMaSS • Death and reproduction rates • Home range size, the size of the search area within the home range • Efficiency • How long they stay in a particular area and how far they move

  9. Preliminary Results I

  10. Preliminary Results II

  11. Preliminary Results III

  12. Preliminary Results IV

  13. ALMaSS in Theoretical Population Ecology • Modelling may allow us to test scenarios which does not occur in nature • Effects of weather • Landscape structure and management • Fauna composition

  14. ALMaSS in Theoretical Population Ecology • Modelling may allow us to test scenarios which do not occur in nature • ...and to run scenarios over several years, testing the long term influence of different parameters

  15. Acknowledgements • Chris Topping Department of Landscape Ecology, National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark • Mads Forchhammer Department of Population Ecology, Institute of Zoology, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

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