Application of State and Federal Law in 2011

1. K-12 Redistricting Paul Mitchell, Redistricting Partners Application of State and Federal Law in 2011

2. What is Redistricting definitions • Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature. • K-12 districts with election areas must also do redistricting.

3. What is Redistricting definitions • Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature. • K-12 districts without election areas must review their vulnerability under the California Voting Rights Act.

4. What is Redistricting definitions • VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5. • CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.

5. What is Redistricting the Gerrymander The term Gerrymander came from a cartoon depicting a rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.

6. What is Redistricting the Gerrymander There are still legislative lines that look a lot like the original Gerrymander! Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22

7. What is Redistricting the Gerrymander The current “worst of the worst” is the new Henry Waxman Congressional Seat. Not contiguous at high tide?

8. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?

9. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?

10. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?

11. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care? In K-12 this is unlikely to be about Partisanship as much as rural v. urban; ethnicities or other factors where winners and losers are found.

12. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

13. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

14. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts Pop. Deviation % Dev. 1 118,063 32,498 +38% 2 86,695 1,130 +1% 3 67,089 (18,476) -22% 4 68,998 (16,567) -19% 5 81,515 (4,050) -5% Goal Population 85,565

15. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts Pop. Deviation % Dev. 1 57,036 -620 -1.1% 2 57,185 -471 -0.8% 3 55,143 -2,513 -4.4% 4 58,961 1,305 2.3% 5 58,291 635 1.1% 6 57,382 -274 -0.5% 7 59,598 1,942 3.4% Goal Population 57,656

16. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

17. Current Districts Equal Size Districts

18. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

19. Communities of Interest Bringing like people together for representation • What is a community of interest includes ethnic and language minorities and other groups. • Communities covered by the VRA • Latinos • Asians • African Americans

20. African American COI

21. Asian COI

22. Latino COI

23. Armenian COI

24. VRA Requirements Progressive federal and local laws protect minorities Sample District Asian African American Latino 1 13% 16% 21% 2 10% 7% 19% 3 9% 18% 53% 4 30% 5% 22% 5 45% 2% 15% 6 49% 1% 37% 7 58% 1% 12%

25. VRA Requirements Progressive federal and local laws protect minorities Sample District Asian African American Latino 1 13% 16% 21% 2 10% 7% 19% 3 9% 18% 53% 4 30% 5% 22% 5 45% 2% 15% 6 49% 1% 37% 7 58% 1% 12%

26. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

27. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts

28. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts • There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts. • Relatively equal size - people, not citizens • Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump • Maintain “communities of interest” • Follow city/county/local government lines • Keep districts compact – appearance/function • Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

29. Traditional Redistricting Principles Should be followed by K-12 Districts Compact Not Compact

30. What is the CVRA definition • The California Voting Rights Act was signed in 2002 and ONLY impacts boards with at-large elections. These boards may need to transition to “by-area” elections if: • The district has Racially Polarized Voting, and, • The sub-group(s) in question can have better outcomes through the creation of districts. • Having a diverse board can help with the narrative, but does not provide protection from a violation of CVRA.

31. What is a CVRA Analysis definition • CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the requirements for districts under the California Voting Rights Act. This analysis includes: • Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of the district. • Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the existence of and severity of RPV • Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)

32. What is CVRA Analysis definition • CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the requirements for districts under the California Voting Rights Act. This analysis includes: • Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of the district. • Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the existence of and severity of RPV. • Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)

33. CVRA Review of District Ethnic, electoral, historic • A review of past election results and a review of the overall ethnic makeup could point to several things that make the district a target for CVRA lawsuit: • Rate of turnover on the board – could point to election patterns where other groups do not have an opportunity to get elected. • African American, Latino or Asian populations that are large and densely populated in specific regions. • The district can create majority-minority or “influence” districts.

34. What is CVRA Analysis definition • CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the requirements for districts under the California Voting Rights Act. This analysis includes: • Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of the district. • Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the existence of and severity of RPV. • Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)

35. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed • Review of election results for candidates and ballot measures. Federal case law has validated two key methods that can be used in addition to others: • HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90% of one race. • Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more Latino a precinct is. • Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated these methods.

36. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed • Review of election results for candidates and ballot measures. Federal case law has validated two key methods: • HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90% of one race. • Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more Latino a precinct is. • Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated these methods.

37. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed HPA Analysis looks at Precincts or census blocks that are homogeneous – for this purpose we can consider anything 90% of one race to be all one race. For one client we found the following:

38. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed HPA Analysis looks at Precincts or census blocks that are homogeneous – for this purpose we can consider anything 90% of one race to be all one race. And that kind of data allows us to determine:

39. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed • Review of election results for candidates and ballot measures. Federal case law has validated two key methods: • HPA – Extreme Case Analysis. Looks at precincts that are on average 90% of one race. • Regression Analysis. Answers questions of how the votes change throughout a model, such as how the votes for Prop 187 drop the more Latino a precinct is. • Today’s data can get much more precise than the 1986 case that validated these methods.

40. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed A Simple regression analysis looks at how votes change as ethnic composition of a precinct changes. Multi-Variable regression analysis can look at how race impacts vs. other factors. The results are formulas that can be confusing and scatterplot graphs that can be relatively intuitive.

41. Racially Polarized Voting How it is analyzed • A Simple regression analysis looks at how votes change as ethnic composition of a precinct changes. Multi-Variable regression analysis can look at how race impacts vs. other factors. • y = 0.4946x + 0.2944 • y = 0.4946(1) + 0.2944 = 0.78978.9% of Latinos voted for Latino • y = 0.4946(0) + 0.2944 = 0.2944 29.4% of Whites (Non-Latinos) voted Latino

43. What is CVRA Analysis definition • CVRA Analysis is the process of determining the requirements for districts under the California Voting Rights Act. This analysis includes: • Review of past elections, board composition, overall ethnic makeup of the district. • Analysis of key ballot measure and candidate races to determine the existence of and severity of RPV. • Drawing of potential district lines to see if districts can be created that are Majority-Minority (Federal VRA) or Influence (State CVRA)

44. What is CVRA Analysis Majority-minority and Influence Districts