Critical Thinking for Problem Solving and Decision Making from HeadScratchers LLC Mike Kallet headscratchers mike.k

1. Critical Thinkingfor Problem Solving and Decision Makingfrom HeadScratchers LLCMike Kalletwww.headscratchers.commike.kallet@headscratchers.com720-493-8567

2. Critical ThinkingYour Takeaways from today What critical thinking is and why it�s important. Several critical thinking techniques you can use when solving problems and making decisions. How to lead others to think critically. A�s to Q�s � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 2

3. Critical ThinkingWhat is it? Taking yourself (your brain) out of �Automatic� mode, and putting it into �Manual� mode Purposeful thought with the objective of creating a result. An impartial way of Analyzing and Evaluating data, statements, and observations. A Process of understanding the relationships between information, a selection of possible decisions, and their corresponding outcomes. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 3

4. Your Automatic Thinking MindIt can be very, very helpful Read the following paragraph: You mghit tnihk i�ts aaminzg taht you can raed tihs with vrialuty no diluftficuy eevn tuohg the lttres are mxeid up. It trnus out taht all you need is the fsrit and lsat leetrts in the crocert pcale. Tihs is an eaxplme of yuor barin rnuning in aoumtatic mdoe. But can it sometimes be too helpful? Did you pick up that �though� was misspelled and didn�t follow the rule? � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 4

5. Your Automatic Thinking MindCan it sometimes help too much? Count every � F � in the following text FINISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITHTHE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS� How many did you count? � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 5

6. Your Automatic Thinking MindIt makes things up � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 6

7. Critical Thinking A conscious decision and process to shift your thinking from �Automatic� to �Manual� We call it �HeadScratching� � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 7

8. Critical ThinkingHow it makes a difference � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 8

9. Critical ThinkingThis results in � Clarity of problem or situation Faster and Accurate conclusions and Quality decisions A richer Variety of choices, explanations and solutions. Opportunity recognition, Mistake avoidance Reduced errors and redo's Thought out strategies, Early elimination of dead-ends � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 9

10. �No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking�Voltaire (1694 - 1778) � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 10

11. HeadScratchingA Framework for Critical Thinking � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 11

12. HeadScratchingAutomatic Thinking vs. Critical Thinking � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 12

13. HeadScratchingA Process � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 13

14. Getting Clear  � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 14 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007

15. Empty your Bucket Approach a problem or task as if you know nothing about barriers. You may not know what to do, or how to accomplish it � but there IS a solution. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 15

16. Inspection Example: �We need to improve the quality of our services� Who is �We�? Need � What�s the need? Is it a want? Why is it a need? Improve to what? Over what period of time? Measured by who? Quality � Is there a clear definition? Who is �Our�? Services - All services, every touch, to whom? � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 16 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007

17. Ask Why? � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 17

18. Ask So What? Why does this matter? What is important? What is the cause and effect? How does this relate to the issue? How will this impact the business? People will �Think� more about how information affects their work, dependencies and inter-relationships of events and results. People will Prepare and Quality will improve � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 18

19. Getting Clear  � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 19 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007 .� HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007

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22. Thinking �Outside the Box�To go beyond �the box� you have to know what the box is. The �box� is determined by assumptions, experiences and beliefs � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 22 A Crystal Ball. Some problems, such as a schedule, are a prediction of the future, and therefore cannot be known until that future occurs (unless you have crystal ball). Triangular Thinking is a way to create that crystal ball. When you cannot or don�t know how to directly measure something, you can combine different hypothesis, trends, predictions and observations, and �vector in�, or �triangulate� on an answer. Example of Triangular Thinking with respect to a Schedule Example of Triangular Thinking with respect to a Forecast for the take rate of a new product. One method (one vector) would be to consider the actual customer acquisition model, for example, maybe direct mail. If you mail to 100,000 people and you think you�ll get a 2% response, that gives you 2,000 people who will respond. If you think you�ll close 20% of those, that leaves you with 400 sales. That�s one number. Look now at another vector; e.g. Trend. What has been the track record of new product introductions in the past? If this new introduction is similar, then you might expect similar results. Lastly, perhaps look at the industry and competitive offerings and their take rates (through analysts research, etc), and what market share you might expect. The Triangulation. If all three answers above yield approximately the same value, then you can proclaim that maybe you know what you�re talking about, i.e. they vector in on the same answer, and therefore there is a good probability that this will be true. Conversely, and just as important, if they don�t �triangulate� then maybe your hypothesis or assumptions are incorrect and need to be revisited before coming to a conclusion. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007 A Crystal Ball. Some problems, such as a schedule, are a prediction of the future, and therefore cannot be known until that future occurs (unless you have crystal ball). Triangular Thinking is a way to create that crystal ball. When you cannot or don�t know how to directly measure something, you can combine different hypothesis, trends, predictions and observations, and �vector in�, or �triangulate� on an answer. Example of Triangular Thinking with respect to a Schedule Example of Triangular Thinking with respect to a Forecast for the take rate of a new product. One method (one vector) would be to consider the actual customer acquisition model, for example, maybe direct mail. If you mail to 100,000 people and you think you�ll get a 2% response, that gives you 2,000 people who will respond. If you think you�ll close 20% of those, that leaves you with 400 sales. That�s one number. Look now at another vector; e.g. Trend. What has been the track record of new product introductions in the past? If this new introduction is similar, then you might expect similar results. Lastly, perhaps look at the industry and competitive offerings and their take rates (through analysts research, etc), and what market share you might expect. The Triangulation. If all three answers above yield approximately the same value, then you can proclaim that maybe you know what you�re talking about, i.e. they vector in on the same answer, and therefore there is a good probability that this will be true. Conversely, and just as important, if they don�t �triangulate� then maybe your hypothesis or assumptions are incorrect and need to be revisited before coming to a conclusion. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007

23. DecisionsA decision is taking action on a conclusion � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 23

24. �We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.� Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955) � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 24

25. Leading Others to Think Critically In order to get others to �Think�, there has to be a need for them to �Think�. You may have to generate that need. One way is to ask open ended questions. Don�t give your opinion, don�t offer a suggestion, don�t comment, just ask questions � and wait for the answer ! Try this at your work: For 10 minutes, Ask questions without commenting on the answers or giving advice or suggestions. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 25 � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007 � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2007

26. HeadScratchingA Process � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 26

27. � HeadScratchers LLC 2005-2010 27