WILL OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE BE ADEQUATED & CAPABLE?

1. WILL OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE BE ADEQUATED & CAPABLE? SHRMC Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development November 12, 2013

2. ITEMS IN TODAY’S PRESENTATION • THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED • WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS • WHO IS IN DEMAND • SKILLS EXPLORER APP 2

4. THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED AND SO MUST YOU

5. ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 5

6. ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 6

7. JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

8. WHAT IS THE NEW ECONOMY

9. EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY • 19th Century – • Bigger and Better Farms • 20th Century – • Bigger and Better Factories • 21st Century – • Bigger and Better Ideas 9

10. Old Economy Raw Materials Cost Race to Bottom Workers Chased Jobs Quality of Life was luck of the draw New Economy Brain Power Value-Added Products Businesses Chase Talent QoL attracts talent NEW ECONOMYCHANGED CONSTRUCT

11. Stocks In Stocks Out • Intel • Microsoft • SBC (SWBell) • Home Depot • Pfizer* • Union Carbide • Goodyear • Chevron • Sears Roebuck • International Paper* CHANGES IN THE 30 DOW INDUSTRIALSNOVEMBER 1999 * As of 2004

12. DESIGNED HERE ASSEMBLED THERE • Designed in California • Assembled in China

13. KATHLEEN

14. 2005 Income before Taxes • from Car Sales • ($1.0 Billion) • from Financial Services • $3.5 Billion Greater Capitalized Value than Ford and GM Combined

15. Workforce development and economic development are interrelated and interdependent. Ed = ED

16. So, what will be the biggest socio-economic policy challenge in the next 20 years?

17. ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?

18. OR PERHAPSTHE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL VERSION

19. QUANTITY

20. WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

21. BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

22. WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCEHIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

23. LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPR RETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

24. NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSINDEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK Source: Office of Economic Advisors

25. QUALITY

26. NEW ECONOMYNEED FOR SKILLS "The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines." – Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President,Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.

27. CHANGES IN WORKFORCE SKILL REQUIREMENTS OVER THE LAST FIFTY YEARS Unskilled 12% Skilled 20% Unskilled 60% Professional 20% Professional 20% Skilled 68% Then Now WorkKeys and the National Career Readiness Certificate are registered trademarks of ACT, Inc.

28. TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABY I DON’T THINK SO

29. WHERE ARE THE PEOPLETECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTE

30. NEW ECONOMYNEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION “Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.” – Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation 30

31. WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTS CHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK* Nonroutine interactive Nonroutine analytical Routine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine manual * Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003 Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

32. EDUCATION INCLINATIONGAINS LIMITED AT BEST

33. Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before; Assured – demographics will change little; Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly. WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:

34. Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate; Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed; Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both. RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:

35. LOW INCOME GROWTH LEADS TO: DETERIORATION OF ECONOMIC CONDITION AND QUALITY OF LIFE • Lower per capita income • Decreased tax base / Budget deficits • Lower bond ratings • Decreased school funding and teacher salaries • Less & fewer public services • Lower quality of life 35

36. Who is in demand?

37. MOST JOB OPENINGS BY OCCUPATION *Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.

38. MOST JOB OPENINGS ON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN

39. MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGES CHARACTERISTICS

40. WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUE FIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS

41. A PEEK AT THE LATEST & GREATEST APP SINCE THE CLASSIFIED ADVERTISMENT

42. SKILLS EXPLORERTRANSFORMATIVE

43. COMBINE KEY COMPONENTSINTO USABLE TOOL

44. READY?

45. Welder Metal Worker Assembler and Fabricator

46. Complementary tool to be used by: Job Seekers Hiring Managers Workforce Development Stakeholders Technical College System Workforce Development Boards Economic Developers

47. Usability Results

48. Feasibility Results

49. Overall Utility Results

50. Was the skills and education page useful?