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Opportunities and Challenges in Deploying Renewables into the Mainstream

Opportunities and Challenges in Deploying Renewables into the Mainstream. Pieter Boot Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency. demosEUROPA and Danish Embassy Joint Seminar Warsaw, 19 November 2008. Global Power Generation Mix Scenarios. 46.5%

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Opportunities and Challenges in Deploying Renewables into the Mainstream

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  1. Opportunities and Challenges in Deploying Renewables into the Mainstream Pieter Boot Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency demosEUROPA and Danish Embassy Joint Seminar Warsaw, 19 November 2008

  2. Global Power Generation MixScenarios 46.5% Renewables [Source: ETP 2008] Renewables would have to play a particularly significant role in the power sector, increasing from 18% today to nearly 50% by 2050. Non-hydro renewables show the highest growth rate.

  3. Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050 An Energy Revolution [Source: ETP 2008]

  4. Deploying Renewables:Principles for Effective Policies Launched on 29 September in Berlin • Download Executive Summary at http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/DeployRenew2008SUM.pdf • Contactsamantha.olz@iea.org

  5. Achieved (by 2005) and Additional realisable mid-term potential (by 2020) for RES-E Achieved (2005) and additional realisable mid-term (up to 2020) potential for RES-Electricity by country (OECD+BRICS) – in absolute terms (TWh)

  6. Effectiveness & EfficiencyWind On-shore 2005 (OECD & BRICS) Long-term predictable incentives(FIT or FIP)+Appropriate framework  Effectiveness Higher risk (TGC)+Non-economic barriers Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008

  7. Effectiveness & EfficiencySolid biomass elec. 2005 (OECD+BRICS) TGC FIT/FIP Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008

  8. Main Lessons Learntand Conclusions

  9. Effective policies only in a limited set of countries Sometimes depending on specific technology Perceived risk, more than profit, is key to policy effectiveness & efficiency Price support can not be adequately addressed in isolation; non-economic barriers must be addressed concurrently Grid barriers Administrative barriers Social acceptance issues Other barriers (e.g. training, information, financial, etc.) Effective systems have, in practice, frequently been the most cost efficient Technology-specific support is key for both effectiveness and cost-efficiency Main Lessons Learnt (1)

  10. Main Lessons Learnt (2) ‘Feed-In Tariff vs. Quota Obligation System/ Tradable Green Certificate’ debate misleading Both systems show success and failures depending on specific country and technology Precise design criteria and fine-tuning are key Signs of convergence: Feed-In Tariff: Premium tariff option, time digression Quota System/Tradable Green Certificate: Technology banding

  11. Remove non-economic barriers to improve market functioning Establish predictable support framework - to attract investments Set up transitional incentives decreasing over time – to foster and monitor technological innovation and move towards market competitiveness Ensure specific support in function of technology maturity to exploit potential of large RET range With increasing mass-scale RET penetration impact on overall energy system must be taken into account Key Principles for Effective Renewable Energy Policies Continuity Certainty

  12. Fostering RE’s transition towards mass market integration 4. Technology-neutral competitionTGC, Carbon trading (e.g. EU ETS) Mature tech (e.g. hydro) 3. Shared/imposed market risk, guaranteed minimum but declining supportFIP, TGC (technology banding) Market Deployment Low cost-gap (e.g. wind onshore) 1. Development RD&D financing, capital cost support, investment tax credits, rebates, loan guarantees 2. Stable, low-risk, shelteredFIT, FIP, Tenders High cost-gap (e.g. PV) Prototype & demo stage (e.g. 2nd gen biofuels) Time Development Niche markets Mass market

  13. Realise urgency to implement effective policies to exploit majorpotential of RETs in terms of energy security and climate change mitigation Remove and overcome non-economic barriers first Exploit substantial potential for improvement of policy effectiveness and efficiency: learn from good practice Focus on rigorous and coherent implementation of key policy design principles with regard to long-term cost efficiency and national circumstances Create level playing field by pricing in GHG emissions and other externalities & removingsubsidiesfor conventional energy Allow a combination framework of incentive schemes in function of technology maturity level Recommendations Urgent action for Energy Technology Revolution

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