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Linking Economic Models to Ecosystem Models: Biofuel Examples

Linking Economic Models to Ecosystem Models: Biofuel Examples. Bill Parton Steve Del Grosso Sarah Davis Bruce McCarl Steve Williams Steve Ogle. Outline. Ecosystem Models DayCent model description & testing EPIC, DNDC, BIOM-BGC Linking to Economic Models Fully linked

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Linking Economic Models to Ecosystem Models: Biofuel Examples

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  1. Linking Economic Models to Ecosystem Models: Biofuel Examples Bill Parton Steve Del Grosso Sarah Davis Bruce McCarl Steve Williams Steve Ogle

  2. Outline • Ecosystem Models • DayCent model description & testing • EPIC, DNDC, BIOM-BGC • Linking to Economic Models • Fully linked • Economic → Ecosystem • Ecosystem → Economic • Biofuel Ecosystem Model Results • Pennsylvania • Illinois • Conclusions

  3. Fully Linked Economic and Ecological Models Optimal Land Use Practice Economic Model Land Use Change and Ag Management • Ecological Model Assessment • NPP • Greenhouse Gas Fluxes

  4. Advantages • All land use options can be assessed Disadvantages • Complex model • Excess computer time • Vulnerable to errors

  5. Economic Models Drive Ecological Models • Use FASM U.S. Agricultural Model to predict biofuel land use change • Expansion of ag land into: • CRP • Grassland • Forests

  6. Economic Models Drive Ecological Models • DayCent Model simulated ecosystem response • Plant production • N2O fluxes • Soil C changes • Change in crop acreage • Corn vs. Soybean vs. Wheat

  7. Grassland/Degraded Land

  8. Ecological Models Drive Economic Models • Use ecological models to drive response surfaces used in economic models • N2O vs. Fertilizer • Yield vs. Fertilizer • Soil C vs. Land Use and Fertilizer

  9. Response Surface Modeling

  10. Global Model Results

  11. Beach, R.H., B.J. DeAngelo, S. Rose, C. Li, W. Salas, S.J. DelGrosso. 2008. Mitigation potential and costs for global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural Economics 38: 109–115.

  12. Biofuel Crop Specific Greenhouse Gas Budget • Pennsylvania • Switchgrass • Corn/Soybean • Popular • Illinois/Iowa • Switchgrass • Miscanthus

  13. Adler, P.R., S.J. Del Grosso, and W.J. Parton. 2007. Life cycle assessment of net greenhouse gas flux for bioenergy cropping systems. Ecol. Appl. 17(3):675–691.

  14. Greenhouse gas sources and sinks from bioenergy cropping systems in the near-term Adler, P.R., S.J. Del Grosso, and W.J. Parton. 2007. Life cycle assessment of net greenhouse gas flux for bioenergy cropping systems. Ecol. Appl. 17(3):675–691.

  15. Observed and DAYCENT N2O for Biofuel Cropping Systems in Pennsylvania

  16. S. C. Davis

  17. S. C. Davis

  18. S. C. Davis

  19. S. C. Davis

  20. Summary • Fully linked models are difficult to use • Offline linking of models works well • Net greenhouse gas balances are a function of: • Specific biofuel crop • Perennial vs. annual • Land use prior to start of biofuel crop • Existing cropland • CRP/mature grassland? • Tillage and fertilizing practice

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