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Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services

5-Year Implementation Plan/FY 2002-2006 April 13, 2000. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services. Environmental Assessment and Prediction Mission. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services:

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Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services

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  1. 5-Year Implementation Plan/FY 2002-2006 April 13, 2000 Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services

  2. Environmental Assessment and Prediction Mission Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services: NOAA will significantly improve short-term warning and forecast products and services that enhance public safety and the economic productivity of the Nation. Implement Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts: NOAA will provide one-year lead time forecasts of known skill of global climate variability (El Nino) and the consequent precipitation and temperature distribution to increase society’s ability to mitigate economic losses and social disruption Predict and Assess Decadal to Centennial Change: NOAA will provide science-based options for decisions regarding decadal to centennial change in the global environment, specifically for: climate change and greenhouse warming; ozone layer depletion; and air quality improvement Promote Safe Navigation NOAA will revolutionize U.S. navigation and surveying and assist commercial shipping in moving increased cargoes safely and efficiently

  3. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services Objectives • Sustain NWS Modernized Operations • Maintain Satellite Continuity • Enhance Observations and Predictions • Improve Service Communication and Utilization

  4. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services Strategies for FY 2002- 2006 Customer Driven/Service-Science Linkage • Sustain Modernized Infrastructure • Build Upon “Success” of Previous Efforts (e.g. AHPS,USWRP) • Provide necessary resources to meet accepted goals • Improve Dissemination and Use of Weather Information • Accelerate Technology Infusion • Operationalize Space Weather Forecasts • Improve Service Programs (e.g., Aviation, Marine)

  5. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services Approach • Workshops • Science Advisory Board • Interagency Activities (Leveraging) • Line Office Workshops • Project Workshops Constituent Interaction ASTWF Meetings • Discussions/Strategy • Priorities

  6. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services Results from Constituent Planning and Priorities Workshop Initiatives • U.S. Weather Research Program • Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service • Improve Aviation Forecasts • Improve Coastal Marine Forecasts Recommendations • Enhance Use of Current Satellite Data • Address National Warning False Alarm Rates • Improve NEXRAD Product • Improve Numerical Weather Prediction Efforts

  7. Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast ServicesOverview • 10% Growth/$73.1M • #1 Priority: Sustain Infrastructure - $15.3M • Balance for New Initiatives - $57.8M • New PAC Items - $19.0M • Mega Initiative: Predict and Reduce Watershed Impacts of Coastal Storms (PREWICS) - $25.7M • Critical Infrastructure Protection: $32.7M

  8. O R & F

  9. Sustain Infrastructure $15.3M Summary Page • NWS - $7.6M • WFO Facilities Maintenance $4.8M • NCEP Environmental ModelingCenter Operations $2.8M • NESDIS - $7.7M • Restore Environmental ObservingSystem Line Item $6.0M • Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing $1.7M

  10. WFO Facilities Maintenance (+$4.8M) • Total FY 2002 request $10.1M • Top priority for NWS Management • Necessary to provide basic maintenance and repair to 120 Weather Forecast Offices and sustained services • Protect $250M capital investment in modernized facilities • Addresses highest priority deferred maintenance actions • Utilized GSA and Industry Standards to validate estimates

  11. NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Operations (+$2.8M) • Insufficient base resources to support current operational models • 55% of EMC currently supported through “external funding”, including basic model maintenance • Uncertain nature of external funding adds unacceptable risk to sustaining NWS operations • NOAA review concluded base funding should be increased from 45% to 75% to mitigate risk to operational support Current Funding Source NWS 45% Non-NOAA 9% Other NOAA 46%

  12. Restore Environmental Observing Services(+$6.0M) Pending Requests For NESDIS Products February 16, 2000 • Have not received adjustments for inflation since 1996 • Greater demand for NESDIS products • Unfunded product increases complexity; no resources to cover this increase No. of Products Environmental Satellite Products Year Requested Early 1990’s Current GOES Imagery GOES Low Density Winds POES Imagery TOVS Sounding DMSP Shared Processing Products POES Sea Surface Temperatures Hand-drawn weekly snow & ice FAA/USGS Volcanic Ash Support GOES Sounder Products GOES High Density Winds POES aerosols, Ozone, and NVDI Radiation Budget GMS Imagery INDOEX Imagery iNSAT Imagery ATOVS Soundings SSM/T-2 Soundings ERS, ADEOS, & QuikCAT Ocean Winds CoastWatch Program GOES Sea Surface Temperatures Ocean Color Coral Reef (Bleaching) Altimetry (sea hgt, geostrophic currents) Multi-spacecraft daily snow & ice Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Hazardous Support System Satellite Active Archive/Pathfinder

  13. Restore Environmental Observing Services(+$6.0M) • Impact of not restoring funding • Increased risk to spacecraft data, health, and safety • Extended outages and degraded performance • Freeze in current product technology; delays in delivery of new satellite products to forecast offices • NWS forecast improvements will stagnate without benefits of satellite data

  14. Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing (+$1.7M) • Statutory responsibility for licensing and enforcement • Potential Congressional or Administration intervention for failure to adequately administer these responsibilities • Funds would have to be redirected from other critical NOAA mission responsibilities Projected Launches System Earliest Launch QuikBird-1 early 2000 QuikBird-2 mid/late 2000 OrbView-3 mid/late 2000 OrbView-4 late 2000 NEMO mid/late 2001 Astrovision late 2001 Radar-1 mid 2002 Resource 21 2003

  15. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) Hurricane Floyd 9/13/99 What? • Focused program of research, demonstration, operational implementation, and user outreach focused on: • Hurricanes • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts • Data Assimilation; Optimal Mix of Observations • Implementation plans completed for HAL and QPF/Optimal Mix

  16. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) Why? • Critical forecast and research issues associated with hurricane track, intensity, and QPF remain! • Total evacuation costs from Floyd $1B • Insured losses from Floyd $1BSource: FEMA

  17. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) 24 Hour Forecast Totals from 00Z 24 Jan 24 Hour Forecast Totals from 12Z 24 Jan Why?(cont) • Precipitation is at the heart of most hazardous weather and major property loss • Improved forecasts require an improved analysis of all available data 36 Hr Forecast Valid 12Z 25 Jan. 24 Hr Forecast Valid 12Z 25 Jan. Observed Snowfall

  18. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) Actions • Tie specifically to detailed USWRP implementation plans/5-year program • Involve OAR Labs, NWS/NCEP, NESDIS/ORA in specific field programs for Atlantic (HAL) and Pacific (extend forecast accuracy/QPF); Leverage NASA, NSF and DoD supported research • Focus on enhanced data assimilation with satellite and targeted observations; Build off NASA/NOAA White Paper • Create NCEP/EMC Testbed; Accelerate technology infusion; Link to NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Incorporate satellites, radar, and targeted aircraft observations (e.g., G-IV and operational reconnaissance aircraft) Mid and Low Level Winds Upper Level Winds

  19. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) Expected Results • Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan for HAL) • Support HAL multi-year field programs • Reduce landfall track and intensity forecasts error by 20% • Increase warning leadtime to and beyond 24 h with 95% confidence without increasing the present 3 to 1 overwarning • Make skillful (compared to persistence) forecasts of onset of gale(34-kt) and hurricane force (64-kt) radii out to 48 h

  20. U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M) Expected Results • Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan for QPF and Optimal Mix) • Support Pacific THORPEX field program • Extend skill of forecasts at Day 5, 6, 7 by two full days • Extend QPFs out to 3 days and improve skill of day 1-3 QPFs to improve inland flooding forecasts

  21. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(+$6.1M) What? • Improve flood and river predictions to move people out of harm’s way (longer lead times; probabilistic river forecast information for risk-based decisions) • Enhance snow-water equivalent observations for Spring flooding Why? • 75 percent of Presidentially- declared disasters are flood related • Respond to user needs for improved river stage forecasts • Capitalize on $1M in FY 2001 President’s budget • Accelerate implementation across the country at reduced costs NWS River Forecast Service Locations

  22. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(+$6.1M) New Program Services • Faster nationwide implementation • Use existing RFC model calibration at 60% of forecast locations • Fund full calibration at remaining 40% forecast locations • Provide initial graphical services at 12 versus 2 River Forecast Centers in FY00 • Infuse new hydrologic/hydraulic models • Incremental service delivery • Graphical products available when initial calibration is ready for a forecast location • Predictions with probability information available when full calibration ready for a forecast location • Inundation maps available at all forecast sites when partners provide topographic data • Expand snow water equivalent data Previous Program Services • Basin by basin implementation • Fund full calibration at all basins • Use static model • Services delivered only when all components are ready • Graphical products • Forecasts with probability levels • Inundation mapping at 10% of forecasts locations • Limited snow data Total Cost = $44M Total Cost = $106M

  23. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(+$6.1M) Actions • Provide National delivery of web-ready graphical products • Infuse new hydrology and hydraulic models into operations • Refresh operational software • Partnered inundation mapping • Collect snow-water equivalent data nationwide • Provide training/outreach • Verification National Airborne Snow Surveys • 500 present airborne measurements/year • 3300 proposed airborne measurements/year(including 670 new measurements in Alaska)

  24. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(+$6.1M) Expected Results • Extend current 1, 2, 3 day river forecasts out to 2 weeks and beyond • Provide river forecasts with uncertainty information for risk-based decisions • Expected savings $600M/year • $200M/year in flood losses • $400M/year in water resources

  25. % Improvement Since 1987 400% Percent 200% No Improvement Services Aviation Services(+$10.1M) What? • Improve accuracy, timeliness, and utility of aviation forecasts and warnings/ reduce false alarm rates Why? • Meets constituent demands for improved services • Supports White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security • Addresses FAA / TMU “Needs Document” • Aviation Forecasts have not improved in the past 20 years • Large economic losses due to air traffic delays • Contribute to a coordinated federal effort that meets expectations of commercial and private aviation community

  26. Airline Dispatchers FAA/Flight Service Stations FAA/Controllers Users NASA/ AWIN WFOs Improved Observations, Forecasts, & Warnings CWSUs NWS R&D Universities/ NOAA/ERL FAA/ Safer Skies AWC AAWU Pilots Aviation Services(+$10.1M) Actions • Acquire new observing tools • Airborne Humidity and Turbulence Sensors (through MDCRS), • Millimeter cloud radar (test and demonstrate) • Develop advanced techniques / products • Develop flight level guidance products • Augment Aviation testbeds at AWC and AAVU • Develop products for detection and alerts of volcanic ash • Develop new graphical products

  27. Aviation Services(+$10.1M) Expected Results/Benefits • Reduce costly delays and aviation accident rates • Improved icing, turbulence and volcanic ash forecasts • Capitalize on complementary science and technology advances to yield improved aviation weather products (TAFS, TWEBS, AWW, LAA, enroute aviation warnings and areal forecasts) • Accelerate science and technology infusion

  28. Technology Infusion Program(+$6.0M) Technology Comparison - NWS Field System What? • Establish a Technology Infusion Program to replace NWS Field Systems with state-of-the-art systems at lower costs Why? • Keeps technology current, flexible, efficient and inexpensive to upgrade • Necessary to avoid another major modernization effort • Builds on existing infrastructure at NWS, FSL, NSSL and NCEP 1995 2005 HPUX Linux HP PC-64 Speed=1 Speed=45 100Megabit Gigabit 300 Gbyte 500 Gbyte

  29. Technology Infusion Program(+$6.0M) Actions • Sustain development and demonstration of new technology for NWS Field Systems • Prototype and risk reduction (develop 5 testbeds) Expected Results • More flexible field system upgrade at lower costs • Technological basis for advanced, accurate, timely, detailed forecasts and warnings

  30. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(+$3.0M) What? • NOAA component of proposed NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Why? • Need to accelerate the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models • NWS uses only about 15% of available satellite data • Upcoming explosion in advanced instruments and data will challenge entire research community (NPOES; GPS; Lidar winds; Microwave) • Need coordination of intellectual resources (NESDIS, NWS, OAR - with NASA / DAO) Satellite Data Volumes (Gb/day)

  31. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(+$3.0M) Expected Results • Improved weather forecasts • Expanded use of satellite data • Extension of range of useful forecasts • More accurate short-term mesoscale forecast - severe weather • Improved planning of future satellite instruments Actions • Establish joint center (with NASA as partner) • Address “emissivity over land” issue to expand utilization of satellite radiances • Create “forward radiance transfer models” for all new instruments; OPTRANS extensions • Focus on data assimilation (e.g., GPS, GIFTS) • OSSE evaluation for advanced instrumentation

  32. Space Weather Operational Product Suite(+$4.0M) What? • Integrate space weather forecasts into the NWS operational product suite Why? • Space weather operations are mature but limited by not being integrated into the full NWS infrastructure (comms, training, customer outreach through WFO)

  33. Space Weather Operational Product Suite(+$4.0M) Actions • Establish NCEP funding for space weather operations • Produce operational space weather alerts, warnings and forecasts • Develop a space weather training program for NWS staff • Transmit space weather products through NWS communications link • Develop outreach program Expected Results/Benefits • Easier and uniform access to NOAA’s environmental products

  34. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M) What? • Improved tsunami warning forecasts (longer lead times, wave height predictions) and improved planning at local level Why? • Current NOAA product of tsunami time of arrival is inadequate to protect life and property for threatened communities • NOAA false alarm rate is too high • Continues program funded by Congress since FY 1997

  35. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M) Actions • Operate and maintain 6 deep ocean tsunami detection systems • Produce tsunami inundation and evacuation maps • Develop education and mitigation program in concert with FEMA’s all hazards program Expected Results/Benefits • Faster, more accurate tsunami warnings • Improved understanding and reaction to tsunamis by coastal communities • Reduction in false alarms • Sustain support for long-term tsunami hazard mitigation

  36. Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)(+$6.4M) What? • A program to develop, test and implement satellite-based products to identify potential risk of hazardous events (drought, fire, floods, pollution, heat, etc.) Why? • Disaster costs are high and rising (1992-1996 averaged $54.3B/year) • Emergency managers need early warning to plan for response and mitigation • Potential exists to provide global outlooks and assessments for hazardous events; develop product suite applicable for GDIN

  37. Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)(+$6.4M) Actions • Develop and validate hazard risk assessment products based on satellite observation • Provide experimental products and response services • Transfer product suite to National Disaster Information Center for FY 2006 operations Expected Results/Benefits • Establish global alert; improve planning for potential natural hazard events • Provide real time support during hazardous events • Expand utility of satellite observations

  38. Space Weather Infrastructure and Development(+$3.6M) What? • Continuous data acquisition and decision aids for space weather forecasting Why? • Lack of an established mechanism to convert mature research models into operational forecasts tools • Need to upgrade data management system • Need to fill gaps in real-time satellite tracking

  39. Space Weather Infrastructure and Development(+$3.6M) Actions • Acquire new database system and ground station • Develop decision aids such as SCAN for space weather • Increase awareness of space weather impacts • Support archival of new data Expected Results/Benefits • Flexible, modern data management system • Continuous and reliable operational, non-NOAA data acquisition • Better, more timely forecast with wider dissemination to users

  40. P A C

  41. PAC Summary($ in Millions) FY 02 Increase/Decrease (from OMB Ceiling) NOAA Science Center * .5 NWS Telecommunications Gateway Modernization * 6.1 G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade * 6.9 NOAA Aircraft (P-3/Turbo Commander) * 5.5 NEXRAD .3 ASOS 2.5 AWIPS 1.3 Central Computer Upgrade 5.0 WFO Construction 6.1 NOAA Weather Radio .5 GOES I-M GOES N-Q Polar K-N Polar Convergence * Represents new PAC items ** Awaiting NASA Pricing ** **** **

  42. NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M) • $1.0M total request • World Weather Building inadequate to meet NCEP infrastructure support requirements • crowded vintage 1973 work space • inadequate environmental controls • cannot facilitate synergistic interaction with research community • Initial funding for requirements development, alternatives, and other studies for a new state-of-the-art NOAA Science Center • Joint effort between NCEP, NESDIS, and OAR • NASA interaction: Facilitate Joint NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data Assimilation PAC

  43. NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M)Project Development, Approval, and Management (PDAM)Process Pre Planning Planning Scoping CurrentStatus LeaseAcquisition Design&Construction DP1 AA Approval Occupancy DP2 DUS Approval

  44. NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M) NWP/Radar Data Volume • Critical link in national and international infrastructure that collects and distributes weather data • 10 year old system, nearing effective life cycle • Operating system for message switching 1950’s technology • NWP, radar, and internet data volumes increasing • System requirements • Data processing: 700GB by FY 2002 for NWP and radar • Processing speed: warnings - 10 sec/watches - 1 min • Reliability: 99.9% Daily Volume PAC

  45. NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M) • Actions • Upgrade system hardware • Increase disk storage • Replace communication matrix switch • Upgrade LAN and interface cards • Router upgrades • Enhanced software Internet Server Demand User Accesses/Second

  46. G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade (+$6.9M) • Observations from G-IV proven to be valuable tool in forecasting hurricane and winter storm tracks • One-year funding for C-Band Scatterometer/Doppler Profiler • Instrument will provide jet with the capability of describing entire vertical and horizontal storm structure critical to the warning process • Important asset to meet objectives of “Hurricane at Landfall” component of the U.S. Weather Research Program PAC

  47. Hurricane Luis Vertical Cross Section - Wind Speeds Upper Level Divergence Lower Level Convergence PAC

  48. NOAA Aircraft (P3/Turbo Commander) (+$5.5M) • Replenish P3 maintenance account (cracked wing spars) $4.0M • Conduct P3 service life extension study $0.5M • Refurbish Turbo Commander for snow surveys $1.0M • Aircraft 26 years old and is oldest aircraft in NOAA fleet Turbo Commander P3 PAC

  49. NEXRAD Product Improvement Enhancements(+$0.3M) • $17.1M total request • Profile change: • Implement new algorithms in WSR-88D Precipitation Processing Subsystem to improve quality of rainfall products(particularly in cool season and in mountainous areas) • Improve radar signal quality(techniques for range/velocity uncertainty mitigation) • Distinguish among rain, snow and hail (dual polarization improvements) • Replace radio frequency generator and analog receiver (digital) beginning in FY03 PAC

  50. NEXRAD Product Improvement Enhancements(+$0.3M) Actions • Complete Open Systems Radar Product Generator (ORPG) acquisition and deployment at 125 sites • Begin Open Systems Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) with 31 units • Begin FAA radar integration • Begin level II data archive

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