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ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD. Presented by Group 3 Members: GUNGOOSINGH Sonali HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss PIERRE-LOUIS Antoine QUATRE Rudolph RAMDAWOR Nitish. INTRODUCTION. Simple method of population forecasting. Based on the results of at least two censuses.

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ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

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  1. ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD Presented by Group 3 Members: • GUNGOOSINGH Sonali • HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss • PIERRE-LOUIS Antoine • QUATRE Rudolph • RAMDAWOR Nitish

  2. INTRODUCTION • Simple method of population forecasting. • Based on the results of at least two censuses. • Results obtained from extrapolation of values from latest enumeration.

  3. HOW METHOD WORKS? Assumption : Present population density changes uniformly with time. Where P – population at any given time t k – constant rate

  4. HOW METHOD WORKS? Arithmetic Increase Method Equation: Where Pf– future population after time t (years) P0 – present population k – constant rate

  5. EXAMPLE Population of Reduit from following census figures:

  6. EXAMPLE

  7. EXAMPLE P0 = 120,000 k = +857.1 ≈ +860 In 2022 : t = 10  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 10) = 128,600 In 2032 : t = 20  Pf= 120,000 + (860 x 20) = 137,200 In 2035 : t = 23  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 23) = 139,780 In 2042 : t = 30  Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 30) = 145,800

  8. DISCUSSION • Simplest method of extrapolation. • Valid if approximately equal incremental increases are noted in recent censuses. • Method gives too low estimates with time. • Used for short term estimates only, i.e. ≯ 30 yrs • Can be applied to population of large cities.

  9. THANK YOU!

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