Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine

1. Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician Maine Forest Service (MFS) NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA April 13, 2004

2. 3 Analysis Categories • Pass-Through to Northeastern Research Station (NERS) usually a spatial estimate of a specific polygonal area or a owner’s landbase • In-house (requests by the Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Governor’s Office, or Maine Users) • Enhanced Collaboration (combinations of P2, P3, auxiliary MFS data, and models)

3. I serve as the facilitator and a conduit to help users frame their request to NERS in regard to: Area of interest Species Products Table outputs 5 –6 requests per year Examples include: Due diligence for a prospective timberland acquisition A large NIPF (1 Million acres) comparing their in-house inventory to exact FIA data Shrub/Seedling/Sapling composition in IF&W Habitat Management Zones Descriptive analysis of a watershed (Salmon Habitat) Pass-Through

4. Pass-Through cont. • For this category, I do not see the analysis results!

5. In-House • This is the most frequent category for analysis requests (Average of 1 per month) • As a full-fledged cooperator, I have to be sensitive, respectful, and law-abiding in regards to the confidentiality issues surrounding some of the data • These analysis requests are more broad scale, I.e. simple working circles, entire counties, or statewide estimates

6. Northern White Cedar Inventory for Aroostook County (Sawmill) Merchantable inventory within a 100 mile radius of Fort Kent, ME (E D Director) White Birch inventory and quality in the Western Maine FIA unit (E D Director) Available Spruce-Fir inventory that is 5.0” to 8.9” DBH, log quality, and within 100 miles of Greenville, ME (sawmill expansion) Available Spruce-Fir inventory within 50 miles of Dover-Foxcroft, ME (sawmill expansion) In-House, examples

7. 100 mile wood basket of White Pine pulpwood (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source) of hemlock pulp (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source) of white pine (potential new supply source for OSB plant) Bio-diversity indices – distance of P2 plot to nearest road, 15”+ dbh TPA live, dead, snag Volume distribution between sawlog and topwood Projected annual Spruce-Fir ingrowth over next 10 years In-House, examples cont.

8. Enhanced Collaboration • This category uses the synergy from combining multiple data sources and predictive models to produce estimates and analysis that are either uncommon or unique, but always interesting • Infrequent (3 – 4 per year), but much more time-consuming

9. White Pine Management in the Core Area (1959 – 2001) • Focused analysis on inventory, trends, and change in the southern 1/3 of Maine that contains 2/3’s of the White Pine Inventory (FIA data and MFS Data) • Land Use Changes • Forestland Conversion (P2 vs. MFS Reports) • Trends in Forest types and stand size • Product volume and log grades • Growth vs. Removals (P2 vs. MFS Processor Reports)

11. Soil Erosion Prediction • Combining data from P2 and P3 plots for input into the the Disturbed WEPP model, resulting in a probability prediction of an annual runoff, erosion, and sediment estimate for three types of plot areas: • Undisturbed • Harvested • 1998 Ice Storm

12. Ice Storm Damage vs. Tree Condition • Current poster session presents an analysis of the correlation between changes in Tree Condition between 1995 and a subsequent annual P2 remeasurement (2001 – 2003) to 4 preliminary damage assessment groups aerially conducted by the MFS immediately following the 1998 Ice Storm.

13. White Birch Availability - Regional • Pride Manufacturing, located in Maine and Wisconsin, is the world’s largest producer of golf tees (standard, oversized, and customized). • The wood drain area for the Burnham, ME mill encompasses over 200 air miles. • With NERS help, an analysis of the availability of suitable White Birch Inventory within a 4-state region (MA, ME, NH, VT) was provided.

14. Trees to Oil – Pyrolysis • Received a request in January 2003, for an estimate of available fiber sources (residue or biomass) that were not committed to existing processing and deliverable to an existing pulp/paper mill complex. • Utilized P2 estimates of separate biomass components (bolewood, limbs and tops, foliage, stumps and roots, cull trees, salvable dead trees, saplings, and shrubs for selected 60 mile drain areas around 3 multiple mill groups.

16. Pyrolysis, cont. • Utilized MFS annual county-level harvest estimates of various products (sawlogs, sawmill residue, pulpwood, biomass chips, and hog fuel) for determination of an existing annual removal volume (dry tons) as a percentage of standing inventory, ~ 2%. • Assumed that the same 2% volume basis of other un-utilized biomass components (branches, cull trees, salvable dead trees, and saplings) were available, removable, and deliverable with existing infrastructure.

17. 5 mills in the Southwest (blue polygon) have access to 7,000 dry tons per day • 5 mills in the Downeast Region (red polygon) have access to 8,500 dry tons per day • 1 mill in the North has access to 2,500 dry tons per day

18. Trends in Hardwood Sawtimber • In October 2001, based on the completion of 2 annual panels, I analyzed hardwood sawtimber trends from 1959 – 2000 focusing on 5 species (Red Maple, Sugar Maple, Yellow Birch, White Birch, and Red Oak) and their : • Average sawtimber tree size (QMD) • Volume per acre of sawtimber • Proportion of sawtimber by various grades

20. Trends, cont. • On Thursday, I will revisit the exact same topic with the exact same association, refreshing the analysis to represent the current 4 annual panels. • Has the forecast changed? NO • Is the forecast more accurate? YES

21. Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Credits • Maine has a legislative mandate to reverse its level of greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. • Achieving this goal requires understanding trends and current estimates of the various contributors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. • As the following graph shows, these early estimates placed the LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) category as being the #2 problem area, and responsible for emitting 19% of the 2000 GHG mix.

23. GHG, cont. • MFS with the help of the NERS, an Ag-Forestry Working Group, and other consultants has been actively rebutting those estimates and trends, while offering better data and methods for accounting for Carbon within Maine’s forest resources. • GHG is not just a Maine problem, but has far-reaching implications throughout the NE and Canada. • How much cash are you willing to accept today, to store carbon on the stump for the next 25 years, in lieu of a future harvest?

24. Questions