People and Places Vulnerable to Climate Variability and Extremes:

1. People and Places Vulnerable to Climate Variability and Extremes: Views from the Watershed Communities in the Philippines J. M. Pulhin, R. J. Peras, R. D. Lasco, RV. O. Cruz, and F. B. Pulhin ENFOR-CFNR-UPLB Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific Islands Traders Hotel, 3001 Roxas Blvd., Pasay City, Philippines 2-5 November 2004

2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Assessment Process • Key Findings • Conclusions and Implications

3. Current Vulnerability Assessment Climate Variability/ Extremes and Current Coping Mechanisms General Framework/Methodology of AS 21 GCM Climate Scenario National Climate Scenario Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water, forests and communities Future Vulnerability Assessment Future Adaptation Assessment

4. Objectivesof Assessment • Who are the vulnerable groups in the communities and what factors contribute to their vulnerability? • Where are the vulnerable places located and why do the local communities considered them to be vulnerable? • What implications can be drawn from the study that can improve current understanding on vulnerability and adaptation to future climate change?

5. Assessment Process 1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan National Orientation, Manila CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines DENR Briefing, Philippines

6. Assessment Process 2. Gathering secondary information • Demographic characteristics • Socio-economic characteristics • Geographic factors • Governance structure

7. 3. Field study Time line analysis Participatory impact analysis Participatory mapping of vulnerable groups and places

8. 3. Field study Identification and analysis of adaptation strategies

9. 3. Field study Household interviews GPS reading of vulnerable areas

10. 3. Field study All done by engaging the local stakeholders

11. 4. Data encoding and analysis

12. 5. Presentation and validation of research results • To validate findings and engage stakeholders in adaptation planning • To generate • interest and support • among various sectors • on climate change • initiatives and strengthen • the research-policy link

13. Local stakeholders All done in the context of learning by doing cum capability building approach Ido-China scientists Researchers and officials from Bhutan

14. General Site Description • Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed generally represents a grassland watershed condition • Provides water primarily for hydroelectric generation and irrigation purposes Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed

17. Summary of General Impacts of CV&E to Watershed Communities

18. Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E

19. Adaptation Strategies

20. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L. MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN F.C. OTIC NORTH PROVINCIAL ROAD TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E. TO SAN JOSE RESIDENTIAL MUN. HALL RESIDENTIAL ST. MARKET RESIDENTIAL SANVICENTE G.S. ROSARIO RESIDENTIAL QUEZON ST. RESIDENTIAL SAN FRANCISCO ST. SAN NICOLAS RESIDENTIAL LEGEND : SAN JOAQUIN BETTER-OFF FARMERS SAN BALTAZAR ST. “SMALL” FARMERS EMPLOYEES BUSINESSPERSONS MALBANG CREEK VULNERABLE AREAS

21. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Low-lying, flood-prone settlement areas

22. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Low-lying, flood-prone agricultural areas

23. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Dying river Agricultural land at the tail-end of irrigation canal

24. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Highly erodable areas along riverbanks

25. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Unstable areas that support infrastructure

26. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Roadsides and other steep areas prone to landslides

27. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES Areas highly susceptible to forest fires

28. VULNERABILTY MAP BASED AND BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIAL PARAMETERS - LOW - MODERATE . - HIGH - VULNERABLE SITES (LOCAL PEOPLE)

29. Conclusions and Implications • Engagement of the stakeholders at the different stages of the research process • generates public awareness and interest on the issue • facilitates identification and potentially, implementation of adaptation strategies especially at the local level • Strengthen research-policy interlink • Poor farmers are more vulnerable to CV&E and have lesser capacity to adapt due to: • lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural, and manufactured capital) • past faulty development approach that created sense of dependency among local communities • limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism that provides assistance to the poor • inequitable social structure

30. Conclusions and Implications • Participatory vulnerability assessment has the following benefits: • Complements existing assessment methods like the use of vulnerability index and GIS application, thereby make the assessment more robust • Promotes dialogue with local communities • Increases the chances of enhancing local adaptation

31. Conclusions and Implications • Looking on the multiple stressors that contribute to people’s vulnerability is a useful way of understanding this complex process • Addressing vulnerability should include among others, mainstreaming adaptation in development programs and should aim at empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on external support.

32. Our future depends on reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity NOW!!! THANK YOU!!!