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  1. New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies Richard BallamanChairman of the Working Group on Strategies and Review

  2. Future challenges • Accession to protocols by as many Parties as possible • Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA countries • Further reduction of emissions: NH3, NOx, VOC, SO2, HMs and POPs • Derive new and lower NECs • Good cooperation on transatlantic or hemispheric issues: Hg, O3, PM and POPs

  3. What remains to be done ? • Reduce acidification, especially from NH3 • Decrease eutrophication (N deposition) • Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation damage • Decrease O3 as significant cause of premature death • Decrease population exposure to PM

  4. Health & environmental impact(RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)

  5. Acid deposition to forests(IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  6. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication(IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  7. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours](IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  8. Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year](IIASA) Provisional calculations with 50X50 km resolution

  9. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months](IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  10. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Source: RAINS / IIASA

  11. What can be done ? • Use PM health effects as driving force to further reduce emissions of primary and secondary pollutants • Identify the potential for new technical measures(define BAT to derive ELV) • Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and avoid climate change • Consider structural changes and alternative energy policies

  12. Multi pollutants / multi effects approach with new pollutants and additional problems CO2 N 2O Climate change CH4 Acidification CO SO2 Eutrophication NH3 Particulate matter NOx NMVOC Tropospheric ozone primaryPM Population exposure POPs HMs

  13. Multi pollutants / multi effects approach: extended version with new avenues for action CO2 N 2O Climate change CH4 Acidification CO SO2 Eutrophication Particulate matter NH3 NOx NMVOC Tropospheric ozone Population exposure primaryPM HMs POPs

  14. Emissions 1990 – 2020 (RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)

  15. Source categories to further consider • Ships, diesel vehicles, off-road sector • Industrial processes, solvents • Small combustion (wood burning) • Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage and spreading) • Retrofitting of existing sources • Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)

  16. Cattle number  EF per veh.  Diesel engines  Aviation   Shipping  Milk productivity per animal NH3 emissions  Road traffic (driven mileage)  Total emissions  PM  NOx Total emissions  Relevance of sources will change

  17. Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortality in ACS cohort WHO European Centre for Environment and Health TFH 2003: “..apply the relative risk for all cause mortality… in the extended American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study Pope et al. (2002).” Source: Pope et al, JAMA 2002

  18. Possible challenges beyond 2010 • Increase life expectancy of European population by at least 6 months • Reduce by 50% remaining excess of acidification and eutrophication • Contribute to the avoidance of climate change by reducing O3 and PM concentrations, as well as abatement of CH4 and CO emissions on a regional scale