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Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011

New Orleans Housing Market Assessment Overview and Major Conclusions. Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011. Purpose and Outcomes. Comprehensive supply/demand analysis Extensive primary data collection Forecasts of future demand Geographically nuanced data:

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Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011

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  1. New Orleans Housing Market AssessmentOverview and Major Conclusions Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011

  2. Purpose and Outcomes • Comprehensive supply/demand analysis • Extensive primary data collection • Forecasts of future demand • Geographically nuanced data: • Planning Districts in Orleans Parish • Census “places” in St. Bernard Parish Orleans Parish St. BernardParish

  3. Major Conclusions • Small oversupply of rental housing • Minor by historical standards • Occupancy rates are improving • Surplus of for-sale housing • Forecasts suggest a healthy rental market

  4. Small Oversupply of Rentals Recent “boomlet” is small by historical standards.

  5. Small Oversupply of Rentals • Construction activity has dramatically slowed.

  6. Small Oversupply of Rentals Rents have stabilized – small increase from 2009 to 2010

  7. Affordable Housing Needs • 28% of pre-storm units had rents under $500 • current total is 12% • Nearly 50% of pre-storm units had rents between $500 - $800 • current total is 17% • Acutely felt in deeply affordable category: • 70% of those under 50% AMI have excessive housing costs • Contributing factor – loss of affordable market rate housing

  8. Occupancy Rates Improving Occupancy rates have stabilized since 2008.

  9. Surplus of For-Sale Units • Owner occupied units in 2005 that no longer have a homestead exemption • Highlights increase in single family rentals

  10. Surplus of For-Sale Units Listings increased by 14% Rents per square foot declined by 8%

  11. Surplus of For-Sale Units Units sales have decreased Days on the market have increased

  12. Surplus of For-Sale Units Prices increased from 2009 to 2010 but remain below their 2006 peak 2006 Peak

  13. Demand Forecasts Surplus of 2,062 units Deficit of 5,401 units

  14. New Orleans: Planning District Profiles

  15. District 1CBD, Warehouse District, French Quarter • Highest sales prices in the city • Strong appreciation in sales prices • Highest median rents in the city • Largest concentration of jobs and amenities • Post-Katrina recovery largely complete

  16. District 2Garden District, Central City • High sales prices • “Middle of the pack” along several measures: • Appreciation in sales prices • Median rent • Strong post-storm recovery • Second largest concentration of amenities

  17. District 3Uptown, Broadmoor, Hollygrove • High sales prices • Relatively high median rents • Moderate appreciation in sales prices • Third highest concentration of jobs and amenities • Second strongest recovery among Eastbank districts

  18. District 4Mid-City, Gerttown, Esplanade • Relatively affordable sales prices • Rents are characteristic of city overall • Strong appreciation in sales prices • Moderate pace of recovery • Major concentration of employment and amenities • Major locus of public investment - over $3 billion

  19. District 5Lakeview • Substantial decline in sales prices • High priced area nonetheless • Second highest in median rent • Strong recovery in light of flooding • Primarily residential area • Photo by Infrogmation (flickr)

  20. District 6Gentilly • Extremely affordable area • Little appreciation in sales prices • Moderate pace of recovery • Primarily residential: • Limited commercial amenities • Some major employers but fewer jobs than other districts

  21. District 7Bywater, St. Claude, St. Roch • High values sales prices for homes in excellent condition • Highest sales price appreciation in the city • Extremely affordable rents • Recovery varies by sub-area • Moderate concentration of amenities and employment

  22. District 8Lower 9th Ward, Holy Cross • Slow pace of recovery • Most affordable for-sale market in city • Extremely affordable rents • Few jobs and fewer amenities • Tremendous appreciation in sales prices: • Make It Right homes • Renovated homes in Holy Cross

  23. District 9New Orleans East • Strong recovery in light of flooding • Extremely affordable for-sale market • Low to moderate appreciation in sales prices • Extremely affordable rents • Significant public investment - Road Home grants • Moderate concentration of jobs and commercial activity • Lacking basic retail

  24. District 10 and 11Village De L’Est, Viavant/Venetian Isles • Strong recovery in light of flooding • Most affordable rental market • Strong sales price appreciation: • Small inventory • May reflect major renovations/updates • District 10 is major employment center • Few amenities in either District

  25. District 12Algiers • Affordable for-sale market • Little appreciation in sales prices • Relatively affordable rents • Strong post-Katrina recovery • Moderate concentration of jobs and amenities • Significant public investment - Federal City

  26. District 13English Turn • High real estate values • Significant decline in sales prices • Strong post-Katrina recovery • Uniformly residential community

  27. imiestch@uno.edu Ivan J. Miestchovich, Ph.D. UNO Institute for Economic Development and Real Estate Research 504.280.6904 fax 504.280.3952 405 Kirschman Hall 2000 Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA  70148 www.gcrconsulting.com 504.304.2500 800.259.6192 fax 504.304.2525 2021 Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA 70122UNO Research & Technology ParkAdvanced Technology Center

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