GLOBALIZATION and TRANSNATIONAL THREATS (Terrorism and Crime)

1. GLOBALIZATION andTRANSNATIONAL THREATS(Terrorism and Crime) M.E. (Spike) Bowman Deputy, National Counterintelligence Executive

2. World Order: The Promise • Peace of Westphalia • Territorial Integrity • Political Independence • Equality in Law • Inherent Right of Self-defense • World War I • World War II • United Nations

3. World Order: The Present • WW II generated a new middle class • The world became smaller • Democracy visible to all • 194 Nations

4. End of Cold War • Loosed tensions originally confined by a bi-polar world • Weak states foster crime and conflict • All conflict becomes a breeding ground for corruption, organized and transnational crime and terrorism • Balkans, Iraq, former Soviet client states, African conflict areas

5. Fall of the Wall • Added to tensions: • Created additional space for OC which became increasing transnational • Privatization permitted corruption • Started the trend toward open borders

6. Threats are Transnational • From 1648 until Post WWII, threats to security were defined by borders • Aggressor states no longer the primary cause of transnational problems • Threats exist in weakened states

7. Contemporary Threats International Terrorism Official Corruption Environment Natural Disaster WMD/Proliferation Genocide Inter-State Conflict Espionage Economic Espionage Transnational Organized Crime Supply Chain Front Companies Cyber threats Virtual Reality

8. U.N. CharterArticle 2 • Para. 3: All members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered. • Para. 4: All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.

9. How Vulnerable Are We? • 7,500 miles of U.S. border • 96,000 miles of coast and navigable water • 351 commercial ports • 500 million people enter the US every year • Including 330 million non-U.S. citizens • 11.2 million trucks enter the US every year • 2.2 million rail cars enter the US every year • 7,500 foreign ships make 51,000 port calls in the US every year

10. A Typical Day for USCB • Processed • More than 1 million entrants (60% aliens) • 69,000 truck, rail and sea-borne containers • 333,000 POV • Executed 3,300 arrests • Seized • 5,400 pounds of narcotics • $77,000 in illicit or undeclared currency • $330,000 in fraudulent commercial merchandise

11. Transnational ThreatHuman Trafficking • Increases spread of disease • 1997 – 4 million annually • Trends • Large increase in US in past 10 years

12. Exotic Transnational Threats • May-June 2003, human monkeypox outbreak • Came from pet Prairie Dogs • Got it from Gabon Rats smuggled into US • Environmental Crime • Fastest growing OC activity • High cost of disposing of pollutants and chemicals • Dumping radioactive wastes growing • Exotic animals and animal parts

13. Ttransnational Infectious Disease Threat • ¼ of all disease is caused by environmental exposure that can be avoided • 33% of disease in children under 5 is linked to the environment • 3.5 Million deaths/year are from three diseases • Malaria • Lower respiratory infections • Diarrheal diseases • 20 known diseases - including a treatment resistant form of tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and cholera--have reemerged

14. Transnational Counterfeiting • A syrupy poison, diethylene glycol, is an indispensable part of the modern world, an industrial solvent and prime ingredient in some antifreeze • It has been loaded into all varieties of medicine — cough syrup, fever medication, injectable drugs — a result of counterfeiters who profit by substituting the sweet-tasting solvent for a safe, more expensive syrup, usually glycerin, commonly used in drugs, food, toothpaste and other products. • Thousands have died from this • three of the last four cases originated in China, a major source of counterfeit drugs.

15. Transnational Weapons Threats • WMD and Proliferation • E.g., Soviet Arms in the Ukraine • - left more than 2.5 M tons of conventional munitions – unsecured – unstable – 6M landmines • 68 tons transferred to Burkina Faso alone • 103 tons to Ivory Coast • 10,000 MANPADS unaccounted for from Crimean depot • NATO allocated $30M to dispose of this • At current rate, a 50-year project • Belarus • Sent more than $500M worth of Katyusha rockets to Iran, Syria, North Korea and the Sudan

16. The Transnational Cyber Threat:National Security Implications • Cyber Savvy Hired Guns to facilitate Terrorist/Hostile nation’s agenda • Using criminals to conduct: • Phishing • DDoS • Intrusions • Identity Theft • Other Crimes on their behalf • Virtual Reality

17. Questions For the Audience • When the UN Charter was written, threats to the national security were military and territorial in nature. • What defensive rights do nations possess with respect to activities that threaten to destabilize society – threats such as terrorism, international organized crime, genocide and environmental harms? • How does Westphalian sovereignty address these threats? • Are there circumstances in which borders should not be a barrier to meeting these threats?

18. International Terrorism Loosely Affiliated Extremists State Sponsored Formalized Groups

19. Al-Qa’ida maintains ability to inflict significant casualties inside the US with little warning. In 2003 they were negotiating for purchase of three Russian nuclear devices Putin says he can not account for all of Moscow’s 10,000 nuclear weapons Threat Assessment: The Threat Al-Qa’ida and its surrogates remain the top terrorist threat

20. Al-Qa’ida Operational Methods • Three styles of attack • A Team - most dedicated & disciplined • B Team – affiliated groups • C Team – sympathetic extremists • D Team – home grown extremists • Analysis of methodology may assist in detection

21. Al-Qa’ida • The “A” team – the “19 hijacker” model • Plot hatched overseas • Operating in US with external support • Highly disciplined & dedicated • Self contained team • Tight operational security

22. USS Cole Bombing October 12, 2000 Location: Aden, Yemen Killed: 17 Injured: 37

24. Al-Qa’ida • The “B” team – the “Bali Nightclub” model • Small teams • Sympathetic allies • Supported financially by al-Qa’ida • Probably training by al-Qa’ida

25. Bali, Indonesia 10/12/02 Car Bomb Hundreds killed and missing

26. Al-Qa’ida • The “C” team – the “shoe bomber” model • Individual • Recruited from radical Mosque, Community Center, or prison • Training Camp attendance on own initiative • Expendable • Test operation

27. Paris/Miami 12/23/01 Shoe Bomber

28. Likely Targets Highest priority targets most likely include: • White House, US Capitol, and other symbolic targets; • Commercial airliners, and railroads; • New York City landmarks; • CIA Headquarters; • Nuclear power plants, chemical facilities and oil and gas facilities; and Military facilities.

29. Likely Targets – contd. Soft Targets Soft targets typically include public facilities or civilian structures such as restaurants, nightclubs, schools, universities, health care facilities, shopping centers, amusement parks, tourist attractions, hotels, apartment buildings, sporting venues, water and energy-providing facilities, emergency services providers, churches, and other religious sites.

30. Increased Low-Tech Terrorism • Terrorist incidents up 7X since 2004 • Casualties up 40% from 2005 to 2006 • 91% increase in Middle East and South Asia • Some 5,000+ pro-al Qaeda Internet sites • Sleeper Cells

31. The “D” Team7/7/2005 British Train Bombing • 7 July 2005 • 3 bombs exploded in London underground train system within seconds of each other at 8:50 am • Bomb exploded on above ground bus approximately 1 hour later • More than 30 killed and 700 injured • Occurred on first day of G-8 Summit, which was being hosted by Great Britain, and one day after London was chosen to host 2012 Summer Olympics • Al-Qaeda elements

32. 7/21/2005 British Train Bombing • 21 July 2005 • Attempted to detonate 3 underground bombs and 1 above ground bomb in similar fashion to 7 July bombing • 5 suspects arrested in London and Rome

33. Sympathizers • Survey of 800,000 ethnic Pakistani Britons showed roughly 9,000 approved of these attacks • Former head of MI-5 said 1,600 actively plotting attacks • At least 200 “networks” based in Britain • Officially engages in racial and religious profiling

34. U.K. v. U.S. • FBI with 13,000 agents for 300M people is roughly comparable to MI-5’s 2,400 agents for 60M people • Do we have sleeper cells we haven’t found? • DNI McConnell, May 2007 said “We are actually missing a significant portion of what we should be getting.”

35. Challenges Facing CTD Operations • Volume of Incoming Threats • Demands of Major Investigations • Non-Stop Administrative Taskings • Lack of Tools to Manage Information • Is It Really Terrorism?

36. THE LONER • Oklahoma University Bombing • 1 October 2005 at approximately 8:00 pm • Joel Henry Hinrichs • Committed suicide by detonating explosives approximately 100 yards from Oklahoma University football stadium packed with more than 84,000 people • Explosive used was TATP (triacetone triperoxide) which was same explosive used by “Shoe Bomber” Richard Reid • No nexus to terrorism identified to date but investigated as terrorism until fully vetted

37. Transnational Organized Crime

38. Eurasian Organized Crime (EOC) Italian Organized Crime (IOC) Balkan Organized Crime (BOC)

39. ROC Russian Eurasian ORGANIZED CRIME 350 FBI Investigations in 35+ Field Divisions

40. 55% 16% EXTORTION DRUGS 16% FRAUD 22% 16% MURDER MONEY LAUNDERING Criminal Activities

41. ASIAN ORGANIZED CRIME • Chinese Triads. • Japanese Boryokudan (Yakuza). • Sophisticated International Syndicates (Vietnamese, Korean, Other Southeast Asian). • Heroin/Drug Trafficking • Illegal Alien Smuggling • Credit Card/Fraud Swindles

44. Italian Organized Crime • The Sicilian Mafia • The Neapolitan Camorra • The Calabrian ‘nDrangheta • The Puglian Sacra Corona Unita.

45. 2006 • Corrupt officials in Iraqi oil industry have been funding the insurgency • Six Balkan nations have formed a pact to fight OC and terrorism • They say the OC is funding terrorism in their region • UN officials have called for greater cooperation in fighting OC which, they say, fuels terrorism and destabilizes nations

46. International Working Groups and Task Forces • Southeast European Cooperative Initiative (SECI) • FBI / Russian MVD Joint Working Group • FBI / Hungarian National Police OC Task Force – Budapest, Hungary • Italian American Working Group • Pantheon Project • Central European Working Group

47. Law Enforcement Force Economic Persuasion Political Persuasion Diplomacy Domestic v. Int’l Law Jurisdiction Venue Access to Information Evidence Witnesses Extradition Remedies and Problems

48. Minimum Standards Transnational Investigatory capability Openness in Banking Crack-down on Money Laundering Tighter Control on Electronic Money Global Asset Forfeiture International Bank Regulation FUTURE NEEDS

49. What Skill Sets are Required? • Foreign Affairs • Intelligence Community • Information • Law Enforcement • Forensics • Interrogation • Other Governments • Financial Agencies • NGOs • Administrators

50. QUESTIONS?