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Phil Rees, University of Leeds

The ESPON 2013 Programme DEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities Applied Research Project 2013/1/3. Phil Rees, University of Leeds Presentation at the ESPON UK Network Workshop, Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy 1115-1515, 13 May 2009

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Phil Rees, University of Leeds

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  1. The ESPON 2013 ProgrammeDEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and citiesApplied Research Project 2013/1/3 Phil Rees, University of Leeds Presentation at the ESPON UK Network Workshop, Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy 1115-1515, 13 May 2009 MWB Business Exchange 10 Greycoat Place, London SW1 P 1SB

  2. The DEMIFER project team • NIDI (co-ordinator) (Netherlands) • Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper • UNVIE (Austria) • Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer • IOM/CEFMR (Poland) • Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska • Nordregio (Sweden) • Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket • University of Leeds (United Kingdom) • Phil Rees, John Stillwell, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett • NEAA (Netherlands) • Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer • CNR (Italy) • Frank Heins

  3. Aims of the project • to determine how distinctive are current trends in migration, fertility, and mortality and how they affect differences across regions in population growth, the size of the working age population and the ageing of the population. • to forecast how future developments in migration, fertility and mortality will affect population growth and changes in the age structure in different types of regions. • to analyse the extent to which the labour force in different types of regions will change due to increases in natural growth, internal migration, international migration and participation rates. • to evaluate which policy options could achieve increases in natural growth, migration and labour force participation. • to review the extent to which the effects of internal migration, migration between European countries and migration to Europe compensate or reinforce each other. • to assess the future effects of climate change on migration flows within, between and into countries and regions.

  4. Tasks • Assembly of a database • Analysis of demographic regimes • A summary typology • Three migration streams (internal, inter-state, extra-Europe) • Analysis of labour force participation and employment rates • Analysis of the older population • Projection of populations using a multiregional projection model • Reference scenarios • Policy scenarios • Assessment of impact of policy scenarios on regional competitiveness and regional cohesion • Case studies of processes in selected regions

  5. Demographic typology

  6. Projection model: migration structures

  7. MULTIPOLES projection model modules • Scenarios input indicators for fertility, mortality, internal migration, inter-country migration, extra-European immigration, extra-European emigration • Population projection engine for 31 countries and ~280 NUTS2 regions • Age groups extended to 100+ • Projected population by age and sex multiplied by labour force participation rates • Labour force multiplied by employment rates • Employed multiplied by productivity indicators

  8. Reference scenarios • Population base ~ 2005 with demographic rates/flows for period around 2005, e.g. 2003-7 • Three reference scenarios: • Status quo projection • No migration projection (natural increase only) • Free movement within Europe but no extra-Europe migration

  9. Policy Scenarios

  10. Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies

  11. Policy scenarios: ideas about levels and distributions

  12. Next steps • Full details of the topics covered in this presentation and future plans are given in the DEMIFER Interim Report • The Interim Report will be made available after scrutiny by the ESPON 2013 Monitoring Committee on the web site: http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/programme/1455/2233/2236/2241/index_EN.html

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