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Economic Costs of Sustaining Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin: Findings and Policy Implications

This session at the 2011 AWRA Annual Meeting addresses the economic challenges of ensuring sustainable water supplies in the Rio Grande Basin, focusing on adaptation strategies to droughts, floods, and climate change. Presenters discuss the Comprehensive Basin Analysis (CBA) as a tool for informing water policy, addressing the complexities of watershed processes, and highlighting the need for just and flexible water policies. The session emphasizes the importance of historical water use in shaping future water-sharing agreements, and the implications for agricultural and urban water management.

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Economic Costs of Sustaining Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin: Findings and Policy Implications

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  1. AWRA Annual Meeting: 2011 Albuquerque, NMSession: New Water Resources of NM and Obstacles to their Development 1:30 – 3:00 Monday, Nov 7 ”Economic Costs of Sustaining Water Supplies: Findings From the Rio Grande Basin” Frank A. WardNM State University College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences NM Water Resources Research Institute

  2. Ongoing Challenges in RG Basin • Adaptation to droughts, floods, climate change • Search for resilient water institutions where there are complex watershed processes and constraints • Agronomic • Hydrologic • Meteorologic • Economic • Political • Search for Just, Flexible, Open Water Policies • Understandable Science-informed policy

  3. Road Map • Describe Potential Benefits of Comprehensive Basin Analysis (CBA) • Brief history of Rio Grande Compact • Describe principles how CBA can inform sustainable water policies. • Show how CBA can inform water sharing debates • Illustrate the use of CBA for policy analysis: sustaining RG Basin’s aquifers/reservoirs • Conclusions

  4. Uses of Comprehensive Basin Scale Analysis (CBA) • CBA can provide data to inform debates on: • Adaptation to floods, drought, climate change • Ways to share transboundary waters • Irrigation water conservation subsidies • New knowledge or method (e.g., evaporation, ET) • Socially just, economically efficient, politically acceptable water infrastructure • Effective development planning • Cost effective Payment for Environmental Services

  5. Simple Graphics to inform complex watershed policy debates: Sankey Chart • Watersheds are scientifically complex • Policy debates add complexity • Few simple graphics can show the choices

  6. Water Balance: Rio Grande • Rio Grande from Colorado (USA) to US-Mexico border with supplies, gauged flows and depletions by location • Impacts of wet, normal, dry inflows • Must abide by existing water institutions • Rio Grande Compact • US Endangered Species Act • US Mexico Treaty of 1906 • New Mexico – Texas water sharing agreement (2008)

  7. Limits of Graphics, Need for Models • Economic and policy goals: sustainability, sustainable diversion reductions, resilient institutions, minimum econ losses from drought, flood, climate change • So we use mathematical models of hydrology, agronomy, economics, and institutions for RG Basin

  8. Water sharing arrangement hammered out for Rio Grande • 9 years debate, experiment, negotiation (29-38) • Signed in 1938 • Based on a creative combination of: • Observing historical use patterns • Mathematical formula for predicting historical use • Formula explained how historical use varied in wet v. dry years. • Formula was applied to share water for the future in wet and dry conditions.

  9. Rio Grande Compact (Approximate) Water Sharing Formula • CO agreed deliveries to NM (1000 af/yr) • NM agreed deliveries to TX (1000 af/yr)

  10. Role of CBA to Inform Water Policy Proposals • Historical outcomesby state, use, location, and period under actual water policies • Inflows: headwater supplies • Hydrologic: streamflows, reservoir levels • Agricultural: Irrigated land, farm income, yields, prodn, food self sufficiency • Urban: population, per capita use, price, supply reliability • Environmental: key ecological assets • Economic: Total economic benefits

  11. Role of CBA to Inform Water Policy Proposals • Historicaloutcomesby country, use, location, and period under potentialwater policy A • Inflows: headwater supplies • Hydrologic: streamflows, reservoir levels • Agricultural: Irrigated land, farm income, yields, prodn, food self sufficiency • Urban: population, per capita use, price, supply reliability • Environmental: key ecological assets • Economic: Total economic benefits

  12. Role of CBA to Inform Water Policy Proposals • Future outcomesby country, use, location, and period under actual water policies • Inflows: headwater supplies • Hydrologic: streamflows, reservoir levels • Agricultural: Irrigated land, farm income, yields, prodn, food self sufficiency • Urban: population, per capita use, price, supply reliability • Environmental: key ecological assets • Economic: Total economic benefits

  13. Role of CBA to Inform Water Policy Proposals • Futureoutcomesby country, use, location, and period under potential water policy A • Inflows: headwater supplies • Hydrologic: streamflows, reservoir levels • Agricultural: Irrigated land, farm income, yields, prodn, food self sufficiency • Urban: population, per capita use, price, supply reliability • Environmental: key ecological assets • Economic: Total economic benefits

  14. Use of a CBA • Impacts of alternative policy, supplies, or population by country, use, location, period. • Inflow differences: historic v potential • Hydrologic differences: historic v. potential • Agricultural differences: historic v. potential • Urban differences: historic v. potential • Environmental differences: historic v. potential • Economic differences: Benefits of new policy compared to historic policy. How these changes in benefits vary by alternative future supplies or future populations

  15. Example Structure of CBA: Rio Grande Basin: CO, NM, TX

  16. Objective

  17. Constraints • Irrigable land, Headwater supplies • Sustain key ecological assets • Hydrologic balance • Reservoir starting levels (sw, gw) • Reservoir sustainability constraints (sw, gw) • Institutional • Endangered Species Act • Rio Grande Compact (CO-NM; NM-TX) • US Mexico Treaty of 1906 • Rio Grande Project water sharing history (NM/TX)

  18. Ag water use

  19. Institutions: e.g. Rio Grande Compact

  20. Example Results: Rio Grande Basin • Policy 1 -- Sustain natural water capital over a 20 year period: aquifers to starting levels, no requirement for reservoirs • Policy 2 -- Increase natural water capital over a 20 year period: aquifers to starting levels, reservoirs to 90% of capacity

  21. Conclusions: Overcoming Obstacles to Sustaining NM’s Water Supplies • Information Needs • Economic value of water • Agriculture • Urban • Environment • Cost of Water Conservation • Irrigated agriculture – subsidies • Urban Use -- subsidies • Water pricing: farms, cities, environment

  22. Conclusions: Overcoming Obstacles to Sustaining NM’s Water Supplies • Needs for Policies/Institutions • Complete NM’s Stream Adjudications, Especially Middle and Lower Rio Grande • Build and use resilient institutions for adapting to drought, climate change

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