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Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California

Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California. Principal Investigators: Michael Hanemann, Linwood Pendleton , and David Layton

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Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California

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  1. Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution inSouthern California Principal Investigators: Michael Hanemann, Linwood Pendleton, and David Layton Participating Universities: University of California at Berkeley, University of Southern California, University of California at Davis

  2. Sponsoring Agencies: • Federal • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Damage Assessment and Special Programs) • Minerals Management Service • State • State Water Resources Control Board • California Department of Fish and Game (OSPR) • Regional • Santa Monica Bay Restoration Program • Southern California Coastal Water Research Program

  3. Research Goals:  Develop a Model of Beach Choice, incorporating: • Travel and Time Costs (and expenditures) • Beach Amenities • Water Quality • Substitution Possibilities (Time & Space)

  4. Research Goals: Determine the Economic Impact Due to: • Changes in Water Quality • Beach Postings • Beach Closures • (Amenity Management)

  5. Research Goals:  Measure Economic Impacts on: • The Well-being of Beach Goers • Local Expenditures

  6. The Essentials: • Beach Inventories • Screener Survey • Year Long Panel Survey • Year 1: Focus on beaches from San Onofre to County Line Beach • Year 2: Extend focus north to San Luis Obispo

  7. An Inventory of Beach Attributes: GIS

  8. Beaches Covered County Line  Santa Monica  Venice  Hermosa  Huntington  Newport  Laguna  San Onofre From Counties in Stage 1

  9. Beaches Covered San Simeon State  Pismo State  Goleta  Carpenteria City  La Conchita  Emma Woods State  Oxnard Shores  Thornhill Broome From Counties added in Stage 2

  10. An Inventory of Beach Attributes

  11. Stage 1: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside Stage 2: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside Ventura Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo Beach Goers Covered: Counties Surveyed

  12. Preliminary Results: Screener Survey

  13. Screener Survey: Other Results

  14. Preliminary Results: Panel Survey

  15. 45% went to beach less, 14% stopped going to HB

  16. Preliminary Results: • The State of California and the Regional Water Quality Board are currently investigating methods to clean up the coastal waters in Santa Monica Bay and Orange County. Under the new program, beaches might still be posted because of stormwater problems, but beach closings from sewer spills would be eliminated in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. • If the program is approved, it would be paid for by an annual sewer surcharge. The voters would have to approve such a surcharge. The sewer surcharge would cost a household like yours about $[X1] to $[X2] per year, depending on the final design of the system. If the cost was $[X] would you vote for the program?

  17. Results of the Willingness To Pay ?

  18. What The Model Will Do: • A Workable model that will predict and value • Beach Visitation • Economic Well-being • Expenditures

  19. For a variety of scenarios concerning changes in • Beach Amenities • Travel Costs • Water Quality • Beach Closures

  20. Uses of Interest to the Coastal Commission • Valuing Public vs. Private Access • Valuing Remoteness • Valuing Means of Access • Valuing Acquisition of New Public Beaches • Valuing Loss of Access • Valuing Beachside Development

  21. www.uscbeach.organdwww.uscfish.org

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