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Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113

Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses. RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER STATES: oil and patronage EXOGENOUS: Western (esp. United States) foreign policy. Economic Factors in the Arab World.

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Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113

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  1. Lecture 13GOVT S-1113

  2. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses • RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible • CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances • RENTIER STATES: oil and patronage • EXOGENOUS: Western (esp. United States) foreign policy

  3. Economic Factors in the Arab World • Income inequality in/across states • Low relative GDP growth • Low export penetration (except for oil)/isolation from global markets • Late/stalled development • High unemployment, esp. among young males

  4. Social Factors in the Arab World • High unemployment/social frustration and anomie • Insularity of region/Arabic as common language • Arab/Israeli conflict • Colonial legacies • Weak nationalism/alternative ties (pan-Arabism, tribal, ummat al-Islamiyah) • Corrupt/kleptocratic/personalistic elites • Demographics/gender disparities

  5. Potential Causes of Arab Spring: • Reneging on ruling bargains • Youth bulge • Escalating food costs (esp. post 2008) • Illegitimacy of leaders/lack of popular representation • Demonstration effects • Propitious circumstances • Social media

  6. Tahrir Square, Cairo (9 Feb 2011)

  7. Sanaa, Yemen Protests

  8. Sirte, Libya (Gaddafi loyalists shell rebels)

  9. What Does the Future Hold?Is Democracy Inevitable Everywhere?

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