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March 2011 Employment Situation Overview: Key Stats and Analysis

Explore the latest US employment data for March 2011, including unemployment rates, job creation trends, and their impact on politics and markets. Get insights on key economic indicators and learn about market considerations for the coming weeks.

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March 2011 Employment Situation Overview: Key Stats and Analysis

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  1. Employment Situation March 2011 Josh Lasker

  2. Overview • Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics • Next release= May 6th • Overall unemployment fell from 8.9% in February to 8.8% (for March) • Peaked at 10.1 in late ‘09 • A drop in unemployment despite a labor market participation rise • Unemployment=? • Not counted if you hadn’t searched for a job within 4 weeks proceeding survey • With an expanding labor market, a drop becomes even more significant

  3. Overview Continued • US Gov dropped 14,000 jobs in March • Private Sector gained 230,000 jobs • Versus last 3 month average of 188,000 • Important point: Gov jobs cost tax revenue, private sector jobs create it • Manufacturing jobs slowed to 17 thousand news jobs versus 32K in Feb • Average hourly earning for private nonfarm workers= $22.87/hr • Up by 1.7% since 1 year ago • Something to think about: 200,000 jobs per month=2019 when prerecession unemployment levels are reached

  4. Unemployment Rates by Worker Groups • Adult Men- 8.6% • Adult Women- 7.7% • Teenagers- 24.5% • Whites- 7.9% • Blacks- 15.5% • Hispanics- 11.3% • Asians- 7.1%

  5. Effects • Poilitics • Markets

  6. Politics • Democrats and stimulus • Republicans and $10 billion in cuts • Looking towards $50 billion more • What this means: • Momentum came after democrats pushed policy • If a slow down happens it will be after republicans enacted policy

  7. Markets • Actual versus perception • Actual: Would take 195K/month to keep up with growing workforce • Perception: Effects of news on market… • Could strengthen US dollar • Jobs data+spending data are used by Fed for stimulus policy • Other economies, ie: Japan+some European ones make US look relatively good.

  8. How to play in Market • Spots on forex • ETF on • long USD= UUP • Long the EUR short= EUO • Short JPY= JYF

  9. Sources • http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/print.pl/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm • http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/business/economy/02jobs.html?_r=1&ref=global • http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/business/02obama.html?ref=global&pagewanted=print • http://seekingalpha.com/article/261475-friday-s-jobs-report-and-its-effect-on-the-usd-key-market-considerations-for-the-coming-week

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