Is There a Future in Encore Careers?

1. Is There a Future in Encore Careers? Discovering What’s Next Lasell College Newton, Massachusetts Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Public Policy & Urban Affairs November 6, 2010

2. The Current Economy

3. The U.S. Labor Market – October 2010 • 14.8 million jobless • 9.6% Unemployment Rate • Adult Women: 8.1% • Adult Women: 9.7% • Asians: 7.1% • Whites: 8.8% • Hispanics: 12.6% • Blacks: 15.7% • Teenagers: 27.1% Source: BLS “Employment Situation Summary, November 5, 2010

4. Others in Trouble • Involuntary Part-Time: 9.2 million • Discouraged Workers: 2.5 million • TOTAL Unemployed, Involuntary Part-Time, or Discouraged: • 26.5 million

5. Massachusetts

6. U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate Forecast Percent Unemployed Seasonally Adjusted. Source: http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

7. A Fragile Economic Recovery… Monthly payroll employment change (excl. Census Jobs) Consistent monthly job growth of over 150K will be necessary to reduce unemployment

8. …As Fiscal Stimulus Fades Contribution to real GDP growth, % Cash for Clunkers Recovery Act Tax rebate checks Housing tax credit Source: Moody’s Analytics

9. After the Recovery The Labor Market over a Longer Horizon

10. Projected Job Growth in the United States: 2008-2018 (in thousands) Source: Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for 2008-2018

11. Social Sector Industry Job Growth Projections: 2008-2018 (in thousands) Private Sector

12. Government Sector 2008 2018 Change

13. Social Sector Job Growth for Some Encore Careers 2008-2018 (in thousands) Social Sector Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dukakis Center/BRA Labor Market Assessment Tool

14. WWII: A Far Different TimeRosie the Riveter • World War II might have turned out quite differently if it were not for Rosie the Riveter • With employers desperate to fill jobs, millions of women jointed the labor force using their considerable talent to staff the nation’s factories, America’s “arsenals of democracy”

15. From Unemployed Workers to Unfilled Jobs • With unemployment near 10 percent, it might appear far-fetched to suggest that we may need Rosie’s equivalent before the end of this decade • Yet, as the economy recovers, we will almost surely see spot shortages in key occupations – and soon after, the demand for workers could outstrip supply in a broad range of industries • We will need Rosie’s Equivalent later this decade

16. Demography is Destiny Jobs vs. Workers Encore Workers to the Rescue

18. Age 18-54: + 900,000 Age 55+: + 20,800,000

20. Potential Job Gap • At current labor force participation rates and a dearth of younger workers, there will be more than 15 million new jobs in 2018 but only about 9 million new workers • Nearly half of these unfilled jobs could be in the social sector • Only if the labor force participation of older workers increases will labor supply meet labor demand

21. Labor Force Participation Rates 2008 and 2018

22. Coaxing Older Folks to Work • Employers will need to redesign and restructure many jobs so they appeal to an older workforce • Need retraining for older workers • Need to create entirely new kinds of jobs • Adjunct teachers, mentors, tutors, content advisers, project coordinators • Community health workers, chronic illness coaches, medication coaches, patient advocates

23. Conclusion • Despite high unemployment, it is time to prepare for a future where we will need all the older workers we can find. • Let’s begin to figure out how to fill the jobs gap now … even when a jobs gap seems to be about as strange an outcome as one could imagine.