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Bradley Nickell Director of Transmission Planning

Bradley Nickell Director of Transmission Planning. Planning for Renewables Iowa State University WESEP-REU June 12, 2012. About WECC. WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient bulk electric system. Non-Planning Functions. Planning Functions.

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Bradley Nickell Director of Transmission Planning

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  1. Bradley NickellDirector of Transmission Planning Planning for Renewables Iowa State University WESEP-REU June 12, 2012

  2. About WECC WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient bulk electric system Non-Planning Functions Planning Functions Loads and Resources Assessments Reliability studies Transmission Expansion Planning • Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement • Standards Development • Reliability Coordination • Market-Operations interface • Operator training • WREGIS

  3. Regional Transmission Expansion PlanningHistory of Interconnection-wide planning in the West • Planning cooperation among Western Interconnection entities • Create economic planning data sets • Perform interconnection-wide transmission expansion studies • Process consistent with applicable FERC Order 890 planning principles • Governed by the WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC)

  4. Agenda • What are we planning for? • Resource Planning • Modeling Renewable Resources • Telling the story

  5. What are we planning for? • Identification of future infrastructure needs to • Serve the expected load reliably • Meet public policy directives • Minimize cost and environmental impact • Transmission planning – identify future transmission capacity needs given a future set of loads and resources • It’s all about resource planning

  6. 2013 10- and 20-year Transmission PlansConnecting the Dots How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate changes in the supply and demand for electric energy? • 10-year – understanding impacts of near-term decisions (bottoms-up) • 20-year – understanding drivers of potential energy futures (top-down) • The Plans tell the story of how they are connected Understanding Impacts of decisions, not making determinations on what should be done

  7. Transmission Expansion Planning Process

  8. 2022 TEPPC Common Case – Resource Assumptions

  9. Developing Resource Assumptions • Gather load assumptions • Identify state renewable energy requirements • Specify the renewable portfolio • Update conventional resources • Identify conventional resource retirements • Check the load and resource balance

  10. RPS Policies www.dsireusa.org / May 2012 ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017 VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017 WA: 15% x 2020* MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020) MT: 15% x 2015 NH: 23.8% x 2025 MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020(+1% annually thereafter) MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015* ND: 10% x 2015 OR: 25% x 2025(large utilities)* 5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities) SD: 10% x 2015 WI: Varies by utility; ~10% x 2015 statewide RI: 16% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015 CO: 30% by 2020(IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* CT: 27% x 2020 NV: 25% x 2025* OH: 25% x 2025† IA: 105 MW PA: ~18% x 2021† IL: 25% x 2025 WV: 25% x 2025*† NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021 + 5,316 GWh solar x 2026 IN: 10% x 2025† CA: 33% x 2020 KS: 20% x 2020 UT: 20% by 2025* VA: 15% x 2025* MO: 15% x 2021 MD: 20% x 2022 AZ: 15% x 2025 OK: 15% x 2015 NC: 12.5% x 2021(IOUs) 10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis) DE: 25% x 2026* NM: 20% x 2020(IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops) DC DC: 20% x 2020 PR: 20% x 2035 TX: 5,880 MW x 2015 HI: 40% x 2030 29 states + DC and PR have an RPS (8 states have goals) Renewable portfolio standard Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement * Renewable portfolio goal Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables † Solar water heating eligible Includes non-renewable alternative resources

  11. Overarching RPS Assumptions • RPS percentages with a discrete jump (e.g., 15% to 20%) are pro rated using a linear path • Utah sets a 2025 target without interim requirements • Linear path sets target at 16% in 2022 • Set-asides are met • Distributed generation (AZ: 30% of RPS, CO: 3% of retail sales, NM: 3% of RPS) • Solar (NV: 1.32% of retail sales, NM: 4% of sales) • Credits are applied to applicable resources • CO grants 125% credit to instate generation • Multipliers (CO: community based projects, NV: solar PV, WA: distributed generation)

  12. WECC 2022 Common Case Portfolio

  13. Production Cost Modeling • WECC’s studies are run using Promod, which is a production costing model (PCM) for projecting future system operating costs • WECC inputs into the PCM a transmission network, using a WECC power flow base case, and a single resource scenario • the PCM uses these model inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each of 8,760 hours in the year

  14. Production Cost Modeling • PCM uses the following inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each hour of the year: • Generator Unit Characteristics: unit types, heat rates, fuel types, forced outage rates, minimum downtimes, etc. • Load Characteristics: chronological load shapes, etc. • Transmission Network Characteristics: network topology, branch/transformer impedances, flow limits, etc. • System Operating Requirements: operating reserve requirements, etc.

  15. PCM Modeling Inputs forVariable (Wind and Solar) Generation • Wind/solar are fixed shape (non-dispatchable) resources • NREL meso-scale data • Hourly generation profiles have been defined for all wind/solar plants in our dataset • Result: Wind and solar generation does not vary unless there is local transmission congestion preventing the resources from being used by the system

  16. Wind and Solar Profile Examples • Synchronized hourly profiles (wind & solar) • Planned VG additions based on extensive data research and stakeholder input • Energy is must-take

  17. Reference Case Wind Generation

  18. Sample Load/Generation Profile – AZNMNV Sub-region

  19. Sample Load/Generation Profile – NWPP Sub-region

  20. 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan

  21. What’s in a PlanTypes of Recommendations? Expected Future – “The road we’re on” • Analysis of assumptions • Is there sufficient transmission capacity? • Unanswered questions Identification of Alternatives • Alternative procurement options to meet policy directives at less cost Other Insights • Identification of follow-up studies • Suggestions for addressing unanswered questions • Public policy

  22. Questions Bradley Nickell Director of Transmission Planning Western Electricity Coordinating Council155 North 400 West Salt Lake City, Utah 84103 801.819.7604 bnickell@wecc.biz All information on the WECC 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan may be found at http://www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan.

  23. Flexibility Reserves • E3 and NREL developed calculation methodology • Reserve based on 10 minute wind and solar profiles • Provides an uncertainty factor extended to hourly analysis • E3 calculated the hourly flexibility reserves for the TEPPC wind and solar profiles “Additional reserves required to manage the variability and uncertainty associated with variable generation resources like wind and solar” (NREL)

  24. Flexibility Reserve Flow Diagram

  25. Composite Hourly Reserve Requirement Reserve requirement 1-day

  26. Test Results for August 25 - 26

  27. Example of Hourly Reserve Requirement

  28. Long-term Planning Tool The LTPT is a GIS-based capital expansion planning tool for use in doing long-term transmission planning studies • Optimizes new generation and transmission build out • Incorporates reliability, policy, environmental, and cost considerations Current Status • Integrated testing continues • Last minute data submittals being incorporated into the model • Will begin production studies in June Information from the LTPT complements results provided by the production cost model

  29. LTPT Process Flow Criteria Data Optimize Generation Optimize Transmission Analytics Assertions Load Identify High Value Projects Environmental Considerations Generation Operating Characteristics Alternative Candidates Measure Impacts Policy Consideration Transmission Capital Costs Alternative Candidates Compare Energy Futures Social Considerations Capital Costs Energy Constraints Capital Costs Screen Alternatives Cultural Considerations Geospatial Capacity Constraints GridConstraints Inform Other Planning Federal & State Mandates Stakeholder Collaboration Tiered Optimization ExpansionPlan Inform Decision Makers Public policy along with reliability, technology, and environmental considerations drive the LTPT

  30. LTPT Renewable Resource HubsLeveraging the WREZ Hubs

  31. Water Availability and UsageWater Availability Example

  32. Environmental DataBringing land-use into planning processes • Develop and incorporate information on land, wildlife, cultural, historical, archaeological, and water resources into the transmission planning process Data being integrated into the LTPT

  33. Detailed Examination of Expansion Alternatives - “Bending the Lines” Optimal Corridor Using ROW and Road Alignments Optimal Cross-Country Corridor

  34. RTEP Long-term Planning Scenarios Technology Economy The Long-term Planning Tool will be used to analyze the long-term scenarios

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