Syria's Agriculture & WTO Accession: Gains, Risks & Implications

1. The Contribution of Agriculture to the Economic Reforms of SyriaNAPCMinistry of Agriculture and Agrarian reformAgriculture-related WTO Agreements: Opportunities and Challenges Nasredin Hag Elamin FAO Regional Office for the Near East, Cairo

2. Requirement and Implications of Accession Policy - Rights Framework - Obligations Outcome - Potential gains - Potential risks Most risks are certain, but attaining gains requires a lot of effort in terms of negotiating capacity and enhanced supply-side capacities

3. What does WTO offer? • Access to a more transparent and predictable trading system • Exporters receive MFN treatment in markets abroad • A major improvement for those who face sanctions or unfair treatment in world markets • Access to WTO’s dispute settlement process • Opportunity to ‘bind’ tariff commitments so as to avoid future policy back-sliding Potential gains: All of these reduce business uncertainty, encourage investment, increase exports and ultimately raise incomes

4. Risks • Reduced policy space to design domestic priorities • Some of the emerging and growing sectors/sub-sectors may prematurely be exposed to unnecessary, and possibly unfair, external competition

5. WTO Provision on Accession Article XII of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO deals with accession. It reads as follows: “Any State or separate customs territory possessing full autonomy in the conduct of its external commercial relations and of the other matters provided for in this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreements may accede to this Agreement, on terms to be agreed between it and the WTO. Such accession shall apply to this Agreement and the Multilateral Trade Agreements annexed thereto.”

6. WTO Provision on Accession Thus, Article XII gives no guidance on: o the “terms to be agreed”, these being left to negotiations between the WTO Members and the applicant; or o the procedures to be used for negotiating these terms, these being left to individual Working Parties to agree.

7. The Negotiation Drives WTO members ask for concessions from applicants o .. “accession of new members should strengthen the system rather than weaken it”.. e.g. they ask for “meaningful market-access commitments". o "WTO-plus" obligations Applicants, on the other hand, look for flexibility - e.g. market access commitments appropriate to the level of economic development of the Applicant"

8. WTO Agreements of direct relevance to agriculture • Agreement on Agriculture • Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) • Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) • Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) • Ministerial Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries

9. Agreement on Agriculture The three main provisions of the AoA aim at: • improving market access • reducing domestic support • reducing export subsidies

10. SPS Agreement • Basic right: the right to take SPS measures necessary for the protection of human, animal or plant life or health • Obligation: ensure that any SPS measure is applied only to the extent necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health based on scientific principles • Key provisions: • Scientific Justification (risk assessment) • Harmonization (CODEX, IPPC, OIE) • Equivalence

11. Experience with Implementation • High compliance with the AoA • Support to agriculture in the developed countries remains high (above 1986-88 levels) • No clear improvement in border protection (with a few exceptions) • Little reduction in export subsidies • Developing countries face some difficulties in implementing their commitments

12. Main features of commitments made by Near East countries on AoA • Tariffs: • Relatively high bound tariffs • Significant overhangs • No access to SSGs (apart from 2 countries); TRQs (only 2 countries) • Domestic support • Sufficient flexibility: GB, Article 6.2 and de-minimis • Sector-wide support is important (irrigation, fuel, transport) and much of it has not been reported in base years • No export subsidies

14. Major issues raised by developing countries • Imbalance in commitments between the developed and developing countries • The need for additional flexibility: Improving agriculture development and food security requires domestic policy flexibility • The need to operationalise the Marrakesh Decision on LDCs and NFIDCs • Capacity building: need for assistance

15. Key Concerns of the NE Countries • Food imports (managing food imports) • Access to the developed country markets, particularly the EU

16. Experience of the Recently Acceded Members (RAM) – major Concerns • RAMs made more concessions compared with countries that joined before 1995 • Some countries could not get some of the essential special and differential treatments for developing countries • Complications with the new Doha negotiations

17. The Experience of RAMs – Some cases of success • Some countries succeeded in achieving some additional special treatment: • e.g. flexibility in terms of base period (Nepal and Taiwan) • Seasonal tariffs for horticultural crops, e.g. Jordan • Some countries bound a number of specific or compound rates (Bulgaria, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Georgia and Croatia ) • Longer implementation period (China)

19. AOA Commitments made by RAMs

20. What if Syria is treated, on average, liker other RAMs? • Domestic support – sufficient flexibility • Green Box measures • De minimis (10%) • Article 6.2 • Support to inputs • Support to agricultural credit and investment • Total AMS • Market access – tighter commitments • Binding tariffs at their applied levels • But, Syria may consider asking for: • Seasonal tariffs for some products • Access to special safeguards • Export subsidies • Possible access to the SDT for subsidising marketing and freight of agric exports

21. Lessons • Special and differential treatment for developing countries is not automatic and the acceding country has to ask for it • Countries should avoid making any statement or commitment that prohibits any form of a measure other than those implied in the basic rules • Logical justifications, existing legislations and programmes and proof of information and their sources are always critical in obtaining the required treatment • Use of new forms of alternative trade measures, e.g. seasonal tariffs

22. Recommendations • Effective participation in the negotiations • Continue to strengthen analytical capacity and access to information • Conduct impact studies • Develop negotiating strategy and fall-back positions • Raising awareness and involving all stakeholders in the process • Strengthening negotiating skill and tactics • Taking advantage of existing and new trading opportunities • Raising quality standards (regardless of WTO) • Focusing in on products for which opportunities are relatively high, e.g. olive oil, sheep meat, fruit and vegetables

23. Preparing for WTO negotiations: a typical case of a developing country Developing negotiating position Government Ministries • Government Ministries • Representatives of farmers and traders Consultation • Government • Research institutions Analysis

24. Preparing for WTO negotiations: a case of a successful developing country Government Ministries Farmers, Traders, backed by universities and research inst. Developing negotiating position • Government Ministries • Faculties of Agric. • Farmer and Traders • NGOs Consultation • Universities Lead by Faculty of Agriculture • Research institutions • NGOs • Government Ministry Analysis

25. Thank you!

26. SPS/TBT – barriers to exports • Widespread evidence of SPS barriers to exports, and that incidence of these barriers is increasing over time • SPS standards becoming increasingly complex, products treated inconsistently in different markets • Lack of resources and technical expertise a problem for many developing countries to meet SPS standards • Private sector standards

27. Reginal Trade Agreements The commitments made by individual countries in the context of the WTO limit the scope for deepening and expanding RTAs in the region

28. Lessons • S & D treatment is not automatic and the acceding country has to ask for it • Countries should avoid making any statement or commitment that prohibits any form of a measure other than those implied in the basic rules • Logical justifications, existing legislations and programmes and proof of information and their sources are always critical in obtaining the required treatment • Use of new forms of measures: seasonal tariffs (e.g. for horticultural products) example

29. Need for Trade Policy Data and Analysis Accession to the WTO • Preparing schedules of commitments • Assessing impacts of accession on the economy - impact on agriculture, trade, food security and welfare • Analyzing alternative policy scenarios to cope with WTO requirements both in the short and long terms: • Maintaining the necessary domestic policy flexibility • Safeguarding the economy from world market hazards and unfair trade practices