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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market. Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105 www.lmci.state.tx.us www.texaswages.com www.texasindustryprofiles.com. May 2010 Texas Manufacturing Outlook.

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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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  1. The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105 www.lmci.state.tx.us www.texaswages.com www.texasindustryprofiles.com

  2. May 2010 Texas Manufacturing Outlook

  3. Lloyd Potter, State Demographer Texas State Data Center

  4. Texas Labor Market Statistics (s.a.)

  5. Payroll Wages: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly • 91 industries paid $124.3 billion in payroll wages in the 4th QTR 2009 • 37 industries grew payroll wages, adding net $3.03 billion • 54 industries dropped payroll, falling by a net -$6.22 billion • Between 4th QTR 2008 & 2009 there was a net decline in payroll of -$3.19 billion • -$3.19 billion translates into 64,904 jobs

  6. Texas Industries Adding Payroll Wages 2008-2009

  7. Texas Industries Losing Payroll Wages 2008-2009

  8. Texas Industry Job Growth from Jan 2009 to 2010

  9. Texas Industry Job Decline from Jan 2009 to 2010

  10. Unemployed Persons Per Job Posting Aug 2007 = 1.43 Mar 2010 = 4.02

  11. Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region

  12. Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2016

  13. Fastest Growing Texas Occupations -- Bachelors Plus

  14. Fastest Growing Texas Occupations -- Associates/Cert

  15. Educational Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Postings 49.3% 78.6%

  16. YUM Brands34.5% (50.1%) Ford 30.4% (53.1%) Boeing 34.3% (40.8%) Intel58.8% (84.3%) Coca Cola61.0% (73.8%) Corning (70.7%) Emerson Electric40% (51.6%) Accenture(60.5%) Microsoft(38.7%) IBM57.9% (57.9%) Motorola 52.5% (49.4%) JNJ38.2% (47.1%) John Deere25.1% (34.6%) Colgate69.4% (80.3%) Nike50.3% (62.6%) Campbell Soup (31.0%) Molson Coors (55.4%) 3M Corporation (61.4) Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:Percent of 2000 & 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.

  17. U.S. jobs as a percent of all MNC jobs

  18. 87.5 68.1 72.3

  19. Employer Hiring Progression 1. Work existing workers more hours 2. Move part-timers to full-time, recall workers 3. Embrace technology for labor substitution 4. Employ temporary, leased or contract workers for fixed periods 5. Reconsider work/hiring physical location 6. Outsource all non-core business functions 7. Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales, limit labor liability 8. Take advantage of foreign labor (H1B, L1 visas) 9. Add full-time domestic employees (FTE) What happens when employers don’t make it to the stage of adding FTEs?

  20. Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic

  21. Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor 1. An uneven recovery is underway, but not for every person or business sector. Texas better than most, but not immune from the same forces 2. Political uncertainty is inhibiting consumer spending & business investment e.g. healthcare, cap & trade, taxes, stimulus 3. Manufacturing will continue to shed net jobs: Expect less job sustainability after inventory adjustment cycle 4. Credit is still a problem. TX banks do better. Who wants a loan? Who qualifies under these conditions? 5. Real estate problems not over. Texas better than most. Watch commercial real estate loan defaults

  22. Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor 7. Job losses slowed but expect weak new hire activity despite the economic recovery. Texas will likely be last in and among the first out. 8. Lower property tax revenues & declining sales taxes will affect state & local government budgets and job growth. Expect public sector layoffs. 9. Ripple effects of slower retail sales, less construction will impact the service sector. Health care, education, government jobs will do better than most. 10. Strong U.S. dollar compared to € Euro could dampen U.S. exports. Doubly bad for Texas as #1 export state.

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