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The Last Month and Election day

The Last Month and Election day. 3/21/2013. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election

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The Last Month and Election day

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  1. The Last Month and Election day 3/21/2013

  2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process • Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election • Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

  3. Office Hours • Today 11-2 • Friday 11-1 • Monday 10-2

  4. The Three Periods of the Campaign • The Summer • The Conventions to the First Debate • The Final Month

  5. The Final Month

  6. Obama is up 4% on October 1st, and about to hit 50%

  7. Debates

  8. Presidential Debates • A Recent Phenomenon • General Strategies • Do not screw up

  9. Presidential Debates • Who Wins (the leader in the polls), Win by not losing • The Person who doesn’t make a mistake • Does it matter?

  10. The Result of the First Debate • Obama is expected to win easily • Obama falls into the incumbent trap • Romney has a low bar

  11. The Results of the First Debate • 3-1 Obama loses to Romney • This kept the results close to election Day

  12. The Other Debates • Both on Foreign policy • No major game changers • Much lower viewership

  13. Did the Debates Matter • Obama’s poor performance was not enough • The Race tightened, but less in the swing states • Obama was leading going in, and still won

  14. Early Voting

  15. Early Voting • 32 Million voted early • 26% of the Electorate • Up from 2004, but down from 2008

  16. Who Voted Early? • Democrats more than Republicans • Obama is up in NC, Iowa, NV, FL and CO • Romney would have to win 60% or more

  17. Why is early voting important • It Negates last minute surges or stumbles • Campaign Messages fall on deaf ears

  18. Late Breaking News

  19. Economic Growth

  20. Unemployment

  21. Hurricane Sandy • October 29th • Pushed Romney off the Stage • Obama as Comforter-in-Chief

  22. Election Day

  23. Voter Turnout Went Down

  24. A Shrinking margin of Victory • Obama’s margin shrank from 2008 by 2% • Only 1.3% higher than Bush’s Re-election

  25. The Electoral College

  26. The Electoral College Results • The National Popular vote remains irrelevant • 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal

  27. Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College • Race for Electoral Votes • Not a race for Popular votes • Draw the map and stick to it

  28. Resource Allocation • Time and Money are best spent where they will give you a R.O.I. • Many states do not see the candidates • Only 10 states in 2012 were battleground

  29. The minimum winning coalition • 270 is all that is necessary • 11 states can give you 271 • This puts the emphasis on big states • Can you win or will you win? • Remember opportunity costs regarding $ and time.

  30. The Basic Strategy • Win your state and Your v-p’s state • Do not spend time where you will win • Do not spend time where you will lose • Electoral Votes, matter nothing else does

  31. The Current Map Favored the Democrats

  32. Obama had an EC Advantage

  33. Vote By Region

  34. In the Toss-up States • Obama wins 8 of 9 tossups • Most by more than 3 points.

  35. At the County Level

  36. Gains and Losses

  37. Why romney lost

  38. Why Romney Lost: Bad data analysis • Misreading the Electorate • It was 2008, not 2004 or 2010 • To much reliance on national Polls

  39. Why Romney Lost: Bad Management • The Orca system • Good Fundraising, with Poor spending • Poor Image creation

  40. Why Romney Lost: The Obama Attack Machine Going In Coming Out Rich White Guy Mormon Out of Touch • Rich White Guy • Mormon • Out of touch

  41. This was all personal: that Romney is a vulture capitalist who doesn’t care about people like you, ships jobs overseas, is a quintessential plutocrat, and is married to a known equestrian.”

  42. “One reason the GOP didn’t do better with its pro-growth agenda was that Mr. Romney’s character and record were undermined by early, relentless personal attacks that went largely unanswered,”

  43. Why Obama Won

  44. Obama is holding a better hand President Obama Governor Romney

  45. Why Obama Won- Being President • He wasn’t necessarily well-liked, but nor was he hated • Of last 10 up for Reelection, Obama ranked 7th. (5-1) • He had the trappings of office (11-1 record)

  46. Why Obama Won- The Economy • No President has been elected with such high unemployment • No President since FDR had been reelected, with such low GDP growth. It was worse than Carter.

  47. The Economy • Inherited Problems • Better in the battleground states • Good new right before the election

  48. Who Obama Won: The Economy • With Better Economic numbers, Romney had nothing else • Romney had a 1% edge on managing the economy • Voters gave Obama an Incomplete

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