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A Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework (PATFrame) for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: A Collaboration Between MIT, U

Massachusetts Institute of Technology . A Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework (PATFrame) for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: A Collaboration Between MIT, USC, UT Arlington and Softstar Systems. Dr. Ricardo Valerdi Massachusetts Institute of Technology March 10 ,2010. Outline.

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A Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework (PATFrame) for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: A Collaboration Between MIT, U

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  1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology A Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework (PATFrame) for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: A Collaboration Between MIT, USC, UT Arlington and Softstar Systems Dr. Ricardo Valerdi Massachusetts Institute of Technology March 10 ,2010

  2. Outline • The Challenge • PATFrame team • PATFrame objectives & scope • PATFrame features • Next steps “Anything that gives us new knowledge gives us an opportunity to be more rational” - Herb Simon

  3. Sponsors Transition Partners

  4. PATFrame kickoff meeting Fort Hood, TX - Aug 2009

  5. The Challenge: Science Fiction to Reality “You will be trying to apply international law written for the Second World War to Star Trek technology.” Singer, P. W., Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century (Penguin, 2009)

  6. PATFrame Objective To provide a decision support tool encompassing a prescriptive and adaptive framework for UAS SoS Testing • PATFrame will be implemented using a software dashboard that will enable improved decision making for the UAS T&E community • Focused on addressing BAA topics TTE-6 Prescribed System of Systems Environments and MA-6 Adaptive Architectural Frameworks • Three University team (MIT-USC-UTA) draws from experts in test & evaluation, decision theory, systems engineering, software architectures, robotics and modeling http://mit.edu/patframe

  7. Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework Test Strategy/ Test Infrastructure Prescriptive Adaptive System under test

  8. Time Scale for Testing Decisions PATFrame Scope Test Development (i.e., design for testability) Long Term Planning Decisions/ investments Test Planning (in SoS environment) Data Collection, analysis & reprioritization Test Execution (real time) Days Months Hours Minutes Years

  9. Net-centricity of the environment net-centric focus Testing a system in a SoS environment Difficulty SoS Testing a SoS in SoS environment Ultimate Goal DARPA Urban Grand Challenge Use case (UAS in SoS) UAST focus PATFrame Initial Focus: Testing Autonomous System in SoS environment Complexity of the system under test none Human SoS S AI Autonomy of system under test Testing SoS

  10. Normative Prescriptive “Successful SoS Test” = f(metricA, metricB, etc.) (MetricA) limit Descriptive Normative (best) Descriptive (SoP) Descriptive (actual) Potential (new test A) test A contribution to state of the practice “success” … … MetricA MetricB MetricC MetricN Prescribed System of Systems Environment Goal: Synthetic framework for SoS testing at single and multi-program level Goal: Construct Theoretical Best “SoS” Test Metric set, “best” levels Metrics, state of the practice levels Goal: Capture Actual SoS Test Actual SoS tests include metricA’, metricC, etc.

  11. Integrated Test Management

  12. Real Options as Prescriptive and Adaptive Framework for SoS Testing • Use case: • Question: what to test? (i.e. what SoS test scenarios to prescribe?) • Inputs: models of autonomous/net-centric system of systems, major uncertainties • Outputs: enablers and types of real options for responding to uncertainties as candidate test scenarios (i.e. identification of how SoS can adapt) Identification of Real Options: Objective: Maintain Vehicle1Vehicle2 comm. Uncertainty: proximity of vehicles 1 and 2 1. Real option to adjust comm. range using flexible range comm. systems on vehicles1, 2 2. Real option to use Vehicle3 as relay Joint/ SoS Model: coupled dependency structure matrix Vehicle1 (Army) Ontology Vehicle2 (Navy) 3 2 Uncertainties Vehicle3 (Air Force) 1 Mission objectives

  13. Testing to Reduce SoS Risks vs. the Risks of Performing Tests on an SoS

  14. Example PATFrame Tool Concept Question: When am I Done testing? Technology: Defect estimation model Trade Quality for Delivery Schedule Inputs: Defects discovered Outputs: Defects remaining, cost to quit, cost to continue 14

  15. When am I done testing?

  16. PATFrame Knowledge Base Analysis Techniques Primary Inputs to PATFrame Primary Outputs for Test and Evaluation Models of the system under test • How should my test • strategy change? Reasoning Engine Model of the SoS environment • What realizable options • are available? Mission needs/goals Plan Ontology • Which test do I run • and in what order? Test Requirements Analyze and Design Execute • When am I done • Testing? • Available resources • and time Evaluate Risk & Uncertainty Analysis (leading indicators) Process Analysis (System Dynamics)

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