Presentation Transcript

1. Invited PresentationWorld Forum on Shooting Activities

   Gary Mauser Professor emeritus

2. Would banning firearms reduce murder and suicide?

   A review of international evidence

3. Harvard Journal of Law and Public PolicySpring 2007Vol 30 (2)

   Don B. Kates Gary A. Mauser
4. Don B. Kates American Criminologist Professor of law (ret.) Pacific Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA Gary A. Mauser Canadian criminologist Professor emeritus Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC, Canada
5. Claim The United States has the industrialized world’s highest murder rate because of high availability of guns Facts Russia has a much higher murder rate In general, higher gun ownership rates are associated with lower homicide rates (both internationally and intra-nationally)
6. Comparing homicide rates:United States and Russia(per 100,000 people)
7. Claim Europe has low murder rates because of stringent gun control Facts Europe had low murder rates before gun controls introduced in twentieth century Research does not support effectiveness of stringent gun controls
8. Notes, Tables 1 – 2 Tables 1 - 2 cover all the Continental European nations for which the two data sets given are both available. In every case we have given the homicide data for 2003 or the closest year thereto because that is the year of the publication from which the gun ownership data are taken. That publication is the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2003 (Oxford U. Press 2003) at pp. 64 and 65, tables The homicide rate data come from the pamphlets JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years 2001-04.
9. Table 1 Gun ownership and murder rates
10. Table 1 (cont’d) Gun ownership and murder rates
11. Banning handguns Restricting access to handguns does not correlate with lower murder rates Countries that ban handguns typically have higher murder rates than neighboring countries
12. Table 2 Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
13. Table 2 cont’d Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
14. Explanatory Note to Table 3 It bears emphasis that the following data come from a special U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 1 and 2 because they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources.
15. Do ordinary people murder? Table 3 shows European countries with descending order of murder rate No apparent correlation between murder and civilian firearms ownership
16. Table 3 - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
17. Table 3 (cont’d) - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
18. Is the United States uniquely violent? Table 4 shows countries in descending order of combined murder and suicide rates The United States does not have the highest intentional death rate. It falls midway in this collection
19. Table 4 – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
20. Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
21. Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
22. Notes, Table 4 1. Based in general on U.N. Demographic Yearbook (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?" Medical Sentinel v. 5 (# 6 2000) 199-201. It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994. 2. The Swiss homicide figure Stolinsky, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268.
23. More guns, more death? Does access to firearms by civilians increase murder rates and suicide rates? No apparent correlation between total intentional death rate and civilian firearms ownership
24. Table 5 European Gun/Handgun Violent Death
25. Notes, Table 5 1. As to derivation of the homicide rates see Table 1, note 1. The data on household firearms ownership come from British Home Office figures printed in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) pp. 30 and 275.
26. Table 6 European Firearms-Violent Deaths
27. Table 6 (cont’d) European Firearms-Violent Deaths
28. Banning guns does not reduce murder rates
29. Irish murder incidents before and after 1972 handgun ban
30. Jamaican murder rates before and after 1976 firearm ban
31. Explanatory Notes for Subsequent Chart Recently published data confirm earlier analyses by Kates-Mauser that firearms ownership and homicide rates are not positively correlated internationally Civilian firearms ownership (shown by red line) increase from left to right. Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide, 2011 Homicide rates (shown by vertical blue bars) from the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2007 In general, nations with higher gun ownership rates (found at right) are associated with lower homicide rates
32. Homicide rates and firearms ownership in Europe
33. Caveat The Kates-Mauser study is based on the best available data Murder and suicide rates are government sources Firearms ownership rates provided by United Nations or the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, Swiss Small Arms Survey Nevertheless, errors abide in available data E.g., Swiss Small Arms Survey estimates combine civilian and criminal firearms
34. Conclusions and recommendations Available data does not support link between civilian firearms ownership and murder or suicide rates Available data does not support effectiveness of stringent firearms laws in reducing murder or suicide rates Better estimates of civilian firearms ownership should be collected It is imperative that policy makers be exposed to more accurate research on civilian firearms