Direction on Guidelines Savings Definition Path: CONTINUED

1. Direction on Guidelines Savings Definition Path: CONTINUED Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Measure Interaction Regional Technical Forum February 19, 2014

2. January RTF MeetingPresentation • Decision made on • Current Practice Baseline • Pre-Conditions Baseline • Decision to postpone to February the discussion of RUL and Measure Life • Members asked to send alternate language, or concerns to staff.

3. Input Received Since January Meeting • From Staff • Edited “vote” on Measure Interactions • Now “General Population Characteristics” a “Yes****” for Lifetime Savings and First-year Savings. (previously a “No”) • If program participants match general population • Modified Proposed Motion Language • From Others • … (Ex: Option 3+) +: Remember that “Option 3”, which was approved late last year, was a method to prorate “last measure in” savings to avoid under-counting (or over-counting) total savings.

4. Measure Interactions

5. Measure Interactions Proposal: “To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps. When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data expected by the RTF to represent program participants during the sunset period. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. Data collected directly from a sample of recent program participants is likely to serve these needs if the characteristics of the program participants are not expected to be changing quickly. For measures where interactive measures are not expected to be installed simultaneously, general population characteristics or characteristics of eligible sites may be judged to sufficiently represent program participants. The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”

6. “Significant” • “Interaction is significant if the RTF determines that it is likely to account for more than 10%* of the measure savings. ” • What tools would the RTF like to use to determine “significance”? • What is the appropriate level of effort? * Staff has interpreted this to mean +/- 10% (not +/- 5%).

7. Proposed Significance Test Procedure • Identify Measure • Identify all possible Interactive Measures • Define the proposed expected conditions for each interactive measure, estimate savings. • Example: General Population Characteristics, if available (and characteristics of subset of eligible sites, if available). • The expected conditions for interactive measures are constant across the Baseline and Efficient-case Conditions. • Determine conditions for each interactive measure where Measure savings differ by +/- 10% from savings calculated using proposed expected conditions (“Book-ends”) • RTF judges whether measure interaction is expected to be significant and whether candidate proxy is reasonable. • To help, we’ll look at distribution of existing conditions (RBSA), technically feasible minimums and maximums, etc.

8. Measure Interaction Decision Choices • Interaction is not significant (Proven) • Include interactive measure as a measure identifier (Proven) • Use available data (Proven) • Program Data, if representative • General Population Characteristics Data, if representative • Other Data, if representative • Collect data (Planning or Provisional)

9. Example 1 • Measure • Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve, Retail Delivery +/- 10% Book-ends Source: RBSA “+/- 10% Book-end”:Condition of the interactive measurewhich cause measure(i.e. TSRV) savings to vary by + or – 10% from the measure savings calculated using the “expected condition” of the interactive measure.

10. Example 1 – Interactive Measure Decisions Measure Decision Choice Decision Notes 1. Savings interaction with showerhead is No Not true. not significant 2. Include showerhead flow rate as a Maybe Would be difficult for programs to pull of with a retail delivery measure identifier 3.I. Use available representative program No N o data available Shower - data head representative of 3.II. Use RBSA data as Maybe May not be representative of program. Small gap between green bars. program - Measure could be packaged with low flow showerhead, or - Program might be designed to target high flow showerheads 4. Collect showerhead flow rate data on Maybe Good savings reliability, but program would need to be designed in a a sample of measure installations way to allow contact with participants – difficult with retail delivery 1. Savings interaction with water heater No Not true. type is not significant 2. Include water heater type as a Maybe Would be difficult for programs to pull off with a retail delivery measure identifier Electric Water 3.I. Use available representative program No N o data available Heater data Type 3.II. Use RBSA data as representative of Yes Because of tiny fraction of HPWH in Region, RBSA water heater mix program likely to represent program. 4. Collect water heater type data on a Maybe Good savings reliability, but program would need to be designed in a sample of measure installations way to allow contact with participants – difficult with retail delivery GFX … … …

11. Source: RBSA Example 2 RBSA Measure: Attic Insulation – R-0 to R-38 • “Back of the Envelope” • 1344 ft2 prototype, Portland Weather RBSA RBSA RBSA RBSA

12. Level of Effort: Huge! (if no data)Weatherization Example • Analyze Each Measure (33 iterations) • For each heating system: Heat Pump, eFAF, Zonal • Attic: R0-38, R11-38, R19-38 • Floors: R0-30, R11-R30 • Windows: Double-0.30, Single-0.30, 0.35-0.30 • Walls, Duct Sealing, CC&S, Infiltration • In each heating zone? (99 iterations) • Analysis and Decisions will need automation Because of the difficulty for programs, the RTF may not want to deal with significant measure interaction through further disaggregation of measures (i.e. more measure identifiers). Instead, it may wish to consider use of RBSA data (choice 3.II) or program data collection (choice 4) for weatherization measures.

13. DecisionMeasure Interactions “I ________ move to adopt the following guidelines language: To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps. When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data expected by the RTF to represent program participants during the sunset period. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. Data collected directly from a sample of recent program participants is likely to serve these needs if the characteristics of the program participants are not expected to be changing quickly. For measures where interactive measures are not expected to be installed simultaneously, general population characteristics or characteristics of eligible sites may be judged to sufficiently represent program participants. The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”

14. Remaining Useful Life (RUL)

15. RUL • Proposal: • For all pre-conditions measures, estimate RUL based on best available information. If RUL is likely longer than the 20 year planning horizon, then RUL equals measure lifetime.

16. UES Example: Grocery ECMs for Display Cases (Replace existing Shaded Pole Motor with new ECM) Future Current Practice? Proposed Measure Life = Remaining life of existing Shaded Pole Motor Today Measure Life = Life of new ECM (RUL = EUL) Note: The issue of forecasting the future current practice (at time = RUL) will be discussed later, after the RTF decides on RUL. Note: 6-year estimate of remaining life of existing shaded pole motor is for illustration only.

17. UES Example: Attic Insulation R11-R38(Add insulation to an existing attic with R11, go to R38) = Today Measure Life = Life of insulation (RUL = EUL) Proposed Measure Life = Remaining life of existing R11

18. Standard Protocol - Discussion • Two Optional Paths, depending on measure • “Deem” an RUL for all installations • Similar to UES • Cannot “deem” the same RUL for all installations • Similar to Custom – See next slides.

19. Custom Measure Example: Chiller Early Replacement Proposed Measure Life = Remaining life of existing chiller Today Measure Life = Life of new ECM (RUL = EUL) Note: 3-year estimate of remaining life of existing chiller is for illustration only.

20. Custom Measure Issue: RUL is unknown and the fate of the measure depends on its value • If RUL is big enough for cost-effective measure… • If RUL estimate too short, measure not cost-effective…

21. DecisionRemaining Useful Life “I _______ move to adopt the following guidelines language: • For all pre-conditions measures, estimate RUL based on best available information. If RUL is likely longer than the 20 year planning horizon, then RUL equals measure lifetime.”

23. (Old) DecisionMeasure Interactions “I ________ move to adopt the following guidelines language: • To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps. • When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data from a representative sample of recent program participants. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. • If collection of recent program participant data is not practical, and a reasonable proxy for participant data is available, measure savings should be estimated using this proxy. • The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”