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Climate Projections and Surprises

This document explores the concept of abrupt climate changes, which occur when the climate system is forced to cross certain thresholds, leading to significant transitions. It emphasizes the importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a key factor in understanding these changes. The notes highlight the need to recognize potential climate surprises and their implications. Students are prepared for an upcoming exam, with references to essential readings and the potential for abrupt shifts in oceanic circulation that could drastically affect weather patterns globally.

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Climate Projections and Surprises

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  1. Climate Projections and Surprises • Current Weather • Abrupt Climate Changes • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation • Other Examples • Day After Tomorrow Exam 4 on Friday! Final Exam on May 7. For Next Class: Read Ch. 14

  2. Abrupt Climate Changes • Theory, models, and paleoclimatic reconstructions have shown that changes in the climate system can be abrupt and widespread. • Abrupt climate change: “. . . occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state . . .” (Alley et al. 2002) • “Climate surprises” often used to refer to these abrupt transitions

  3. Responses of a Climate Variable to Forcing

  4. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation • Best-documented type of abrupt climate change in paleoclimatic archives is associated with changes in oceanic circulation, especially in the North Atlantic • Also referred to as “Thermohaline Circulation”.

  5. Colder, Saltier Water Sinks in North Atlantic, driving the Thermohaline Circulation

  6. http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=83339&tid=3622&cid=10046

  7. Abrupt Climate Change Site from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute • http://www.whoi.edu/main/topic/abrupt-climate-change

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