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Measures of Non-Traditional Media Consumption During the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Measures of Non-Traditional Media Consumption During the 2008 Presidential Campaign. MAPOR, Chicago 1:30pm – 3:00pm, November 21, 2009 Authors: J. Michael Dennis, Knowledge Networks Trevor Tompson, The Associated Press Mike Henderson, Harvard University Yelena Kruse, Knowledge Networks.

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Measures of Non-Traditional Media Consumption During the 2008 Presidential Campaign

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  1. Measures of Non-Traditional Media Consumption During the 2008 Presidential Campaign MAPOR, Chicago 1:30pm – 3:00pm, November 21, 2009 Authors: J. Michael Dennis, Knowledge Networks Trevor Tompson, The Associated Press Mike Henderson, Harvard University Yelena Kruse, Knowledge Networks

  2. Research Questions • Who are the consumers of non-traditional media during the 2008 general election? • What were their candidate preferences? • Who did they vote for? • Also: Who are the online donors to campaigns?

  3. Data Source: AP-Yahoo! Longitudinal Election Panel • Field period: Nov. 2007 to Dec. 2008 – 11-wave longitudinal design • Wave1 baseline obtained 2,735 interviews Compressed schedule: ~ 4 weeks between waves Wave 7 field period 9/5 to 10/12/08 – source of independent var data 1,086 respondents completed all 11 waves Sample Source: KnowledgePanel

  4. Data Collected in the Month After Labor Day • Independent variable: Self-reported usage of Internet in the last month to do any of these 12 things: • Read political news stories from a news website • Visited candidates web sites • Participated in message boards, chat rooms, or discussion groups about politics • Gotten information about candidates issue positions • Gotten information about when or where to vote • Contributed money to a candidate or political cause • Looked for more information about candidates positions on the issues • Found out how the candidates were doing in public opinion polls • Checked the accuracy of claims made by or about the candidates • Watched video clips of a candidates television ads • Emailed an election official • Received email about a political candidate

  5. Data Sources • Respondents grouped according to number of self-reported uses of the net for politics/election in last month: “Net Haters” 0 types used n=914 or 48% “Net Friendly” 1 to 4 types used n=662 or 34% “Net Hypers” 5 or more types used n=347 or 18%

  6. Use of Nontraditional Media Related to… • Measured in the weeks after 2008 Labor Day: • Candidate Preference • Certainty of Candidate Preference • Party ID • Political ideology • Age • Pet ownership! • Measured immediately after the election: • Presidential vote choice

  7. Results Data from Post Labor Day Wave 7 Survey Field Period 9/5/08 to 10/12/2008 Most Interviews Obtained between 9/5 and 9/12 All data are weighted using poststratification weights

  8. Candidate Preference – Or Lack Thereof • 22% of Obama supporters are Net Hypers compared to gen pop percentage of 18%; Undecideds mostly Net Haters – only one in 20 • chi-square p-value < .01

  9. Certainty of Candidate Preference • Net Hypers slightly more likely to be certain to vote for their favorite candidate – consistent with expectation that Net Hypers are engaged in politics – however, many still persuadable voters! • chi-square p-value < .05

  10. Party ID: Giving New Meaning to “Net Neutrality” • Dems and Rep equally likely to be Net Hypers; undecideds less likely to be such • chi-square p-value < .01

  11. Party ID: Similar Online Donation Rates • About one in 10 Dems and Reps gave online in past year – about the same

  12. Political Ideology: A Result! • Most powerful result in the analyses: 42% of “Extreme Liberals” are Net Hypers! • “Extreme Conservatives” also more likely to be Net Hypers, compared to gen pop mean of 18% • chi-square p-value < .01

  13. “Liberals” Donated More Frequently Online • Extreme liberals almost three times more likely to report donating online in past year. Moderates hardly do so at all. • chi-square p-value < .01

  14. Age…Surprisingly Not a Factor • For all the talk about young adults being turned on by the web….not a strong measured impact • chi-square p-value > .1

  15. And Pet Ownership Doesn’t Matter Either! • So much for pet-based political segmentations! • chi-square p-value > .1

  16. Results: Actual Vote Choice Measured on the Same Sample in the week after the General Election

  17. Obama Wins (Again): VOTE by Net Type • Obama voters significantly more likely to be Net Hypers – slightly stronger effect than seen in October candidate preference measure • chi-square p-value < 0.1

  18. More Obama Voters Donated Online • 11% of Obama voters donated online, as measured in the Sept-Oct 2008 wave -- slightly more likely to have donated online • chi-square p-value < 0.1

  19. Final Thoughts

  20. Insights • Hyper Net users, as consumers of nontraditional media, represent a significant segment of the electorate • Supporters of both parties report similar levels of use of nontraditional media and online donation • Extreme liberals and conservative both report high levels of use of nontraditional media, with liberals actively donating money online • Undecideds during the campaign and nonvoters less likely to use nontraditional media • Obama turned-out voters slightly more likely to be Net Hypers and online donors, consistent with popular wisdom of his campaign

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