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Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden

2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans. Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden. Science Advisory Committee 21 November 2005 Huntsville, AL. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans. Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat Analysis of 1-3 May 2004 Florida WRF 2 km simulations

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Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden

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  1. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden Science Advisory Committee 21 November 2005 Huntsville, AL

  2. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat • Analysis of 1-3 May 2004 Florida WRF 2 km simulations • Analysis of 22 April 2005 Alabama event with OU 2 km WRF • Complete 10 December 2004 Alabama Case study • Complete P. Gatlin M.S. thesis • Develop AWIPS lightning threat product and assessment (LMA+NLDN) • North Alabama WES Cases • Develop more extensive training case for other WFOs based on the 6 May 2003 outbreak • Quantitative analysis of archived WES severe event cases • NCEP SPC 2006 Spring Program participation/collaboration • Pending LMA Extensions, Proposals • DC LMA Demo- NWS OST, Eastern Region • MRC Miss.LMA network- NASA Applied Sciences • NCAR Autonowcaster/4DWX at RTTC (LMA + ARMOR)

  3. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcasts (0-1 h) • Development of CI assessment survey for April 2006 assessment • Continue to (automatically) provide 30-min CI fields to NWS via AWIPS • Provide second/third NWS training for these fields in 2006 • Pending Satellite-based Lightning Initiation (LI; 30-min–2 h) Nowcasts • Begin LI nowcasts data transfer in early 2006; technique development completed • UAH Graduate student involvement with NWS Huntsville • Development of LI assessment survey • GLM R3 • Collaboration with NSSTC Team • Collaboration with ORA Coop Inst. (CIRA, CIMMS, CICS) • Lightning Data Assimilation • NASA NRC Post-Doc proposal pending (Themis Chronis/UCONN)

  4. 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans • Marine and Coastal Weather Assessments • Value of supplemental WRF forecast products (QPF, T, q) on coastal weather forecasts • Assess value of real time AMSR-E to monitor off-shore convective systems • Meetings • AMS Annual Meeting 29 January, Atlanta, GA • NPOESS Training Development Workshop, May 2006 • Southern Thunder Alliance Meeting, July 2006 Cocoa Beach

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