1. Modeling the Cyclical Nature of HRD Practices through Economic Development www.sageperformance.com/drjeffallen/downloads.htm Jeff M. Allen Kim Nimon Susan Frear

2. Theory Building

3. The Academy • In the mid ’90s, in the US … Evaluation was THE topic. • In the mid ’90s, in China…. Needs Assessment

4. 1997 AHRD Conference

5. The Economics 1999 1992 1982

6. The Economics Prosperity Expansion Contraction Expansion Growth/Decline Time

7. The Economics Learning Needs Assessment Evaluation Expansion Growth/Decline Time

8. Why not then?

9. 1997 • Our research field was beginning to mature. • Journals were not available. • We did not have appropriate data mining tools available. • Economic data inaccessible.

10. Why now?

11. 2007 (ten years later) • Mature Research Field • Meta-analysis capability due to depth and breadth of research • Economic information readily available • We have the computing horse power!

12. Preliminary Investigation

13. Goals • Determine how HRD activities may shift in emphases (in response or in support) of economic cycles • Investigate the benefits of building an HRD model based on forward-looking business data • Outline issues and next steps to validate the model Is there a relationship between economic job employment trend data and the workplace evaluation practices of HRD practitioners?

14. ASTD State of Industry Report (Bassi & Van Buren, 1998; Sugrue & Kim, 2004) Is there a relationship between economic job employment trend data and the workplace evaluation practices of HRD practitioners?

15. Economic Data (U. S. Department of Labor, 2006) Is there a relationship between economic job employment trend data and the workplace evaluation practices of HRD practitioners?

16. Preliminary Data Analysis • Results from the multiple regression did not show a statistically significant relationship between unemployment rate and evaluation methods usage. • However, the lack of statistical significance is largely a factor of the sample size used for this exploratory study. (Cohen, 1998). • The effect size resulting from the multiple regression indicates a practically significant relationship(R2= .976). The adjusted R2(.878) indicates some sampling error and a small change in effect size when considering replicability.

17. Multiple Regression • Level 4 usage provides the highest squared structure coefficient, accounting for 39.44% of the regression effect. • Level 3 usage has the second highest squared structure coefficient, accounting for 36.48% of the variance in predicted unemployment rate. • Overall, 87.8% of the variance is accounted for in the regression effect.

18. Kim Nimon Susan Frear The distance between theory and practice is always so much smaller in theory than in practice.

19. Questions for Exploration • How might this prediction be useful to researchers and practitioners? • What models should be considered? (i.e., HRD wheel, HPT model, ADDIE model) • Are there economic predictors beyond changing employment, interest rates, and industrial productivity that should be considered? • Can this research be conducted across industries? Would it be better to conduct this analysis specific to industry segments?

20. Questions for Exploration • What about geographical considerations? • Where might we find twenty years of retrospective data concerning HRD activities? • US companies • International companies • Should consideration be made of launching a specific longitudinal study for this research question? • What would be the qualifications for an organization to participate in the study?

21. Learning or Performance? Prosperity Learning Needs Assessment Expansion Evaluation Contraction Expansion Expansion Growth/Decline Time

22. Modeling the Cyclical Nature of HRD Practices through Economic Development www.sageperformance.com/drjeffallen/downloads.htm Jeff M. Allen Kim Nimon Susan Frear