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A Probability Rule-of-Thumb

A Probability Rule-of-Thumb. Cause of Death Data. Cause of Death Data (cont.). Cause of Death Data (cont.). Cause of Death Data (cont.).

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A Probability Rule-of-Thumb

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  1. A Probability Rule-of-Thumb

  2. Cause of Death Data

  3. Cause of Death Data (cont.)

  4. Cause of Death Data (cont.)

  5. Cause of Death Data (cont.) • Lifetime risk is calculated by dividing 2003 population (290,850,005) by the number of deaths, divided by 77.6, the life expectancy of a person born in 2003. • http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/attacks/relarisklifetime.html

  6. Data Analysis D: number of people who die each year from a given cause P: total population L: life expectancy

  7. Formulas • Standard form = 1/[(1-D/P)^L] • Quick form = P/D/L • Is quick form okay as it is?

  8. Excel Spreadsheet • Explore Excel spreadsheets 1-7

  9. Results • Does P/D/L = 1/((1-D/P)^L) ? • Does P/D/L + 0.5 ≈1/((1-D/P)^L) ? • Other thoughts?

  10. Websites http://divisbyzero.com/2011/09/14/a-neat-probability-rule-of-thumb/ http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/attacks/relarisklifetime.html

  11. References • Richeson, D. (2011, September 14). A neat probability rule of thumb. Retrieved October 17, 2011, from Divisbyzero.com: http://divisbyzero.com/2011/09/14/a-neat-probability-rule-of-thumb/ • (2010). In J. M. Shaughnessy, B. Chance, & H. Kranendonk, Focus in High School Mathematics: Resoning and Sense Making: Statistics and Probability (pp. 7-23). Reston, VA: National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. • University of Florida. (n.d.). Ichthyology. Retrieved October 17, 2011, from Florida Museum of Natural History: http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/attacks/relarisklifetime.html

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