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Advancements in Real-Time Seismology: Earthquake Early Warning Systems and Their Impact

This piece explores the advancements in real-time seismology, highlighting key studies and events such as the Northridge earthquake in 1994 and the Tohoku earthquake in 2011. It discusses how earthquake location and magnitude are determined, the role of seismic stations in issuing early warnings, and the communication methods used to inform the public. The trade-offs between speed and accuracy in early warning systems are examined, alongside significant improvements in earthquake preparedness and response in Japan.

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Advancements in Real-Time Seismology: Earthquake Early Warning Systems and Their Impact

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  1. Real-time Seismology Masumi Yamada Kyoto University

  2. 17 years ago Jim Mori

  3. 1994 Northridge EQ 0min 14min 24min Earthquake Location of aftershocks determined (Mainshock was assumed to be the same place) Magnitude estimated as 6-7 Jim Mori

  4. 4 months ago

  5. 2011 Tohoku EQ 0sec 19sec 27sec 3min 3.5min Earthquake P-wave detected Location and Magnitude determined Earthquake Early Warning issued Observed Seismic Intensity reported Tsunami Warning issued

  6. Shaking arrival Tsunami arrival Tsunami hight 10sec 29min 34min 55min Mainichi.jp

  7. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs

  8. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

  9. San Francisco Los Anageles Seismic Stations Wald(2005)

  10. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

  11. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer communication

  12. TV radio cell phone sensor Japan Meteorological Agency town speaker sensor provider sensor train <1sec factory

  13. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer communication

  14. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer communication seismology

  15. Kanamori (2005)

  16. Trade-off: Speed vs Accuracy Kanamori (2005)

  17. 8 warnings for M6-7 earthquakes in 3 years M Obs. Pred. May 8, 2008 7.2 6 +6 - July 8, 2008 6.1 5 - 5 - July 24, 2008 6.8 5 - 6 - Sep. 11, 2008 7.1 5 + 5 - Aug. 11, 2009 6.5 5 + 6 - Oct. 30, 2009 6.8 5 - 4 Feb. 27, 2010 7.2 6 - 5 - Mar. 14, 2010 6.7 5 - 5 - …but 10 times more after March 11, 2011.

  18. How to Receive EEW ?

  19. Cell phone TV Radio Announce Town speaker Unknown 64% 13% 4 1 1 Tohoku earthquake March 11, 2011 17%

  20. “Earthquake occurred off Fukushima. Prepare for strong shaking.” (Japan Meteorological Agency)

  21. Galapagos phone • NTT NO • Au OK • Softbank NO • (iphone) vs • NTT OK • Au OK • Softbank NO Smart phone

  22. with EEW 47% 47% of cell phone can receive EEW no EEW 53% JMA website, September 2010

  23. How to Use EEW ?

  24. 27 bullet trains were stopped without derailments. - March 11, 2011

  25. 64000 elevators stopped and 78 instances of people trapped. - July 23, 2005

  26. OKI SEMICONDUCTOR • Sanriku EQ • US $15 million loss • 2005 Miyagi EQ • US $200k loss $600k invested in EEW and structural improvements

  27. Future Goal

  28. Nature.com

  29. Human Seismometer iSeismometer Tsunami Warning Your idea

  30. Thank you for your attention. “Real-time Seismology” Masumi Yamada @Kyoto Univ.

  31. JMA website Improve Location Estimation 3/11 M9 3/12 M6 Good! Bad…

  32. Real-time Seismology

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