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Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain

Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain. Japan’s Power Shift and Economic Regionalism in the New Millennium. Hiroyuki Hoshiro Institute of Social Science, TOKYO University. Outline. 1 Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community” 2 Japan’s EPA Policy: Current States

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Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain

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  1. Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain Japan’s Power Shift and Economic Regionalism in the New Millennium Hiroyuki Hoshiro Institute of Social Science, TOKYO University

  2. Outline • 1 Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community” • 2 Japan’s EPA Policy: Current States • 3 Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism • Business • Agriculture • Organized Labor • 4 Japan’s government Change and Three Societal Actors • 5 (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation

  3. Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community” • Japan’s Government Change • LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) →DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) in August 2009 • New Prime Minister Hatoyama’s Two Pet Foreign Policies • Equal Japan-US Relationship • Building an “East Asian Community” • → No Substantial Progress: Why?? • East Asian Community = EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) • East Asia = ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, NZ)

  4. Japan’s EPA: Current States

  5. Japan’s EPA: some evidences • Thailand’s and India’s demand • “to allow nurses and careworkers to work in Japan” • →No agreements made • No mentions with “East Asian Community” in Naoto Kan’s policy speech in January 2011

  6. Previous studies • What are important factors promote/prevent economic regionalismin East Asia? • Domino (Baldwin) • Norm, Idea (Acharya) • Power Relations (Galia) • →Domestic Interest Groups • Land, capital, and lobor

  7. Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Firms-- • Export Industries →In favor of Free Trade • Nippon Keidanren (1300 leading firms & 130 major industrial organizations) supports EPA with East Asia • Domestic Industries → • Japan Textile Federation (JTF)→Supports EPA • Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry(small and medium firms) also supports • “Big Business Chance”

  8. Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Agriculture and Labor-- • Well-organized Japanese agriculture groups→Strongly Oppose to Tree Trade • Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA)→ Oppose, and/ or request “exceptional measure”--excluding rice, starch, and diary products from agreements– • Organized labor → oppose to EPA (mobilizing foreign workers) • Rengo (biggest labor union)

  9. Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Labor Union CON EPA PRO

  10. Japan’s government Change and Tree Societal Actors MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) LDP’s zoku (influential Diet members) JA • So called “agricultural policy triangle” • Government Change in 2009 Destroyed this triangle?? • →NO

  11. Agriculture and DPJ

  12. Agriculture and DPJ • Some agricultural groups (e.g. In Aomori, Nagano, and Saga) changed support from LDP to DPJ • DPJ’s policy proposal on the “creation of Individual (household) income support for agriculture system” • DPJ’s Manifesto in 2009 “measures (to promote the conclusion of EPAs) will not include any which are detrimental to the safety and stable supply of food, increasing Japan’s food self-sufficiency ration, and the development of Japan’s agricultural industry and its farming villages” (This sentence did not exist in the 2005 Manifesto)

  13. Agriculture and LDP/DPJ Farmers LDP DPJ CON EPA PRO

  14. Organized Labor and DPJ

  15. Organized Labor and DPJ

  16. Organized Labor and LDP/DPJ LDP Labor Union DPJ CON EPA PRO

  17. Business Groupsand LDP/DPJ DPJ’s policy to “ban political donations by corporations and other organizations” in order to “end public distrust of politics” (2009 Manifesto)

  18. Business Groupsand LDP/DPJ

  19. Business Groupsand LDP/DPJ LDP Big Business, Medium and Small Firms DPJ CON EPA PRO

  20. Three Societal Interests and LDP over EPA Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms LDP Labor Union CON EPA PRO

  21. Three Societal Interests and DPJ over EPA Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms DPJ Labor Union CON EPA PRO

  22. (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation • Economic Regionalism will not be progressed under the DPJ government • No support from Business (in favor of EPA) • Support from Agriculture and Labor (oppose to EPA) • →No strong Force to pursue EPA, “in vain” • Earthquake…… • Next step is to trace the process of policy-making and negotiations

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