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Willem Rienks – Alterra Wageningen UR Dublin, July 2007 Wageningen UR MNP- LEI – Alterra - SIL

The EU dimension beyond 2013 Eururalis 2.0 Insight in the future Trends, challenges and options for EU rural areas. Willem Rienks – Alterra Wageningen UR Dublin, July 2007 Wageningen UR MNP- LEI – Alterra - SIL. Objectives of Eururalis.

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Willem Rienks – Alterra Wageningen UR Dublin, July 2007 Wageningen UR MNP- LEI – Alterra - SIL

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  1. The EU dimension beyond 2013Eururalis 2.0Insight in the futureTrends, challenges and options forEU rural areas Willem Rienks – Alterra Wageningen UR Dublin, July 2007 Wageningen UR MNP- LEI – Alterra - SIL

  2. Objectives of Eururalis • Investigate possible developments of European rural areas • European focus, including global context • Spatially explicit, years 2010 – 2020 – 2030 • Presented by an interactive CD • … in order to stimulate the strategic discussion on the future of Europe’s rural areas

  3. Eururalis – discussion support • Four narratives: world views play out differently • Policy options lead to scenario-dependent consequences (CAP, biofuels) • Wide range of indicators (people-planet-profit) • Multi-scale approach: global context via countries & regions

  4. Competitiveness Market regulation No CAP Security Legal liability CAP: no change

  5. Implemented policy options • CAP 1 –market support 100% - 50% - 0% of current budget • CAP 2 –income support 150% - 100% - 50% - 0% • Ambition on biofuels Low/0 – medium/5.75 – high/11.5%

  6. Assumptions storylines

  7. Today: focus on land-use • Role of farming in GDP declines • Role for land-use remains strong • >40% of land remains agriculture in all scenarios • High impact on carbon, erosion, biodiversity, nutrients, landscape

  8. Agricultural abandonment • Main land use change next 30 years • Stable food consumption <-> technology improvement • Large regional differences • Policy impact is strong (CAP, biofuels)

  9. Regional differences: abandonment & intensification 1. Urban pressure 2. Marginalization

  10. For a lot of regions, policy matters % abandoned agricultural land 2030 Continental Markets Current CAP and LFA Global Economy No CAP and LFA

  11. Policy matters: Biofuel cropland 2030 (GE) Low ambition High ambition

  12. Global Economy

  13. Global Economy high biofuels ambition (11%)

  14. Bio-energy • Allocation • Logistic • Technology • Scale • Main arable regions • Ireland – 2% • EU27 – 6%

  15. Not to forget: pressure on land in Latin-America

  16. Impact of CAP – income support regional communities scenario

  17. Impact of CAP – market support regional communities scenario

  18. Urbanisation area • Population growth • Migration (from rural to urban and from abroad to urban) • More m2 per person • What about land prices?

  19. Conclusions towards 2030 • Abandonment is main landuse change in EU27 ánd Ireland • EU strategic policy does matter • Urban pressure high: land prices? • What to do with abandonned land? How to steer? • Adaptation to climate change, extensification, biodiversity, landscape, …

  20. Thank you for your attention Contributions of LEI, Alterra, SIL-Wageningen UR and MNP Willem.rienks@wur.nl www.eururalis.eu

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