Global Geopolitics and International Conflict

1. Global Geopolitics and International Conflict Alejandres Gannon

2. Video of the Day

3. War – what is it good for? • Not all nuclear wars are created equal • Escalation potential and population density

4. Nuclear Chemistry Section Uno (One)

5. The Effects of a Nuclear Explosion 1 kt device 13 kt device (Hiroshima) 1 mt device = 1,000 tons of TNT = 13 X 1,000 tons of TNT = 1,000 X 1,000 tons of TNT

6. http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

7. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb • Acquire fissile material • Enrich or produce the fissile material • Assemble the bomb • Option upgrade: fusion • Mount bomb on delivery vehicle

8. 1. Acquire Fissile Material • Plutonium • Doesn’t exist in large quantities naturally, must be produced in a nuclear reactor by Uranium 238 • Uranium • Occurs naturally as mixture of U-235 (weapons grade) and U-238 (not weapons trade)

9. 2. Enrich or produce fissile material • Plutonium • Pu-239 is easily fissionable • Pu-240 is not • Uranium • Enrichment – increasing the proportion of U235 to higher than 90% • U235 is called HEU (weapons grade) • U238 is called LEU (nuclear reactor grade)

11. Types of Nuclear Reactions • Fission weapons • First type of nuclear weapon • Assembled using plutonium (Pu-239) or enriched uranium (U-235) • Gun assembly – fissile uranium fired at fissile uranium target to split the uranium atom • Implosion – fissile material surrounded by high explosives that compress the mass • Limited in size and hard to assemble larger ones • Fission-fusion weapons • Requires fission to trigger the fusion • Fuse two hydrogen isotopes (deuterium and tritium) • Much larger explosion and variable-yield

12. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb Uranium Plutonium Fission: Gun Method Implosion (Up to 500kt) Fusion: H-bomb (“Thermonuclear”) (Up to 100mt)

13. Nuclear Physics Section Dos (Two)

14. 3 Types of delivery systems • 1. Gravity bombs • Delivered by planes/bombers • Very large and heavy, limited accuracy • 2. Ballistic missiles (strategic nuclear weapons) • Carried by a missile using a ballistic trajectory • Exit the earth’s atmosphere • Largest range weapons • 3. Cruise missiles (tactical nuclear weapons) • Fly at low altitude using GPS • Shorter range but difficult to detect early • Have flight maneuverability

15. Gravity bombs • B1, B2, B52 • 66 B52s (20 SNWs) • 95 B1s (24 TNWs or 8 SNWs) • 12 B2s (16 TNWs) • Recallable and flexible • Slowest • Forward deployable

16. Ballistic Missiles • Launched from land (ICBM) or sea (SLBM) • Flight path • Boost phase – 3-5min phase going towards the atmosphere • Midcourse phase – 25min phase in spaceflight • Reentry phase – 2min phase as it reenters the earth’s atmosphere above the target • MIRV – multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles

17. Ballistic Missiles First stage boost motor Second stage boost motor Third state boost motor Post-Boost vehicle separates from rocket Preparation for re-entry vehicle deployment Deployment of re-entry vehicles Re-entry into the atmosphere Boom

18. Ballistic Missiles

19. Causes of War Section Tres (Three)

20. A) General • Why do conflicts turn into war? • Conflicts over interest vs conflict of ideas

21. B) Conflicts Over Interests • Territorial disputes • Historically important • Strong norm exists today about the sanctity of borders • Means current territorial disputes are deadly • West Bank, Gaza Strip, Golan Heights, Kashmir, Spratley Islands

22. B) Conflicts Over Interests • Government disputes • Control the leadership of various countries • Soviet Union (Czech 1968, Afghanistan 1979), United States (Grenada 1983, Iraq 2003, Syria 2013) • Economic conflict • Economic transition affect balance of power but rare • Military leverage not effective in economic conflicts

23. C) Conflicts Over Ideas • Ethnic conflicts • Ethnocentric origins • Ethnic group may want own state or to join neighboring state or have no home • Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, etc

24. C) Conflicts Over Ideas • Religious conflicts • Fundamentalist movements challenge secular political organizations • Difficult to de-escalate • Compromise unlikely • Ideological conflicts • Affects revolutions that are destabilizing because sudden change • Easier to mobilize domestic support

25. Nuclear Deterrence Section Cuatro (Four)

26. Deterrence • A situation in which the threat of force is used to prevent a state from engaging in behaviour that it threatens to undertake

27. Compellance • When the threat of force or the use of force is applied to another country or actor in order to coerce them into altering behaviour that threatens us

28. Difference between the two • Deterrence exists to prevent changes to the status quo • Compellance forces a country to change its current behaviour using the threat of force or the use of force

29. Crisis Stability • Crisis Instability – Propensity to escalate from peace to crisis and crisis to war • Crisis stable – rarely get to crisis and crisis rarely gets to war • Crisis unstable – many things causes crisis and crisis often cause war

31. What makes deterrence work? • Both actors must engage in rational purposive behaviour motivated by a desire for survival • The targeted actor is unitary meaning they can enforce compliance with the demand articulated by the threatener

32. Communication of Intentions • Weapons exist primarily for the purpose of projecting intentions and having those intentions communicated persuasively to an adversary • If a deterrence posture can’t be communicated to the adversary then the adversary cannot be deterred

33. Effective Deterrence • Limit the inflationary value of threats • Limit lines drawn in the sand • History of follow up • Automatic response • Graduated escalation

34. http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/256925/november-30-2009/better-know-a-lobby---ploughshares-fundhttp://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/256925/november-30-2009/better-know-a-lobby---ploughshares-fund

35. Hotspots Section Cinco (Five)

36. United States vs Russia • Facts • 1,480 SNWs, 1,022 non-deployed SNWs, 2,000 TNWs • Magnitude • Size of countries • Horizontal escalation • Dead Hand • Timeframe • Minutemen III • Probability • Accidents • History

37. United States vs China • 90 Chinese missiles, 240 warheads • De-mate missiles, missile location, refueling • “Minimum deterrent posture” and NFU pledge • Counterforce vsCountervalue targeting

38. South China Sea • Territorial-base conflict • Resources in the region • Oil • Natural gas • No forum for negotiations

39. South China Sea • Territorial-base conflict • Resources in the region • Oil • Natural gas • No forum for negotiations

40. India vs Pakistan • 1947 – partition of British India • 1998 – nuclear capable

41. India vs Pakistan • Missile delivery • India – short range ballistic missiles • Pakistan – F16 air strikes • Lower yield weapons • Public health infrastructure

42. Israel • Only Middle East country with operational nuclear weapons • Covert nuclear capability and deterrence ”Samson grasped the two middle pillars on which the house rested, and braced himself against them, the one with his right hand and the other with his left. And Samson said, “Let me die with the Philistines!” And he bent with all his might so that the house fell on the lords and all the people who were in it. So the dead whom he killed at his death were more than those whom he killed in his life” - Judges 16: 29-30

43. Middle East • Small area but a lot of empty space • Regional relations and ethnic/tribal ties • No other nuclear countries • Iran

44. North Korea • Brief History • 1956 – Soviet Union begins training • 1984 – Nuclear reactors built • 1989 – US confirms nuclear program • 1993 – Missile testing begins • 2002 – AQ Khan • 2006 – 1st nuclear test (0.5kt) • 2009 – 2nd nuclear test (2kt) • 2012 – missile test • 2013 – 3rd nuclear test (6-7kt)

45. North Korea • Weapons • 50-60kg of plutonium • ?? HEU

46. Non-Nuclear Hotspots Section Seis (Six)

47. Chemical weapons • 14th Century Black Plague – 25% of European population • Spanish Flu after WWI – 100 million dead, disease adapted to host • Types • Choking agents (chlorine) • Blister agents (mustard gas) • Blood agents (cyanide) • Nerve agents (saringas) • Ideal chemical weapon is: • Highly lethal (inevitable immunity and pop density) • Easy, cheap, and safe to produce and store • Easy to distribute (speed of spread and response time)

48. Biological weapons • Types • Viruses (Smallpox, Ebola, AIDS, Foot & Mouth) • Microorganisms that produce toxins (Botulinum, Ricin, Tetanus) • Bacteria (Anthrax, Cholera, Plague) • Ideal biological weapon is: • Highly lethal • Easy, cheap, and safe to produce and store • Easily spread • Has a long incubation period

49. Terrorism • It’s not that bad • 9/11 - 2,000 dead • Difficult to pull off • Al-Qaeda weakening • Access to WMD • It’s that bad • Fear and panic, infrastructure • Access to WMD • National response