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Introduction to Sustainable Development

Introduction to Sustainable Development. Lecture A. Purpose of the Course. Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the Foundation of Future Society Provide a Foundation for Understanding and Implementing Sustainability Principles

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Introduction to Sustainable Development

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  1. Introduction to Sustainable Development Lecture A

  2. Purpose of the Course • Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the Foundation of Future Society • Provide a Foundation for Understanding and Implementing Sustainability Principles • Show the Importance of a Sustainable Community as the Key Concept • Indicate Methods for Implementing Sustainability in Various Social and Economic Sectors

  3. Reasons for this Course • Humankind is profoundly affecting the Earth: • Destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity • Global environmental problems: greenhouse warming, ozone depletion, toxification, soil erosion, emissions • Mass movements of materials • Introduction of biological agents: estrogen mimickers, genetically engineered products • Humankind does not understand or appreciate the role of ecosystems for our health and in our economy • Humanity may be crashing the critical planetary ecosystems • How do we change direction at this critical point in time? Globally? In Poland?

  4. Proposed Solution -Briefly • Sustainable development or sustainability • “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”[World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)] • Balancing environment, economy, and society’s needs • Sustainability Clarified: Satisfying lives for all within the means of nature—now and in the future. [Redefining Progress, 2002, www.rprogress.org]

  5. Some New Vocabulary • Sustainability • Substitutability • Deep Ecology • Factor 4 and Factor 10 • Carrying Capacity • Ecological Footprint • Ecological Rucksack • Adaptive Management • Ecological Economics • Environmental Ethics • Clean Production • Industrial Ecology • Eco-efficiency • MIPS

  6. The Twin Problems: Population and Consumption • Human population has been growing exponentially since the beginning of the industrial revolution (1.7%/year) • Industrial production has also been growing at an exponential rate (3.5%/year 1970-2000) • World fertilizer consumption is doubling every 15 years. Total use now is 15 times greater than the end of WWII. • In this century, consumption of energy and materials will increase by a Factor of 12 (2000-2100) if growth in population continues at the same rates Beyond the Limits to Growth, Meadows, Meadows, and Rander

  7. World Population Growth

  8. World Population Growth

  9. World Demographic Transition

  10. Population Growth over Time • 1650: 0.5 billion 0.3%/year DT=250 yrs • 1900: 1.6 billion 0.5%/year DT=140 yrs • 1970: 3.6 billion 2.1%/year DT= 34 yrs • Result: Superexponential growth, the rate of increase is increasing • 1990: 5.4 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs • 2000: 6.0 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs

  11. World Industrial Production

  12. Percent Change in Industrial Production from Previous Year

  13. World Fertilizer Use 1950-2000

  14. Worldwide Growth in Selected Activities 1970-2000 1970 2000 Population 3.6 billion 6.1 billion Automobile Production 22.5 million 40.9 million Oil consumption 2,189 MTOE 3,332 MTOE Natural gas consumption 1,022 MTOE 2,277 MTOE Coal consumption 1,635 MTOE 2,034 MTOE Wind Energy Capacity(MW) approx 0 18,100 GDP ($-1999) $16.3 trillion $43.2 trillion GDP ($-1999/capita $4,407 $7,102 AIDS Deaths approx 0 21.8 million

  15. Key Lesson about Growth Rates • Apparently small growth rates have massive consequences • World population growth rate is ‘only’ 1.7% • Buy means 78 million new people per year • World population doubled since 1960! • Why?

  16. Doubling Times Growth Rate, %/year Doubling Time (years) 0.1 700 0.5 140 1.0 70 2.0 35 3.0 23 4.0 18 5.0 14 6.0 10 7.0 7

  17. Example: Nigeria’s Population • Population growth rate: 2.7%/year Year Population (millions) 1990 118 2014 236 2038 472 2062 944 2086 1,888

  18. Rule of 72 72/Growth Rate in %/year = Doubling Time in Years Nigerian Example: 72/2.7% = 26.7 years

  19. One more example: Paper! • Double a sheet of paper: the thickness is doubled. • Double the sheet of paper 40 times: how thick is it? Thickness = 0.5 mm x 240 = 0.5 x 1.1 x 1012 = 5.5 x1011 mm = 550,000,000,000 mm = 550,000 km = distance from the Earth to the Moon!

  20. IPAT Formula Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology I = P x A x T Impact (throughput) of a population on the planet’s sources and sinks equals the population times its affluence times the damage done by the technologies supporting the affluence. Environmental impact/person Source: Paul Ehrlich

  21. Affecting IPAT Outcomes • Population (P) : family planning, female literacy, social welfare, role of women, land tenure • Affluence (A) : • Capital stock/person: values, prices, full costing, what do we want?, What is enough? • Material throughput/capital stock: product longevity, material choice, minimum materials design, recycling/reuse/recovery, scrap recovery • Technology (T) : • Energy/material throughput: End-use efficiency, conversion efficiency, distribution efficiency, system integration, process redesign • Environmental impact/Energy: Benign sources, scale, siting, technical mitigation, offsets

  22. Some Evidence of Real Problems • Humans are coopting 40% of terrestrial and 30% of aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al 1986)) • Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30% of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997) • Humans are moving 2x more material than all natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997) • Atmospheric CO2 has risen from 290 ppm (early 1880’s) to 315 ppm in 1958, 345 ppm in 1990, 369 ppm in 2000 • Falling grain production

  23. World Grain Production 1950-2006

  24. What is Sustainable Development? • Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs[World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)] • Agenda 21: In order to meet the challenges of environment and development, States decided to engage in a new global partnership ... sustainable development should become a priority item on the agenda of the international community[UN Conf on Env Dev, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992] • ... is nondeclining human well-being over time[David Pearce, Economics of Sustainable Development, 1994]

  25. More on Sustainable Development • A particular system that when considered in isolation has a positive balance in relation to its own costs and benefits (Ravetz 1992) • Improving the quality of life within the carrying capacity or supporting ecosystems (WCU 1991) • The use of energy and materials in an urban area in balance with what the region can supply continuously through natural processes such as photosynthesis, biological decomposition, and the biochemical processes which sustain life (Lyle 1994) • Something is 'sustainable' if it has the capacity to continue. (Sustainable London)

  26. Lester Brown (Worldwatch Institute) • Over the long term for sustainability: • Species Extinction <= Species Evolution • Soil Erosion <= Soil Formation • Forest Destruction <= Forest Regeneration • Carbon Emissions <= Carbon Fixation • Fish Catches <= Regeneration Capacity of Fisheries • Human Births <= Human Deaths

  27. Key Points • Sustainability is concerned with future generations, intergenerational justice, resources, environment • Three systems must be maintained in healthy a healthy relationship: ecological, social, and economic • Natural systems hold the key to human sustainability

  28. The Systems Natural (N) Social (S) Economic (E)

  29. N E S Proto-Sustainable Systems

  30. Truly Sustainable Systems S N E

  31. Paradigm Shifts

  32. Social problems • erosion of the family • educational system quality • crime and prisoners • decaying cities • Economic problems • unequal distribution of wealth • shift of productivity income, workers to capital owners • technology driven “creative destruction” • Environmental problems • loss of natural capital: rainforest • greenhouse warming and ozone depletion • loss of soil, over-fishing, over-grazing, over-foresting What is the connection between...?

  33. Thinking Sustainably: Observe Nature • There is no such thing as waste • Live off current solar income • Respect and foster diversity A key lesson from this course!

  34. General Sustainability Principles • minimizeresource consumption, use of non-renewables, pollution, toxics, waste • maximize efficiency, reuse, recycling, renewable resource use • foster conservation, understanding of natural systems functions, economic justice • focus on quality v. quantity, needs v. wants • redesign the economy and artifacts to mimic natural systems

  35. Waste = Pollution = Inefficiency = Lost $ • Positive Correlation: environmentalism & economic prosperity • Germany • environmental technologies • environmental policy = economic policy • improved environmental quality = improved competitiveness • Japan • 40% less energy in steel production than US, far less air pollution • defy conventional wisdom • Research Agency of Innovative Technology for the Earth: international competitiveness

  36. Perverse Economics • Environmental damage actually add to GNP • Depletion of natural resources adds to GNP (+ tax credits!!) • The polluter hardly pays • Waste disposal is heavily subsidized • Maximum ROI drives corporate decisions • Discount rate maximizes today’s consumption/depletion

  37. Strong vs. Weak Sustainability • Refers to different schools of thought • Strong: natural capital is irreplaceable • Weak: natural capital is substitutable by manmade capital • More discussion when we cover economic concepts

  38. Summary • Extraction of resource and environmental damage continuing and even accelerating • We are rapidly destroying adapted, diverse ecosystems crucial to both our economy and our survival • Growth as a basic assumption of the economic system is mathematically and physically impossible • Sustainability can help us change course to live within the constraints of nature with a high quality of life, to change our thinking.

  39. “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” - Albert Einstein

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