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Seek explanations for past changes in disease incidence

EDEN. E merging D iseases in a Changing E uropean E n vironment funded by EU Framework 6 (Nov.2004-2009). GIS & RS. TBD Network. Central/Eastern Europe Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia Czech Rep Slovenia Baltic States Latvia Estonia Lithuania. Modelling.

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Seek explanations for past changes in disease incidence

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  1. EDEN Emerging Diseases in a Changing European Environment funded by EU Framework 6 (Nov.2004-2009) GIS & RS TBD Network Central/Eastern Europe Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia Czech Rep Slovenia Baltic States Latvia Estonia Lithuania Modelling Western Italy Germany Spain UK Tick-borne diseases West Nile virus Rodent-borne diseases Malaria Leishmania African platform Datamanagement Biodiversity Seek explanations for past changes in disease incidence • Acquire, collate and analyse existing data from national archives • Spatial heterogeneities between and within countries TBE - relative increase in Baltics 1985/90 to 1993/98 Epidemiology Public health Human behaviour Climate Land-cover Tick populationsHost abundance Disproportional increase in Spring x 0-2 x 2-4 x 4-10 x 10-20 x 20-40 1998-00 1993-94 1991-92 Tick density A M J J A S O N Validate explanations with data for the present • Tick populations • Infection prevalence in ticks - TBEV, Borrelia, Rickettsia • Blood meal identification Make predictions about thefuture • Statistical and biological modelling Further information: Sarah Randolph, University of Oxford, UK sarah.randolph@zoology.ox.ac.uk

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