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Gwinnett Unified Plan

Gwinnett Unified Plan. Presentation to: Georgia Planning Association October 2, 2008. What Dooms Most Comprehensive Plans to Failure?. Many, if not most plans treat land use and transportation separately Most are based on a community vision that is possible, but not plausible

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Gwinnett Unified Plan

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  1. Gwinnett Unified Plan Presentation to: Georgia Planning Association October 2, 2008

  2. What Dooms Most Comprehensive Plans to Failure? • Many, if not most plans treat land use and transportation separately • Most are based on a community vision that is possible, but not plausible • There is seldom, if ever, a validation of the plan against the future economic potential of the community

  3. How is Gwinnett’s Unified Plan Different? • Combines the Comprehensive Plan, Comprehensive Transportation Plan, and the (HUD) Consolidated Plan into one planning effort. • Uses a Scenario-based approach to create possible futures, instead of a future vision based on the desires of a select group of people • Forecasts land use based on market realities • Tests the plausibility and fiscal impact of each Scenario using economic modeling

  4. What Is a Scenario? • A plausible Future that results from a series of Driving Forces and Assumptions about how Current Trends may vary in the future • Obviously, there can be an infinite number of Scenarios or plausible Futures • We chose three: • The Regional Economy Will Decline • The Regional Economy Will Continue as It Has • The Regional Economy Will Improve

  5. Region’s growth slows Gwinnett gains only 30% more people & 27% more jobs More transient population – fewer long-term residents Average income growth slows Limited neighborhood reinvestment Regional Slowdown Scenario An Unacceptable Outcome

  6. Region continues to prosper; current trends continue, but County average income declines Offers little relief from congestion No resources to address redevelopment Gwinnett gains 47% more people & 53% more jobs Entire County on public sewer Truly diverse community, no dominant majority Fairly low density development Middle of the Pack Scenario Most Likely Future without Intervention - So plan for it also!

  7. US economy strong; Region has massive job growth Gwinnett gains 76% more people & 106% more jobs Expand transit options International/multicultural segments of workforce grow High rises at key nodes & mixed-use development along major roads Redevelopment of older areas International Gateway Scenario

  8. Unified Plan is Based on Rigorous Economic and Fiscal Modeling • To project expansion of County Land use under varying economic conditions, and • To determine the impact of the Plan on the Tax Digest

  9. Beyond ConsultantsKey Staff Members Included: • Glenn Stephens, Director, Planning and Development • Bryan Lackey, Deputy Director • Steven A. Logan, AICP, Director of Planning • Nancy Lovingood, AICP, Manager of Long-Range Planning • Patrick Quinn, Manager of Planning Data Services • Jeff West, Manger of Current Planning • James Pugsley, Planner III • David Gill, Planner III • Rebecca Peed, Planner II

  10. Technical Advisory Committee • A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Comprised of: • Impacted County Departments, • Medical Community, • Municipal Representatives, • School System, and • Economic Development Director

  11. Background Trends and Assumptions Include:

  12. Continued but slower growth…

  13. Incomes Continue their Trend Households in Each Regional Quintile as a Percent of Total Households

  14. …and Gwinnett will continue to diversifyPercent Distribution of Population by Ethnic/Racial Group Ethnic/Racial information required by HUD for Consolidated Plan submission

  15. Assumptions of the Model • Fire, Police, and general gov’t expenditures directly affected by constituent wealth. • Service demand within specific land use type varies across Gwinnett, but constant across time. • Persons/household same for each resid’l land use type and same across unincorp. Gwinnett. • Income distributions differ across Gwinnett. • Revenue contributions differ by land use type.

  16. Management Costs and Revenue Allocations Focus is on contribution of revenues and expenditures by land use

  17. WebFit Model Slowdown Scenario Surplus in 2030 $9 million 2% of revenues Middle Scenario Deficit in 2030 $7 million 0.7% of revenues Gateway Scenario Deficit in 2030 $44 million 4.6% of revenues Enhanced Model Slowdown Scenario Deficit in 2030 $358 - $532 million 43.7% - 64.9% of revenues Middle Scenario Deficit in 2030 $111 - $192 million 12% - 21% of revenues Gateway Scenario Deficit in 2030 $63 - $81 million 6.5% - 8% of revenues Comparison Outcomes (without interventions)

  18. Enhanced Fiscal Model • Builds on the existing WebFIT model • Does not consider capital income or costs • Adjusts for level of police and fire services • Based on supporting evidence and interviews • Adjust “poverty” spending • Poverty spending includes • Public health • Public welfare & social services • Community development • Includes increased costs of non-poverty spending such as police services, fire services, and general government • Weighted for service need in sub-county areas (Sub-county areas used for analysis only-not used in intervention recommendations)

  19. Beyond Economics • Transportation Modeling • Water and Sewer Modeling

  20. Sewer Impacts-Change in FlowFrom 2003 Master Plan Regional Slowdown International Gateway Middle of the Pack

  21. Intervention Development and Testing (slide 1) • Creation of the Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) • 25 Individuals chosen • to represent various interest groups in the County • to represent ethnic diversity of the County • PAC developed interventions or policies to address the various dynamics presented by the Scenarios • Economic/Fiscal and Land Use Models were then calibrated to account for the Interventions

  22. Intervention Development and Testing • Focus Groups were used to test the Interventions among various ethnic groups (Hispanic, Korean, Viet Namese, and African-American) • Public Information Meetings (PIMs) were held to solicit feed-back from the general public.

  23. Major Themes of the Unified Plan • Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health • Foster Redevelopment • Maintain Mobility and Accessibility • Provide More Housing Choice • Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place” DRAFT

  24. Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health DRAFT

  25. Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health • Promote Major Mixed-Use Developments • Protect Large, Well-Located Parcels/Areas for Office • Strategic Placement of Sewer • Revise Current Millage Rates • Promote University Parkway as R & D Corridor • Employ Debt Financing of Major Infrastructure • Obtain Appropriate Balance of Retail • (TDR shown on Housing Map) DRAFT

  26. Foster Redevelopment DRAFT

  27. Foster Redevelopment • Institute a Variety of Redevelopment Incentives • Promote Densification in Specific Areas • Use Tax Allocation Districts (TADs) • Promoted Shared Infrastructure Facilities • Allow “corner stores” within specified Med/High Density Areas DRAFT

  28. Maintain Mobility and Accessibility DRAFT

  29. Maintain Mobility and Accessibility • Enhance Signal Coordination and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) • Manage Access on Arterials • Enhance Incident Management (Traffic Control Center) • Establish Road Connectivity Requirement • Create Transit-Oriented Development at Appropriate Sites • Establish a More Extensive Transit System • Pursue Strategic Road Widening and New Alignments DRAFT

  30. Provide More Housing Choice DRAFT

  31. Provide More Housing Choice • Establish and Provide Access to More Executive Housing • Preserve Existing Workforce Housing • Expand Maintenance and Rehabilitation Assistance to Homeowners and Small Businesses • Use Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) DRAFT

  32. Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place” DRAFT

  33. Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place” • Improve the Walkability of Gwinnett’s Activity Centers and Neighborhoods • Support and Promote the Expanded Four Year College • Invest in After School Programs • Enhance Development Aesthetics • Provide Venues to Celebrate Growing Cultural Diversity of the County • Expand Presence of “Arts Community” • Provide Incentives for Enhanced Openspace/Trails • Use Development Regulations to Create Local Parks • Acquire Surplus Industrial or Commercial Sites for Open Space/Recreation DRAFT

  34. Composite Map DRAFT

  35. Next Steps • Held public information meetings at 4 sites around county in August. • Final Meeting with PAC was held September 18, 2008 • PB Revised Draft and Submitted Final Draft (September ’08) • Present Final Draft to Board of Commissioners (October 7, 2008) • Public Hearings (November ’08)

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