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Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing

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Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing

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  1. Assessing the Effect of Visualizationson Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing LuanaMicallef Pierre Dragicevic Jean-Daniel Fekete

  2. The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%. The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%. The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%. If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer? 0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%

  3. ATTENTION

  4. The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%. The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%. The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%. If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer? 0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%

  5. The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%. The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%. The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%. If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer? 0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%

  6. P ( Cancer | Positive Mammography ) = 7.8%

  7. 95 doctors out of 100 said the answer is between70% to 80%

  8. Why the correct answer is so low

  9. Bayes’ Theorem P ( cancer | +ve mammography ) = P ( +ve mammography | cancer) P (+ve mammography | cancer) + P (+ve mammography | cancer)

  10. The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%. women with cancer women without cancer

  11. If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer? The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%. The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%. 7.8% women with cancer women without cancer

  12. Can such visualizations facilitate Bayesian reasoning

  13. Proposed Visualizations

  14. contingency table signal detection curves trees Bayesian boxes bar-grain boxes

  15. + Euler diagram frequency grid

  16. Euler diagram + glyphs

  17. Previous Studies Mainly in Psychology Claim that Bayesian problem representation impacts comprehension

  18. but … InconsistentfindingsMost effective Bayesian problem representation? UNCLEAR Inconsistent and sometimes inappropriate diagram designs Diagrams do not match textual information

  19. (Slomanet al., 2003)

  20. Area-Proportional Not Area-Proportional

  21. and the subjects … Specific background usually highly-focused university students Specific age group Sometimes, specific department carried out as part of their course

  22. so … • cannotgeneralize their findings toa more diverse population of laypeople

  23. Our Work Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing

  24. to identify… • - the most effective visualization for the crowd • - whether hybrid visualizations are helpful • - the link between the visualizations and different spatial and numeracy abilities

  25. but… • how appropriate is

  26. Amazon MTurk Used and evaluated for research and InfoVis Demographics of workers are well-understood Captures aspects of real-world problem solving better - alarge diverse population with different backgrounds, education, occupations, age, gender - workers carry out tasks rapidly but accurately to improve their rating - reduces experimental biases, as demand characteristics

  27. http://www.eulerdiagrams.org/eulerGlyphs

  28. Experiment

  29. 168 workers with MTurk approval rate ≥ 95%

  30. Demographics

  31. 25 min $1

  32. 3 Bayesian problems classics in Psychology in natural frequencies format

  33. followed by • objective and subjective numeracy tests • paper folding spatial abilities test • brief questionnaire