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BREXIT:RAMIFICATIONS ONTHEUKANDTHEEU AnAcademicpresentationby Dr.NancyAgnes,Head,TechnicalOperations,TutorsIndia Group www.tutorsindia.com Email:info@tutorsindia.com
Today'sDiscussion OUTLINE Introduction ImplicationsofBrexitontheUKandEU Impactonthe UK Growth Jobs ImpactontheEU Conclusion
INTRODUCTION 31stDecember,2020wasofficiallythelastdayofthetransitionperiodthatallowedthe UnitedKingdom(UK) tomake theirexitfrom theEuropeanUnion(EU). Theendofthistransitionperiodwhichwasaratherlengthyprocedurewasoverseenby two Prime Ministers and was also bogged with many extensions and delays, which split theUK (Shannon Schumacher, 2019). TheprocessofmakinganexitfromtheEUwasnotaneasyprocessandwasquite intricate.
[Exclusive Assignment Topic ideas helpfrom Experts Academic researchers] The erstwhile Prime Minister of the UK – Theresa May, subsequent to the will of the voters’,processedthenotificationforwithdrawalasunderArticle50totheEUon29th March,2017. An agreement for withdrawal was deliberated with the EU which presented their new termsofassociation.However,sincetheParliamentwasdivided,shefailedtoacquire anapproval (Nigel Walker, 2021). MaywassucceededbyBorisJohnsonwhotookoverfromherasthePrimeMinister ofthe UK.
TheConservativepartyofJohnsonwassuccessfulinsubsequentlyacquiringamajority during the royally mandated election which was held on 12th December, 2019 (Baker & Uberoi,2019). Thisfacilitated Johnson to acquirethe necessary approval from theParliamentfor the withdrawal agreement which was negotiatedwith the EU. Theagreementreceivedtherequiredlegislativeroyalassenton23rdJanuary,2020.It was on this date that the queen agreed to convert this bill into a law (UK Parliament, 2021). Formally,theUKmadeitexitfromtheEUon31stJanuary,2020buttheymovedintoa periodoftransitionwhicheventually cametoanend on31stDecember,2020.
AgreementwithregardstotheEU-UKTradeandCooperationwasacceptedon24th December, 2020 and signed six days later (European Council, 2020) i.e, on the 30th December,2020. Everything said and done, now that the UK has officially made its exit from the EU, thereforeitisnecessarytocomprehendtheinsinuationsofthisexitfortheUKaswell asthe EU. [ReallythinkingofyourBachelorthesis?GetBachelorthesistopicideasEuropiaan Unionfrom Tutors India]
The decision of the UK to exit the EU has for onecreatedalotofuncertaintywithregardsto the future of relationships in terms of trade followingBrexit. IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT ON THEUKANDEU It has been stated by Klaus Schwab (2017) the financial repercussions arising from the UK’s exitvotecouldalreadybefelt.Inaddition,there is tremendous scope that such impacts would definitely increase following the implementation ofArticle50fromtheLisbon Treaty.
TheBankofEnglandhasremarkedthatowingtoBrexit,amaterialslumphasbeen witnessed in the prices of certain European area risky assets, for example, bank equities, where a drop in prices would be aggravated through concerns pertaining to the profitability of certain banks in the Europe region (Bank of England, 2016) andthis waseven before theleave vote wasapproved.
IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT ONTHEUKANDEU BrexithasalreadymadeatremendousimpactontheUK.Therehasbeenadrastic slowdown in the UK economy and several organizations have shifted their headquartersto the EU. Needlesstosayithasalsoimpactedjobsandgrowth.
GROWTH ThegrowthoftheeconomyhasbeenseverelyimpactedbyBrexitandthisislargely attributedtotheuncertainty thatrevolvesaround theeventualoutcome. TheeconomicgrowthoftheUKslowedfrom2.4%during2015to1.0%during2019 owingto uncertainty from Brexit. IthasbeenestimatedbythegovernmentintheUKthatthegrowthoftheUKwould befurther loweredby 6.7%over the forthcoming15 years. Thoughtheprevalenttermsoffreetradewereassumed,immigrationcontinuedtobe restricted(Daniel Harari, 2019).
Figure1:Long-termGDPImpactfromBrexitintheUKSource:DanielHarari,(2019)Figure1:Long-termGDPImpactfromBrexitintheUKSource:DanielHarari,(2019) NextBlog:InstructionstoWriteLawAssignments
JOBS YoungworkersintheUKweremosthitbyBrexit. Ashortageof3millionskilledworkerswillbeexperiencedbyGermanyby2030(The Local,2017). However, following Brexit, these jobs might not be readily available to workers from the UK.Further,employersacrosstheUKarefindingitchallengingtofindcandidatesasEU bornworkersleft theUK, andtheirnumbers droppedby 95%during 2017. Thishasmadeamassiveimpactonlow-skilledandmedium-skilledoccupationslargely.
Brexit is largely deemed as a vote that was not in favour of globalization and as an outcome it has weakened the forcesacrosstheEUthatwereinfavourofincorporation. IMPACTONTHE EU Members from the right-wing anti-immigration parties wereespeciallyanti-EUwithinGermanyandFrance. Iftheymanagedtogainmuchground,theywouldbeina positionto compelan anti-EUvote. IncaseeitherFranceorGermanymakesanexit,theEU standstoloseitsmostrobusteconomiesanditwould leadtoadissolutionoftheEUassuch.
Atthesametime,alargesegmentofcitizensfromtheEUcontinuetoextendtheirfull supportto the union. ThePewResearchCenterconductedanextensiveresearchthroughoutten Europeannationshasrevealedthatalmost75%oftherespondentswhoparticipated in the research were of the belief that peace was promoted by the EU, while 55% opinedthat the EUsupported prosperity. Also,athirdoftherespondentsperceivedadiminishingroleoftheUK(Wikeetal., 2019).
CONCLUSION In short, it has been observed that following the referendum of the UK to exit from theEU,thestandardmeasuresareindicativeofasubstantialgrowthinthelevelof uncertainty. Furthermore,ithasbeennotedthatthereishighscopethatBrexitwouldimpatnot just the UK but also the economy in other parts of the EU via diverse channels of transmission,forexample;trade,immigration,uncertaintyandinvestment. Moreover,itisclearthatinthenearfuture,themajorbruntofBrexitwouldproveto beincreaseduncertaintyintermsof economicaswellaspolitical aspects.
Suchissueshavethepotentialtoreducethepaceofinvestmentgrowthandprivate consumption along with foreign trade, essentially within the UK; though the impact ofBrexit wouldalso be feltmajorly within theEU too. TutorsIndiaoffersthePoliticalScienceDissertationWritingAssistance.Hire anExperiencedWritingServicetoGetyourPoliticsthesisdoneonlineFast.
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