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Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy.

Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy. Christian Bourque Research Vice-President and Senior Partner. In an Nutshell. A look back in time How our industry saw the campaign How well we did: Do we deserve an A or a C?

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Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy.

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  1. Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy. Christian Bourque Research Vice-President and Senior Partner

  2. In an Nutshell • A look back in time • How our industry saw the campaign • How well we did: Do we deserve an A or a C? • Voter Behaviour: Exit Poll Research and the Ballot Box Bonus • Final thoughts …

  3. Do You Remember Back Then …

  4. The Industry Was Mostly Right in 2006

  5. Lots of Talk, Lots of Surveys, Little Movement

  6. The Writ is Dropped!

  7. On Average, the Patient Was Dead Wikipedia

  8. Let’s Agree on an A- OK … B+

  9. We All Said Conservative Minority

  10. La Belle Province

  11. Back to the Future • On average, in 2006, except for Leger and Crop, the industry was 7 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 42% - Leger 40%, Crop 44%) • On average, in 2008, except for Leger, the industry was 8 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 38% - Leger 37%) • Is there such a thing as a massive stampede of Quebec headless chickens leaving the BQ in the last 24 hours of a campaign each and every election? • The short answer: • Massive spread in response rates between francophones and non-francophones • Overnight field windows do not capture more discreet voters • The issue of accents • If you don’t weight by language most used in household … you are toast!

  12. The Exit Poll and How it Answers ‘What changed’ Or the Ballot Box Bonus Hypothesis

  13. Methodology • On-line survey, using the Legerweb.com panel, conducted between 6:00 and 9:30 Eastern on October 14th, among respondents who said they had voted at the election. • National sample of 4,524 Canadians (18+) of all regions. Data was weighted by region only.

  14. The Ultimate Moment of Decision When, exactly, did you decide to support this political party?

  15. No Issue Election ?

  16. Canadians Vote for Losers! Which party do you think will win the election?

  17. Canadians Vote for Losers! Did you essentially vote FOR (insert vote) or vote AGAINST the conservatives? (Base: 2707)

  18. Final Thoughts …

  19. See you in two years! • We can all agree our industry is in good shape overall. • We need fine-tuning, not an overhaul! • If the dials don’t move, why do we do rolling polls published every morning? How does that help our industry? • Over-interpretation by the media • We are about the campaign but not the campaign • ‘Liberals Free-Falling: New Poll Shows’ (down 2% based on n=400) • How can we refine our art? • Should we move to a likely voter model? Since our political participation is as laughable as the US, should we adopt their strategy? • Should our weighting schemes evolve to account for how Canada has changed? • Are we ready to consider hybrid of fully on-line methodologies?

  20. To get the results you have never had, you need to do what you have never done 8/14/2014

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