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Accelerating success.

Washington State Hotel & Lodging Association. 2010 Convention & Trade Show. October 11, 2010. Christopher A. Kraus, MAI Senior Vice President chris.kraus@pkfc.com | 406.582.8189 Colliers PKF Consulting USA. Accelerating success. Presentation Outline.

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Accelerating success.

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  1. Washington State Hotel & Lodging Association 2010 Convention & Trade Show October 11, 2010 Christopher A. Kraus, MAISenior Vice Presidentchris.kraus@pkfc.com | 406.582.8189Colliers PKF Consulting USA Accelerating success.

  2. Presentation Outline National Economy and Hotel Market Overview Seattle Market Overview and Four Year Forecast Spokane Four Year Forecast

  3. Accuracy Assessment

  4. U.S. Lodging Market Overview

  5. The Great Recession is Over… Recessions since World War II Sources: NBER, BEA, FRB, BLS, Moody’s Economy.com

  6. U.S. Total Employment Levels 8.3 Million Jobs Lost – 5 Years From Peak-to-Peak We’re Here 20 Quarters 17 Quarters 12 Quarters

  7. Economic Assumptions Driving Our Forecasts: Better Quicker Source: Moody’s Economy.com, September 2010 (July 2010) Updated 9/17/2010 - aw

  8. The Hotel Market Cycle Moving Past the Trough Rapid Development Rapid Development Rapid Development Development Picks Up Development Picks Up Lodging Decline, Leads Other Sectors Lodging Decline, Leads Other Sectors Equilibrium ADR Equilibrium ADR 2013-2014 U.S. is Here Long Run Occupancy Long Run Occupancy 2011-2012 A Year Ago ADR and Margins Recover Occupancy Declines, ADR Follows Development Slows Occupancy Recovers Development at Minimum Levels Lodging Recovers, Lags Other Sectors

  9. Current Forecast – October 2010- a Quicker Turnaround ?

  10. National Horizon October 2010 Update Record Decline A Quicker Turnaround? Record Increase Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons® Report, Smith Travel Research

  11. Recovery Will Be Strong Through 2013 +10.8% - 2011F +17.9% - 2012F +21.7% - 2013F +64.6% - 1943 -19.4% - 2001 -22.4% - 1938 -35.4% - 2009 Note: * Before deductions for capital reserve, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Source: Colliers PKF-HR, Trends® in the Hotel Industry sample.

  12. Seattle Lodging Market Overview

  13. Seattle Lodging Market Overview Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons® Report, Smith Travel Research

  14. Factors Impacting Lodging Demand WASHINGTON STATE CONVENTION AND TRADE CENTER LOCAL ECONOMY SEA-TAC AIRPORT LODGING SUPPLY

  15. Employment Levels and Unemployment Rate Employment levels return to 2008 levels in 2012. Projection Historical Historical Projection

  16. Downtown SeattleLodging Supply Change

  17. Seattle Convention & Visitors BureauConvention Calendar Outlook 2007 was the strongest convention year on record

  18. Sea-TacAirport Passenger Statistics First eight months of 2010 show decline of 0.2% Passenger count decreased by only 3.0% in 2009 Record numbers in 2008 – nearly 32.2 million total passengers

  19. How Will This Impact Seattle?

  20. Seattle Four Year ForecastAll Hotels Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons® Report, Smith Travel Research Sample represents greater Seattle area consisting of more than 40,000 hotel rooms

  21. How About Spokane?

  22. Spokane Four Year ForecastAll Hotels Note: Sample represents Spokane County, consisting of more than 7,000 hotel rooms

  23. Questions?

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