THORIC CEDERSTROM, PHD ; PATRICIA COSTA, MPP ; ERIC SARRIOT, MD, PHD

1. ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY MAPPING IN THE MENA REGION DURING THE 2007-2008 FOOD PRICE CRISIS THORIC CEDERSTROM, PHD ; PATRICIA COSTA, MPP ; ERIC SARRIOT, MD, PHD 11 November 2009

2. Context • 2007 and 2008, international prices for food and fuel skyrocketed • Chronically malnourished people jumped from 850 million in 2005 to 963 million today • The economic, social and health consequences have only begun to be understood and measured • The ICF Macro Team conducted two field assessments in Djibouti and Morocco • Secondary review of overall food Crisis and impact in the MENA region

3. Global Food Price Fluctuation (FAO Stat)

4. Study objectives • What monitoring systems and measurement instruments (FIVIMS) Exist? • What were the effects on poor and vulnerable populations? • What has been the governments’ (and other stakeholders) Response? • What is the role of UNICEF in conjunction with its partners?

5. Methodology • Document review (recent studies; grey lit.) • Country studies • Regional review • In-depth interviews in Morocco and Djibouti • Who / where are the most vulnerable? • How are they identified and located? • How did the recent food crisis affect them? • How did your government / organization respond?

6. Vulnerability to food insecurity “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritional food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO 1996). “Vulnerability” = exposure to risk/ability to cope Concepts developed in 1975 at the first World Food Summit in Rome.

7. What happens when prices rise? Increase intake of lower quality cereals and food Decrease energy and protein intake Decrease intake of staple foods Increase in Protein Energy Malnutrition Decrease micronutrient Decrease intake of non – staple foods Increase of food prices Decrease of real income Increase time spent on income generating activities Decrease caretaking Increase in Micronutrient Malnutrition Decrease expenditure on Health, education and non-food items Increase incidence of negative coping mechanisms (prostitution, child labor) Increase and severity of illnesses Increase in Stunting Decrease in remittances from urban to rural areas

8. I - Djibouti

9. Djibouti: national vulnerabilities to the food price crisis: • Economic • Environmental • Governmental • Health Services • Human Capital • Regional Unrest • Infrastructure

10. Health indicators Djibouti

11. Djibouti: Food security and vulnerability mapping systems • Nascent stages of developing food security and vulnerability mapping systems. • National Food Security Strategy Existent but not operational • Lack of statistics and data, last census in 1983 • No culture of monitoring and evaluation

12. Djibouti: Government responses • Eliminated taxes in five basic food commodities • Created a Surveillance Brigade that monitored prices at the retail level • Promoted its agriculture sector • Leased land in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Malawi • Development of a National Food Security Strategy

13. Impacts of food crisis obscured by prolonged drought Coping mechanisms for seasonal food insecurity employed Massive outmigration from rural areas Reliance on remittances disrupted Under-nutrition critically high Food aid – major factor Vulnerable Populations

14. II - Morocco

15. Morocco: national vulnerabilities to the food price crisis • Economic & Agriculture • Governmental • Health Services • Human Capital • Infrastructure

16. Health indicators Morocco

17. Food security and vulnerability mapping systems • No formal FIVIMS in place • Some data available but the country has yet to engage in systematic monitoring and evaluations • HCP in charge of Data collection and poverty mapping. Data collection for FIVIMS not coordinated • Other ministries collect some data and conduct sporadic surveys (health, Agriculture, Finance) but questions exist about reliability • Lack of Food Security Strategy

18. Impacts of food crisis on vulnerable populations: children • Majority of poor, food insecure & vulnerable is rural • Increased numbers of street children, begging and anti-social behavior • Alarming rates of child labor and abuse (domestic workers, artisan industry, child prostitution) • High rates of (failed) immigration to Europe • High rates of malnutrition • Increased drop out from education, with long-term consequences on quality of life.

19. Government responses (and other mitigating factors) • Direct government responses: • Subsidies of primary food commodities, subsidies to wheat producers, and elimination/reduction of tariffs • Other mitigating factors: • Microfinance • INDH/ONDH • Maroc Plan Vert • Fortification Program

20. III - MENA

21. Two Ends of the MENA Spectrum • Morocco: able to respond with effective mitigating interventions & softened the effects of the price increases on its population (most vulnerable??) • Djibouti: only able to implement a narrow range of responses to protect its citizens. • In both cases, though, the price increases were felt at the household level, even among more food secure social strata, forcing consumers to make hard choices on food consumption and other basic livelihood expenditures. • And also in both cases, the necessary data were not available determine what were the specific impacts on the livelihoods of each country’s food insecure and vulnerable populations. • Neither country had integrated data-collection systems • Both countries pushed by the situation to come up with strategic plans to address the longer-term food security issues they face From the Summary Report

22. Common Themes Across MENA Region • Limited food access • Demand pressures driven by urbanized young population • Limited supply of agriculture • Limited water supply • Rural poverty • Low food stability / preparedness/ vulnerability to shocks • Poor information systems • Poor Food Security Monitoring • High rates of stunting, indicating a chronic malnutrition problem in vulnerable & food insecure population groups

23. MENA Government Responses

24. MENA-wide Recommendations to UNICEF • Improve the effectiveness of social safety nets for the region’s most vulnerable populations. • Identify and address the underlying causes of malnutrition in MENA countries that have persistently high rates of malnutrition, especially stunting. • Work with communities to promote best choices for optimal nutrition. • Protect and Develop Critical Water Resources. • Expand child and women protection efforts to include livelihood initiatives of vulnerable households. • Conduct additional studies to better understand local causal links and develop more effective programs.

25. Thank You.